When Miguel Montero went down with his meniscus injury in early April, just about every Diamondbacks fan accompanied their angst over Montero's six-week absence with a slight sigh of relief that Chris Snyder was still on the roster. It was well-documented that Snyder would have been dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays for first baseman Lyle Overbay were it not for Snyder failing his physical. It's worth noting that Overbay now has a triple-slash line of .184/.287/.345 for a .632 OPS, .279 wOBA, and -0.3 WAR in 25 games due to a huge spike in K-Rate and a slight dip in BB-Rate, albeit with a low BABIP of .241 (by comparison, Adam LaRoche, who was signed after the Overbay acquisition fell through, has already contributed 0.6 WAR in 21 games with only a slightly-inflated .333 BABIP).
And since Montero went down, Snyder, a guy we were once actively trying to pawn off on other teams, has performed more than admirably. With just a little help from BABIP inflation through 18 games, he's on pace to set new career highs in OBP (.357), SLG (.508), wOBA (.373), and WAR (3.3 - projected for 100 games), with those projections coming before blasting another homer and drawing two walks against the Astros Monday (as well as all stats presented later on in this article). It is largely assumed that when Montero returns, the D'backs will be free to deal Snyder to one of the many teams in need of catching help. But if the D'backs are in the thick of a Division or Wild Card hunt, why would you deal a catcher who is on-pace for a WAR total higher than his replacement's career high (Montero's 2009 WAR of 3.0), especially if that replacement is returning from an injury and was already known to be suspect defensively? The pros and cons of possibly moving Chris Snyder follow the jump.
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Pros:
- There's plenty of demand:
A quick glance at last summer's free agent spending spree on mediocre catching is indicative that there is a lack of solid catchers available to teams, and thus there is a premium on good catchers. $6MM to Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. $4.5MM to Bengie Molina (blocking Buster Posey from seeing everyday time). Heck, the first thing I wrote for the SnakePit was a FanPost detailing which teams could be interested in trading for Snyder last summer, and it was quite a lot of them. It's been well-documented here. So you have to believe that a team like the Red Sox, with a stuffed farm system and tons of assets at its disposal, would be willing to fork over a huge value for Snyder, since their catchers, Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez, are both guys who no longer belong behind the dish. Could we coax the Sox into overpaying? Probably.
- Help fix the bullpen, help replenish the farm system:
As the cries for more effective work from the bullpen continue from nearly every Diamondbacks fan, we all have to face facts at some point. Regardless of hopes that regression will occur to bring down the HR/FB rates of the 'pen, there always remains the chance that it won't regress, or that won't begin to regress quickly enough, which could continue to torpedo the season. And since, as explained above, there's likely to be teams willing to deal a large amount of assets for Snyder, we could definitely get our hands on a premier relief arm in a Snyder package. And since any position player is worth more than a relief arm, we could also replenish our horrible farm system in one fell swoop by raiding a trade partner's farm system.
- Sell high, and while you have the chance:
Snyder currently has a BABIP of .324. While this wouldn't be at all alarming for any other player, we're talking about a big Texas boy here, and he doesn't get to first all that quickly on balls in play. In fact, his career BABIP is .276. Further, his ISO is .246, with his previous career high (minimum 30 games) was .216 back in 2008. Being realistic, it's hard to imagine Snyder maintaining this level of play for a full season, not to mention the rest of his current contract.
In addition, Snyder's injury history is well-documented. But in the midst of his amazing season, I'd be willing to bet that a lot of teams would overlook that right now to help solve their short-term problems at the catcher position. But what happens if Snyder goes down again for an extended period of time? His value to us diminishes, his trade value plummets, and we're stuck with his salary on our books for the next couple years, the reason why we were so desperately trying to get rid of him last summer. Trades intrinsically involve risk, but in this case, choosing not to make a deal carries a greater-than-usual amount of risk as well.
Cons:
- Will Montero stay behind the dish?
Now, this isn't me advocating for Montero to be moved to a new position anytime soon. If you translate his 2009 UZR as a catcher into RAR (-1.0), then factor in the discrepancy between the position adjustments for catcher and third base (approx 7.5 RAR), Montero would have to be worth around six and a half runs defensively at third base to justify a move (assuming offensive stability). But it doesn't take a scientist to figure out that Miguel Montero's value as a catcher comes from his bat. And, to top it off, Montero is currently out with a knee injury. What if he returns, but can't even muster anything close to a -1.0 RAR defensively? What if a move to third base, or to first base with Mark Reynolds' growing proficiency at third, really becomes the best option for Miguel? We would be desperately in need of a starting-caliber catcher, and having one relatively cost-controlled would prevent us from having to delve into the disgusting free agent catching market.
- What to make of John Hester?
Hester debuted at the end of last year and had a relatively strong showing, with a .729 OPS and .317 wOBA combining with a neutral UZR and positional adjustments to make him worth a run above replacement in just 15 games. In the off-season, the organization's belief in Hester to be a serviceable backup was part of what led the team to shop Snyder so aggressively. But not even the heavy positional adjustments from catching has saved Hester's WAR in his short seven-game stint in the majors this year, as a .666 OPS and -1.0 UZR have left him ever so slightly below replacement level.
Don't mistake the intention of that paragraph, though. It is not to dismiss John Hester. He's made some crappy plays behind the plate to start this season, to be sure, and he also came up short a couple times against the Cubs with the bat, but making a judgment of Hester after 22 major league games in any way would be irrational. What I mean to say is that before this season, there wasn't much not to like about Hester. He was a AAA All-Star, a guy known for his defensive prowess who developed a good bat, and he had a successful cup of coffee in the big leagues. He was a cost-controlled option as a backup catcher that allowed us the chance to deal Snyder and invest that money elsewhere. But the start of this season has reminded us that we still don't know what we have in Hester, and the fantastic hitter's environment of Reno has once again cast doubt upon his AAA accomplishments (something tells me we'll have a good reason to leave Reno in a couple years...). Dealing Snyder would require utmost confidence in Hester's ability to be the full-time backup and injury-replacement starter to Montero, or even to take Montero's job if Montero cannot cut it behind the plate, as mentioned above. And at this point, it's hard to imagine us having that kind of confidence in Hester.
I think that covers most of what I wanted to say, and if there's more I can always go back and edit it a little bit. But it's clearly a situation to keep an eye on - after all, not many teams can say that they have two starting catchers, and it might not be a stretch to say that our Montero/Snyder platoon falls only behind Minnesota's Mauer/Mauer platoon in terms of production from the catcher spot.
What's that you say? You want a conclusion about what I think we should do? Hah! Darned if I know.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Hatchling Report 5/1/2010
I figured it's time for a quick update of the farm system, especially since I won't be able to post much for the next few days aside from my Sunday recap during finals, then I have just a couple days before the end of the year (which will largely be spent with LadySouthBend), and then head to Wisconsin to visit family (where there is no intarwebz), and then have a day before starting work and my fast from the SnakePit. Random note: I'll try to put what I put my writings on my personal blog (that would be here), at "The Token White Guy" in case you care to follow. Then again, I haven't received confirmation that I'll be allowed to do so. So, without any further ado, another Hatchlings report.
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AAA Reno:
Good things:
First, with the recent call-ups of Dan Stange and Kevin Mulvey, what has been largely ignored and uncovered by the news is the promotion of Josh Collmenter from Hi-A to AAA and assignment of Brad Gemberling to Hi-A from Extended Spring Training (Gemberling threw four innings and allowed two earned runs in his start for Visalia on Thursday). Collmenter made his first start for Reno tonight, and after posting a 2.40 ERA with a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 15 innings for Visalia (wonder why he jumped an extra level now?) in three starts, decided that that simply wasn't good enough. So he struck out 8 PCL hitters while walking nobody in seven shutout PCL innings in his first PCL start and throwing a measly 89 PCL pitches. Should I emphasize the fact that he did this in the PCL any more? This guy is for real. Great change-up (i.e. he's got secondary stuff that will actually allow him to be successful in upper level/the majors) and he's got the K-rates throughout the minors to show that he can definitely be a back-of-the-rotation guy for us within the next year or so, or as a September call-up guy in the 'pen. There were age concerns at Hi-A for him, but now that he's up at Reno, he's on track to possibly reach the majors in 2011.
Cesar Valdez continues to be awesome, and now has a 25:5 K:BB ratio through 23.2 innings pitched. I expect to see Valdez starting Monday in the big leagues, especially after Kevin Mulvey's suck-filled relief effort yesterday.
Jason Urquidez has a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings pitched with a 17:3 K:BB ratio and no homers allowed. If Kroenke continues sucking, expect Urquidez to take his spot on the 40-man Roster and find himself in the porous D'backs' bullpen at some point this year, perhaps very quickly.
Despite not being mentioned as a rotation possibility in the majors, likely because he started at Mobile, Matt Torra currently leads the Reno rotation with his ERA of 3.32 through three starts, and his FIP is even lower, at 2.99, though a really low HR/FB rate is certainly helping him.
Pedro Ciriaco has been pretty bad since his return to Reno. At least that's the original prognosis upon observing his miserable .184 batting average. However, he has just 6 K's in 38 ABs to go with a walk (a solid ratio considering we're talking about Pedro Ciriaco here...), to go with two homers, a triple, a double, and two stolen bases (0 CS) in nine games. That means a BABIP of .167. If his BABIP were, say, .300, he'd be batting .289 with a .308 OBP and .526 SLG (.834 OPS). From a guy I've heard described as a "defensive wizard" at shortstop, that's pretty nice. Are the power numbers sustainable? Probably not. But the same can be said about that awful BABIP, so you have to take the inevitability of regression as good news for the kid.
Jeff Bailey still has an OPS of 1.006. Doug Deeds has an OPS of .862. Brandon Allen is 5-for-his-last-10, with three doubles, 2 BB's and just 2 K's.
Bad things:
What in the world has happened to Clay Zavada? Something about his recent injury completely torched his control, as he threw 34 pitches tonight and only 16 were strikes. Fewer than half of his pitches were strikes. There's a reason that a 2/3-inning, two-run performance kept his ERA at a steady 27.00. He's just been plain awful this year, both before and since his return. I root for the guy and love him for his energy, but he's really gotta find the strike zone before he can be considered for the big leagues again.
Mark Hallberg is batting .162 in his last 10 games, though a BABIP of .207 isn't helping. He's also playing sterling defense, so there's hope for him to have a good season, but he needs to be getting hits to be anything more than a poor man's Augie Ojeda since he supplies no power and little patience, which limit him to a .532 OPS, third-worst amongst the Aces.
After a promising six-inning, three-run outing in which he only allowed one walk and didn't allow a home run, Bryan Augenstein returned to awfulness last Monday, coughing up six earned runs in five innings, allowing a homer and walking three while striking out five. He now has a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 innings pitched with a 16:9 K:BB ratio and three homers allowed. He really isn't fooling anyone in the PCL, and would probably be well-served with a demotion to Mobile, especially if Kris Benson comes back and Kevin Mulvey returns to the Reno rotation (with there being little chance of Josh Collmenter being sent back to Visalia). UPDATE: Augenstein started in place of Cesar Valdez on Saturday, and coughed up six earned runs in five innings. Augenstein needs to return to AA to find himself (and it's not like Wes Roemer needs more time wallowing at Mobile).
Zach Kroenke still is awful, with a 9.53 ERA in 11.1 innings. Even his only seemingly-decent outing, his only start of the season, saw him give up two unearned runs on top of one earned run in three innings. In fact, Kroenke's only had one clean outing so far this season, back on April 9, and has since largely been relegated to mop-up long relief work. Just how bad are his numbers? His K:BB ratio in those 11.1 innings is 4:5. No, that's not backwards. He's also served up a homer to give him an FIP of 5.00. Not nearly as bad as his ERA, of course, but when you walk guys as often as Kroenke has and refuse to strike guys out as Kroenke has, you pretty much are going to get what you deserve.
It looks like Jordan Norberto may not be ready for AAA either. He's walked two in 1.2 innings (spanning three appearances), giving up two earned runs, albeit with three strikeouts. It also looks like he's basically their designated LOOGY, which seems rather odd considering that he wasn't relegated to that role in the big leagues.
AA Mobile:
Good things:
After a mediocre six-inning, four-run start last Saturday in which he served up three homers, Wes Roemer threw himself an absolute gem on Thursday, with a complete game, nine-strikeout, five-hit, no-walk shutout of Carolina. Yes, Carolina sucks and was in the middle of an 11-game losing streak, but it's impressive nonetheless. Roemer has a shiny 2.00 ERA in 36.00 innings with a 25:3 K:BB ratio (and you thought Cesar Valdez's was good - hah!), and were Collmenter not needed to start last night, Roemer would have been the guy promoted to Reno. Unfortunately for Roemer, it seems that Collmenter could actually stick in AAA, though Roemer could still be moved up if Bryan Augenstein continues failing.
Bryan Henry (13.0 IP, 13:4 K:BB, 0 HR, 1.38 ERA) and Roque Mercedes (10.1 IP, 12:6 K:BB, 1 HR, 2.61 ERA) have both been really effective out of Mobile's 'pen. Though Henry has been slightly better and less walk-prone than Mercedes, expect to see Mercedes possibly called up to the majors first if we are in dire need of an arm, as he's already on the 40-Man Roster.
Bad things:
Pat McAnaney actually improved upon his metrics from his five-inning, two-run start on April 21 (3:5 K:BB ratio, 0 HR) with a 5:2 K:BB ratio through just 3.1 innings, but yet mysteriously gave up ten hits and four earned runs to earn the loss on April 26. This appears to be remarkably flukey, but at two stops his ERA now stands at a rather gloomy 6.43, with way too many walks allowed (10 in 19 innings).
Walks finally caught up to Leyson Septimo again, as he gave out three free passes and two hits in a five-run, four-out relief appearance yesterday, and spiking his ERA to 5.40. Good news is that his GO/AO ratio is still 3.0 and he still hasn't given up a home run. In other words, I'm still more confident in Septimo being useful this season than Zach Kroenke or Jordan Norberto.
Collin Cowgill has a .529 OPS in his last ten games, though it has come with a .172 BABIP over that span. Also, Konrad Schmidt has a .628 OPS in his last ten games, and without a crappy BABIP (.314).
Hi-A Visalia:
Good things:
Bryan Woodall continues to be untouchable at Visalia, having now thrown 11 shutout innings in eight appearances, striking out 14, allowing just two walks and three hits, and boasting a ridiculous 5.00 GO/AO ratio. Expect to see him in Mobile very quickly, especially if relief arms start flying around different levels in the midst of a nuclear bullpen explosion.
But Woodall's success is also aided by the fact that he doesn't have to face Marc Krauss, who is thankfully on his team. Krauss has been ludicrous this year, now boasting a 1.059 OPS in 20 games. He has a decent 18:11 K:BB ratio, and three doubles, two triples, and four homers amongst 25 hits in 71 at-bats. In other words, absurdity.
Prior to an 0-4 night last night, Ryan Wheeler had been on a slight tear himself, going 12-for-36 in his previous nine games with three doubles, a homer, and a 6:2 K:BB ratio (.368/.500/.868 OBP/SLG/OPS). He's not been as remarkable as Krauss, but he's definitely held his own after what basically amounted to a two-level jump, having played in only 8 regular-season games for South Bend last year.
Bad things:
Wade Miley only technically gave up one earned run in his 5.2-inning start last night, but nonetheless has a fairly poor outing. He gave up three more unearned runs, and had a 2:4 K:BB ratio, continuing on a pair of disturbing trends of unearned runs and his walks exceeding his strikeouts thus far at Visalia. He has now allowed seven unearned runs to go with eight earned runs, and his overall K:BB ratio stands at 10:14. In fact, he's only had one outing where he didn't give up any unearned runs, which also was his worst outing of the season, a five-inning, six-run suck-fest on April 13, AND just one outing where he had more strikeouts than walks, a 2:1 ratio in a five-inning start April 25. If you're looking for a piece of good news with Miley, he does have a 2.53 GO/AO ratio.
Paul Goldschmidt's sizzling start has come to a screeching halt in his last ten games, in which he has put up a miserable OPS of .293, with four hits (including two doubles) in 40 at-bats, including 14 strikeouts with just two walks. Now, 4 hits in 26 balls put in play is not going to keep happening, but the K:BB rate over this stretch would still naturally lead to some lesser degree of terribleness.
Mid-A South Bend:
Good things:
The rotation: It's really really late at night and I want to be efficient, plus lumping their stats together looks awesome and intimidating. In 113.2 innings, they have a 100:28 K:BB ratio, have allowed 101 hits, 6 home runs, and just 35 earned runs (and 11 unearned runs) for an ERA of 2.77. Yes, 2.77. The '09 draft is looking really good.
And it's not just the arms, either. Keon Broxton has been red-hot lately, with a .951 OPS in his last ten games after a slow start, including two doubles, three triples, a homer, and, perhaps most encouraging, five walks. Bobby Borchering has joined Broxton in the slug-fest, with a .934 OPS in his last ten.
Bad things:
Matt Davidson has been red-hot lately, with a 1.139 OPS in his last ten games. So why on earth is he amongst the bad things? Well, it's because it's largely BABIP-driven (.467), as he has a pathetic 21:1 K:BB ratio so far.
Bobby Stone still sucks. .524 OPS overall, .576 OPS in his last ten. The kid needs to figure some stuff out.
Sorry if this tailed off near the end, it's super late (keep in mind the time zone changes...). I hear birds outside. Not going to bother with a legitimate conclusion. 'Night everyone.
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AAA Reno:
Good things:
First, with the recent call-ups of Dan Stange and Kevin Mulvey, what has been largely ignored and uncovered by the news is the promotion of Josh Collmenter from Hi-A to AAA and assignment of Brad Gemberling to Hi-A from Extended Spring Training (Gemberling threw four innings and allowed two earned runs in his start for Visalia on Thursday). Collmenter made his first start for Reno tonight, and after posting a 2.40 ERA with a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 15 innings for Visalia (wonder why he jumped an extra level now?) in three starts, decided that that simply wasn't good enough. So he struck out 8 PCL hitters while walking nobody in seven shutout PCL innings in his first PCL start and throwing a measly 89 PCL pitches. Should I emphasize the fact that he did this in the PCL any more? This guy is for real. Great change-up (i.e. he's got secondary stuff that will actually allow him to be successful in upper level/the majors) and he's got the K-rates throughout the minors to show that he can definitely be a back-of-the-rotation guy for us within the next year or so, or as a September call-up guy in the 'pen. There were age concerns at Hi-A for him, but now that he's up at Reno, he's on track to possibly reach the majors in 2011.
Cesar Valdez continues to be awesome, and now has a 25:5 K:BB ratio through 23.2 innings pitched. I expect to see Valdez starting Monday in the big leagues, especially after Kevin Mulvey's suck-filled relief effort yesterday.
Jason Urquidez has a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings pitched with a 17:3 K:BB ratio and no homers allowed. If Kroenke continues sucking, expect Urquidez to take his spot on the 40-man Roster and find himself in the porous D'backs' bullpen at some point this year, perhaps very quickly.
Despite not being mentioned as a rotation possibility in the majors, likely because he started at Mobile, Matt Torra currently leads the Reno rotation with his ERA of 3.32 through three starts, and his FIP is even lower, at 2.99, though a really low HR/FB rate is certainly helping him.
Pedro Ciriaco has been pretty bad since his return to Reno. At least that's the original prognosis upon observing his miserable .184 batting average. However, he has just 6 K's in 38 ABs to go with a walk (a solid ratio considering we're talking about Pedro Ciriaco here...), to go with two homers, a triple, a double, and two stolen bases (0 CS) in nine games. That means a BABIP of .167. If his BABIP were, say, .300, he'd be batting .289 with a .308 OBP and .526 SLG (.834 OPS). From a guy I've heard described as a "defensive wizard" at shortstop, that's pretty nice. Are the power numbers sustainable? Probably not. But the same can be said about that awful BABIP, so you have to take the inevitability of regression as good news for the kid.
Jeff Bailey still has an OPS of 1.006. Doug Deeds has an OPS of .862. Brandon Allen is 5-for-his-last-10, with three doubles, 2 BB's and just 2 K's.
Bad things:
What in the world has happened to Clay Zavada? Something about his recent injury completely torched his control, as he threw 34 pitches tonight and only 16 were strikes. Fewer than half of his pitches were strikes. There's a reason that a 2/3-inning, two-run performance kept his ERA at a steady 27.00. He's just been plain awful this year, both before and since his return. I root for the guy and love him for his energy, but he's really gotta find the strike zone before he can be considered for the big leagues again.
Mark Hallberg is batting .162 in his last 10 games, though a BABIP of .207 isn't helping. He's also playing sterling defense, so there's hope for him to have a good season, but he needs to be getting hits to be anything more than a poor man's Augie Ojeda since he supplies no power and little patience, which limit him to a .532 OPS, third-worst amongst the Aces.
After a promising six-inning, three-run outing in which he only allowed one walk and didn't allow a home run, Bryan Augenstein returned to awfulness last Monday, coughing up six earned runs in five innings, allowing a homer and walking three while striking out five. He now has a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 innings pitched with a 16:9 K:BB ratio and three homers allowed. He really isn't fooling anyone in the PCL, and would probably be well-served with a demotion to Mobile, especially if Kris Benson comes back and Kevin Mulvey returns to the Reno rotation (with there being little chance of Josh Collmenter being sent back to Visalia). UPDATE: Augenstein started in place of Cesar Valdez on Saturday, and coughed up six earned runs in five innings. Augenstein needs to return to AA to find himself (and it's not like Wes Roemer needs more time wallowing at Mobile).
Zach Kroenke still is awful, with a 9.53 ERA in 11.1 innings. Even his only seemingly-decent outing, his only start of the season, saw him give up two unearned runs on top of one earned run in three innings. In fact, Kroenke's only had one clean outing so far this season, back on April 9, and has since largely been relegated to mop-up long relief work. Just how bad are his numbers? His K:BB ratio in those 11.1 innings is 4:5. No, that's not backwards. He's also served up a homer to give him an FIP of 5.00. Not nearly as bad as his ERA, of course, but when you walk guys as often as Kroenke has and refuse to strike guys out as Kroenke has, you pretty much are going to get what you deserve.
It looks like Jordan Norberto may not be ready for AAA either. He's walked two in 1.2 innings (spanning three appearances), giving up two earned runs, albeit with three strikeouts. It also looks like he's basically their designated LOOGY, which seems rather odd considering that he wasn't relegated to that role in the big leagues.
AA Mobile:
Good things:
After a mediocre six-inning, four-run start last Saturday in which he served up three homers, Wes Roemer threw himself an absolute gem on Thursday, with a complete game, nine-strikeout, five-hit, no-walk shutout of Carolina. Yes, Carolina sucks and was in the middle of an 11-game losing streak, but it's impressive nonetheless. Roemer has a shiny 2.00 ERA in 36.00 innings with a 25:3 K:BB ratio (and you thought Cesar Valdez's was good - hah!), and were Collmenter not needed to start last night, Roemer would have been the guy promoted to Reno. Unfortunately for Roemer, it seems that Collmenter could actually stick in AAA, though Roemer could still be moved up if Bryan Augenstein continues failing.
Bryan Henry (13.0 IP, 13:4 K:BB, 0 HR, 1.38 ERA) and Roque Mercedes (10.1 IP, 12:6 K:BB, 1 HR, 2.61 ERA) have both been really effective out of Mobile's 'pen. Though Henry has been slightly better and less walk-prone than Mercedes, expect to see Mercedes possibly called up to the majors first if we are in dire need of an arm, as he's already on the 40-Man Roster.
Bad things:
Pat McAnaney actually improved upon his metrics from his five-inning, two-run start on April 21 (3:5 K:BB ratio, 0 HR) with a 5:2 K:BB ratio through just 3.1 innings, but yet mysteriously gave up ten hits and four earned runs to earn the loss on April 26. This appears to be remarkably flukey, but at two stops his ERA now stands at a rather gloomy 6.43, with way too many walks allowed (10 in 19 innings).
Walks finally caught up to Leyson Septimo again, as he gave out three free passes and two hits in a five-run, four-out relief appearance yesterday, and spiking his ERA to 5.40. Good news is that his GO/AO ratio is still 3.0 and he still hasn't given up a home run. In other words, I'm still more confident in Septimo being useful this season than Zach Kroenke or Jordan Norberto.
Collin Cowgill has a .529 OPS in his last ten games, though it has come with a .172 BABIP over that span. Also, Konrad Schmidt has a .628 OPS in his last ten games, and without a crappy BABIP (.314).
Hi-A Visalia:
Good things:
Bryan Woodall continues to be untouchable at Visalia, having now thrown 11 shutout innings in eight appearances, striking out 14, allowing just two walks and three hits, and boasting a ridiculous 5.00 GO/AO ratio. Expect to see him in Mobile very quickly, especially if relief arms start flying around different levels in the midst of a nuclear bullpen explosion.
But Woodall's success is also aided by the fact that he doesn't have to face Marc Krauss, who is thankfully on his team. Krauss has been ludicrous this year, now boasting a 1.059 OPS in 20 games. He has a decent 18:11 K:BB ratio, and three doubles, two triples, and four homers amongst 25 hits in 71 at-bats. In other words, absurdity.
Prior to an 0-4 night last night, Ryan Wheeler had been on a slight tear himself, going 12-for-36 in his previous nine games with three doubles, a homer, and a 6:2 K:BB ratio (.368/.500/.868 OBP/SLG/OPS). He's not been as remarkable as Krauss, but he's definitely held his own after what basically amounted to a two-level jump, having played in only 8 regular-season games for South Bend last year.
Bad things:
Wade Miley only technically gave up one earned run in his 5.2-inning start last night, but nonetheless has a fairly poor outing. He gave up three more unearned runs, and had a 2:4 K:BB ratio, continuing on a pair of disturbing trends of unearned runs and his walks exceeding his strikeouts thus far at Visalia. He has now allowed seven unearned runs to go with eight earned runs, and his overall K:BB ratio stands at 10:14. In fact, he's only had one outing where he didn't give up any unearned runs, which also was his worst outing of the season, a five-inning, six-run suck-fest on April 13, AND just one outing where he had more strikeouts than walks, a 2:1 ratio in a five-inning start April 25. If you're looking for a piece of good news with Miley, he does have a 2.53 GO/AO ratio.
Paul Goldschmidt's sizzling start has come to a screeching halt in his last ten games, in which he has put up a miserable OPS of .293, with four hits (including two doubles) in 40 at-bats, including 14 strikeouts with just two walks. Now, 4 hits in 26 balls put in play is not going to keep happening, but the K:BB rate over this stretch would still naturally lead to some lesser degree of terribleness.
Mid-A South Bend:
Good things:
The rotation: It's really really late at night and I want to be efficient, plus lumping their stats together looks awesome and intimidating. In 113.2 innings, they have a 100:28 K:BB ratio, have allowed 101 hits, 6 home runs, and just 35 earned runs (and 11 unearned runs) for an ERA of 2.77. Yes, 2.77. The '09 draft is looking really good.
And it's not just the arms, either. Keon Broxton has been red-hot lately, with a .951 OPS in his last ten games after a slow start, including two doubles, three triples, a homer, and, perhaps most encouraging, five walks. Bobby Borchering has joined Broxton in the slug-fest, with a .934 OPS in his last ten.
Bad things:
Matt Davidson has been red-hot lately, with a 1.139 OPS in his last ten games. So why on earth is he amongst the bad things? Well, it's because it's largely BABIP-driven (.467), as he has a pathetic 21:1 K:BB ratio so far.
Bobby Stone still sucks. .524 OPS overall, .576 OPS in his last ten. The kid needs to figure some stuff out.
Sorry if this tailed off near the end, it's super late (keep in mind the time zone changes...). I hear birds outside. Not going to bother with a legitimate conclusion. 'Night everyone.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Hatchlings Report - 4/20/10
Now that we're a few weeks into the season I felt it's time to start keeping track of some of the prospects in the minor-league system that have performed well in the early-going, who to keep an eye on to move up levels in the early stages of the season, and who needs to pick up their game quickly. After the break, a look at a bunch prospects whose names could be in the news soon.
On Josh Byrnes' Speed-Dial (possible major-league call-ups):
RHP Daniel Stange / RHP Jason Urquidez / RHP T.J. Beam - AAA Reno - For all of the commotion about what starters we're going to tab from the Reno rotation throughout the season to fill the back end of the major-league rotation, Reno's got a pretty solid bullpen that we could tap into as well. Leading the group at the moment is Stange due to his 7:0 K:BB rate and god-like 0.30 WHIP in 6.2 innings of work, having allowed just two hits and one base-runner all season, with a solo home run accounting for his 1.35 ERA. Also working to Stange's advantage is the fact that he's already on the 40-man Roster. Next is Urquidez, who has struck out an alarming 12 batters in 9.1 innings, but has walked two and been surprisingly hittable, scattering 10 hits across those innings. He has kept the ball in the park though, and only given up two runs for a 1.93 ERA. Finally, Beam has allowed no runs in his 6.1 innings, but has seen his fair share of fortune, having only struck out three batters to go with one walk and five hits. If the problems in the bullpen aren't simply a matter of fatigue from the recent extra-innings workloads, expect to see at least one of these names in the big leagues this season.
RHP Cesar Valdez / RHP Kevin Mulvey - AAA Reno - Even after Kris Benson's promotion to the majors, Reno's rotation is still throwing well with the exception of Bryan Augenstein, who has struggled to a 7.59 ERA in two starts (Billy Buckner is listed later on). The current best of the bunch is probably Valdez, who, despite allowing two home runs, has struck out a ridiculous 21 batters in just 16.2 innings (11.34 K/9, 28% K-Rate)(!) and has a 1.78 GO/AO ratio, suggesting that he is keeping the ball on the ground, and that his HR/FB ratio is probably a little out of wack. Mulvey has thus far been the next best in the group, though walks bit him in the rear in his most recent start, in which he went just 4.2 innings and gave up 4 earned runs after having pitched just 3 innings in the start prior. I have no clue as to why Mulvey's getting such a short leash, but it's something to pay attention to. Also, while not really a candidate to reach the majors in '10, recent call-up Matt Torra threw 6 innings in his first AAA start since '08, giving up 2 earned runs despite some rates that leave something to be desired.
OF/1B Jeff Bailey / OF Cole Gillespie - AAA Reno - 1.019 OPS. That's about all you need to know about Bailey. He's hitting for power, drawing walks, limiting his strikeouts, and even freaking stole a base on his only attempt. When the bullpen finally gets settled down and rested, and Esmerling Vasquez returns to Reno, Jeff Bailey is the guy who should be promoted purely in terms of production, although a lack of 40-man Roster spots may keep him banished in Reno in favor of Gillespie, who is certainly playing well (.867 OPS) and is more versatile than Bailey defensively, but Chris Young is planted in CF and Gillespie is not hitting at nearly the level of Bailey. Good news for Bailey is that Zach Kroenke is currently throwing suck in Reno, so if Clay Zavada comes back from his injury in better form than he entered it in, if Jordan Norberto manages to at least stick in the high minors, and if Leyson Septimo's control and luck don't desert him again, then Kroenke could become very expendable.
IF Ryan Roberts - AAA Reno - We all know Roberts, and it appears as if he's digging himself out of the slide he was in both during Spring Training and the first few games of the minor-league season, now possessing an OPS of .838, with 7 of his 14 hits going for extra-bases. If an Augie Ojeda trade ever happens, it'll probably be Roberts who comes back up.
SS Pedro Ciriaco - AAA Reno - It's odd to list a guy who hasn't played a game yet this year, as Ciriaco has been on the DL to start the season. So although the phrase "On Speed Dial" is probably inappropriate, Ciriaco is almost guaranteed to be a September call-up as a pinch-runner and defensive substitute. Further, if he comes back from his injury strong at the plate and a SS is needed due to injury, we could see him sooner, as he's already on the 40-man Roster.
Nostradamus Says... (guys we could see as early as 2011):
C/1B Sean Coughlin - AAA Reno - A guy who left a mighty good impression in Spring Training by smacking the ball all over the place, Coughlin quickly replaced the 1.232 OPS that John Hester left in Reno with a 1.011 OPS of his own. Not too bad from the catcher position, eh? A big time bat at a highly-valued position if he can stick defensively at catcher, a position that the Diamondbacks suddenly seem to be loaded at from the majors to Hi-A (see Snyder, Chris; Montero, Miguel; Hester, John; below; and way below). While the idea of a catcher trade seems nauseating now that Montero is out for a while, I'd bet that we'll find ourselves dangling Snyder around in front of any team in need of catching help once again at the trade deadline.
C Konrad Schmidt - AA Mobile - Another guy who was in big-league camp for part of Spring Training, Schmidt took complete control of the starting catcher's job in Mobile when Coughlin was promoted to Reno with current backup and former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley continuing to be awful (one hit in 14 ABs). Thankfully, Schmidt has been great, playing sterling defense and having already whacked three homers and posting a 1.109 OPS to continue the theme of above-1.000 OPS's from our catchers in the minors. It's a slight long-shot that we see Schmidt in the bigs in 2011, but trades and injuries do happen. And with it still looking as if Chris Snyder will eventually be dealt, and Schmidt appearing capable, September 2011 seems reasonable as a cameo date for Schmidt.
IF Mark Hallberg - AAA Reno - If the aforementioned Augie trade happens and RyRo returns to the major league squad, it'll be Hallberg who reaps the benefits of a consistent position in Reno. He has played well to start the season, with a 4:4 K:BB ratio to go with a solid OPS and great defense. He has little to no power, though, and is probably a utility defensive sub type, like, well, Augie Ojeda.
CF Evan Frey - AA Mobile - I just can't figure this guy out. He raked in '08 at Visalia, raked the following ST, sucked in '09 at Mobile, sucked at ST this year, and now is on fire at Mobile. Alrighty, then. He's put up an .894 OPS so far, getting on-base at over a .400 clip due largely to his 3:4 K:BB ratio while playing his trademark good defense. Frey needed a rebound year to re-establish his prospect status, and after a discouraging Spring Training it looks like he's finally on-pace to do just that. 2011 is probably optimistic for Frey, but he should at least function as a September call-up next year to run and play defense.
Starters #1-4 - AA Mobile - Wow, Mobile's rotation is off to a fantastic start. Suffice it to say that if we're in need of back-end starters at this time next year like we were this year, we'll have plenty of candidates. Wes Roemer has struck out 14 in 21 innings while walking just two batters, and carries a phenomenal 1.71 ERA. He has been a little fly-ball happy this season, with a 0.84 GO/AO ratio, and two homers allowed in three starts. However, he had a 1.91 GO/AO ratio at Visalia and 1.03 GO/AO ratio at Mobile last year, so if his current number improves, we can expect that home run rate to decrease. Tom Layne is building off a breakout year last year at Visalia in Mobile's rotation, having allowed just one earned run (though two additional unearned runs) in 12.1 innings over two starts. He has a decent 7:3 K:BB ratio aiding his cause, but the biggest factor of his success is that he's keeping the ball firmly planted on the ground with an astounding 3.17 GO/AO ratio. He had similar rates around 3 at both Visalia and Mobile last year as well, so it's not unprecedented or due to regress. I'm a big fan of Layne, and think he's a guy who could get promoted to Reno at some point this year, especially if that GO/AO ratio continues to be stable, and the type of pitcher who could eventually be perfectly suited for pitching at Chase Field. Barry Enright has been his usual self, keeping the ball in the park (despite being a fly ball pitcher) and refusing to give free passes with an 8:1 K:BB ratio in 12 innings pitched. His fly ball tendencies can land him in some trouble, but he is a quality start machine. Some believe he may end up being a reliever in the majors, and he does carry a significant RHB/LHB split. Bryan Shaw is a reliever-turned-starter who currently boasts an 11:1 K:BB ratio in 11 innings, and a 1.50 GO/AO ratio, with a 1.64 ERA as evidence of his dominance. Shaw will probably get a full season in Mobile in '10, and probably isn't someone to expect in 2011, but was lumped in here as a Mobile starter and has a lot of promise as a second-round pick from 2008.
RHP Kyler Newby - AA Mobile - It's not a secret that Newby's goal going into 2010 was regaining his amazing K-Rate from 2008 at Visalia, which was nearly cut in half last year at Mobile. So far? 7 K's in 6.1 innings. The result? A 1.42 ERA. He's a guy who could be called up very quickly to replace one of the many lagging relief arms at Reno (Jose Marte and Billy Spottiswood come to mind). If he then can perform throughout the rest of the season at Reno behind a plethora of relief arms, he could be in the mix for a big-league roster spot next year, especially if the team ships off Chad Qualls as his arbitration costs rise and Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry depart in free agency.
Elevator, Going Up (lower-level/raw prospects on the rise):
OF Collin Cowgill - AA Mobile - It's true that he may be a bit of a 'tweener, but he's off to a hot start with a line of .326/.383/.465. He'll probably always be more of a doubles hitter than anything else, especially given that his size likely means that filling out and adding extra strength probably isn't in his future, but he could have value at the major-league level. Our outfield logjam does appear to be a problem for him though, and Cowgill could become trade bait, especially as one of the organization's top-10 prospects. He could be seen as a 2011 September call-up bat, but doesn't have the type of speed or defensive ability that would guarantee this on a down year offensively.
LHP Leyson Septimo / RHP Roque Mercedes - AA Mobile - I continue to lump these two guys together since they continue to be on similar tracks towards the majors. Both are strikeout pitchers with occasional control problems who are old for their level and new to relief pitching, and both are off to solid starts. Septimo has allowed just one hit and no runs in 4.2 innings with eight strikeouts and three walks. If he can keep this up, it may help ease the tensions within the organization about the left-handed relief situation, and allow us to jettison Zach Kroenke from the 40-man Roster in favor of Jeff Bailey, who is tearing through the PCL. Mercedes has been more hittable than Septimo, giving up seven hits and two earned runs in six innings, including a home run, but sports a slightly better 8:2 K:BB ratio. I personally expect both guys, particularly Septimo, to take a couple seasons to get to the majors, though Mercedes has demonstrated last year that he could pitch at AA and could be moved up to AAA at some point this season, where success could put him on a faster track to the majors.
1B Paul Goldschmidt - Hi-A Visalia - Rest assured, if Paul Goldschmidt keeps this up, he will make the highest jump on my 2011 top prospects list. Holy crap, Paul, give pitchers a chance, eh? He's already clubbed three homers after skipping both short-season Yakima and Mid-A South Bend, where guys like Bobby Borchering, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Stone are currently left struggling, and has jumped out to a 1.010 OPS. Goldschmidt's accomplishments have been even more impressive than teammate Marc Krauss' 1.056 OPS because Goldschmidt is working against a .110 BABIP gap between him and Krauss. And with Mobile trotting Bryan Byrne out at 1B every day, count on Goldschmidt to be promoted like, yesterday.
LF/1B Marc Krauss / 3B Kyle Greene - Hi-A Visalia - I lump Krauss and Greene together because they're carrying respective OPS's of 1.056 and .970, but both are doing it with the help of some massively inflated BABIP numbers. Krauss' BABIP is .452 and Greene's BABIP is .471. Neither of those numbers are sustainable, and as they regress, both of those OPS numbers will take huge hits downward. Both players are having good seasons, but their accomplishments need to be taken with the necessary piles of salt.
1B/3B Ryan Wheeler - Hi-A Visalia - I kept Wheeler separate because his overall OPS isn't as high as Goldschmidt, Krauss, or Greene, at .795, and even though Wheeler's BABIP is still clearly inflated, though to a lesser extent, at .390. Why Wheeler is here is because, according to reports I've read, his defense at third base has been far better than expected. This is huge news, as it could help to free up the mess of first-basemen within the D'backs' system. Further, as Wheeler becomes more acclimated to his new position, I expect that his offensive rates will begin to rebound as he can re-adjust his focus back to his plate approach. Mainly, Wheeler needs to rediscover his plate patience, as his golden 32:42 K:BB rate from across two levels a year ago has stumbled to 10:4 thus far. Granted, with just eight regular-season games in South Bend, this isn't exactly unexpected or unprecedented. After all, what Paul Goldschmidt shouldn't be our standard for level-jumps.
C Rossmel Perez - Hi-A Visalia - Remember when I said to see "way below" during the Coughlin paragraph? That's here. Perez is also off to a great start, batting .313 with a 3:3 K:BB ratio in 32 ABs. While he has very little power to speak of, he is patient and a tough out, and has a reputation for being great behind the plate. And while this can be evidenced by his throwing out 5 of 12 base-stealers, he also has had his share of struggles defensively with six passed balls in nine games. But for a kid who won't be legally allowed to drink until August and is at Hi-A ball, that's pretty darned good.
RHP Joshua Collmenter - Hi-A Visalia - Collmenter was stuck repeating Hi-A this year due simply to the bevy of depth the D'backs suddenly have in their minor-league rotations after posting the highest strikeout total of the entire system at Visalia in '09. He's done much of the same so far this year, with a 12:2 K:BB rate through 10 innings. Two home runs allowed have been a problem, and he's been far more fly-ball happy than last season, but that's not a significant enough problem that he really belongs in Hi-A. There's simply going to be no spots for him in Mobile until an injury necessitates call-ups.
RHP Bryan Woodall - Hi-A Visalia - Has been nearly un-hittable in his eight innings of relief work so far, striking out eleven, walking just two, allowing three hits and no runs. His WHIP stands at 0.63. Top that off with the fact that three of his outings have been for at least two innings of work, and you've got yourself a guy due for a promotion, pronto.
RHP Charles Brewer / RHP Eric Smith / LHP Mike Belfiore - Mid-A South Bend - It's been a grim season so far in South Bend, but there are a few pitchers from the 2009 draft class throwing particularly well, headlined by Brewer, though you may not think so at first. Of the three pitchers listed here, Brewer actually has the highest ERA, 3.45. However, in 15.2 innings of work, Brewer has struck out 18 batters and walked just two, all while giving up no home runs, for an astounding 1.29 FIP. Regardless of what you think of the stat, that's exceptional. Unfortunately, these numbers were skewed by BABIP, as Brewer has mysteriously allowed 17 hits (.354 BABIP). Smith has struck out six in eleven innings of work, and has a scary-good 0.55 WHIP and 1.64 ERA, but has given up a homer despite his typical ground-ball nature and been exceedingly fortunate on balls in play. Looking at Belfiore's numbers as a whole is confusing, because of how dramatically different each of his starts has gone. He hasn't allowed a run since his first start, in which he served up two home run balls and only struck out one batter in 3.2 innings. He walked five batters (striking out seven) in his following game, which a friend of mine attended, but didn't allow a run. His most recent start was the best of all, as he struck out six batters in five shutout innings, while walking none.
Currently Unhappy With The Concept Of Statistical Variance (guys whose numbers look worse than they are):
1B/OF Brandon Allen - AAA Reno - Allen's power is certainly not out, as three of his eight hits are home runs, and his ISO sits at a pleasant .233. Further, he continues to demonstrate good patience, drawing seven walks in 50 PAs. However, Allen has just five hits in 33 balls put in play, for a .152 BABIP, which has crushed his batting average, which sits at .186. A number that absurdly low demonstrates that sample size has decided to shaft Allen in the early-going, and as his BABIP begins to climb upwards, Allen's mediocre .739 OPS will skyrocket to the levels we're used to seeing.
RHP Billy Buckner - AAA Reno - Despite his horrid first start (5.0 IP, 7 ER), he has a 2.17 GO/AO ratio and a 12:3 K:BB ratio in 10.2 total innings, so luck has not been kind to him, especially his HR/FB ratio with those two home runs he has allowed. He also had a no-hitter in his last start through five innings, but wound up not getting through the sixth inning, being pulled with two outs after giving up a home run to A's stud prospect Chris Carter - not a bad guy to give up a homer to if you're going to give one up. Something tells me that we'll see Billy start to return to his end-of-'09 form as the season progresses, and that we'll see him in the majors at some point.
LHP Patrick McAnaney - AA Mobile - After a mediocre start to begin the season with Visalia, McAnaney was called up to Mobile mostly on the basis of his 2009 season and good raw stuff. His first start in Mobile was deceiving, as McAnaney pitched far better than a glancing-over of the bottom line would suggest. He allowed four earned runs in 5.2 innings, but had 7 K's, just 1 BB, and a 3.0 GO/AO ratio. Yet, he gave up eight hits despite those awesome metrics. If he can keep those numbers up, McAnaney will not sport a 6.35 ERA this season.
RHP Trevor Harden - Hi-A Visalia - Harden has thrown nine innings this season, striking out seven and allowing just one walk. Yet, he has an 8.00 ERA. Why, you ask? He has already coughed up four home runs. Now, even for a guy with a 0.73 GO/AO ratio, that's an absurd HR/FB ratio. If Harden's other metrics can stay the same, his numbers will begin to start reaching normality, and it'll be easier to see that he's a much better pitcher than those home runs have made it seem.
There's AutoZone For Stalled Cars, But What About Stalled Prospects? (guys who are straight-up struggling):
RHP Bryan Augenstein - AAA Reno - As mentioned near the beginning of the article, Augenstein isn't doing well. He has gone away from all of the things that make him successful as a pitcher. His GO/AO ratio through two starts, both of which were equally mediocre, is just 1.08, unacceptable for a ground-ball pitcher. He has served up two home runs already, as many as he'd allowed in eight Reno appearances last year (and even those appearances weren't that great). His K:BB ratio is 7:5, which is too many walks for a control specialist. Pure and simple, Augenstein's metrics have exploded on him, and he needs to put them back together if he thinks he's going to reach his back-end starter ceiling.
LHP Zach Kroenke - AAA Reno - It's been mentioned a couple times that Kroenke is "throwing suck" and may be jettisoned if he can't change this. To explain, he's struck out two batters in 6.1 innings while walking four, and coughing up eleven hits and a home run. The end results are an unsightly 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP. After losing a major-league job to a guy who hadn't had success above Hi-A with a poor Spring Training, Kroenke's time with the Diamondbacks may be coming to a very early close.
SS Taylor Harbin - AA Mobile - He's hitting .313, I know, but the offensive metrics combined with three errors defensively (errors suck in measuring defensive ability, but I don't have UZR for minor league guys and defense has never been his specialty) drastically outweigh that batting average. His BABIP is .375, ISO is .041, and he's drawn two walks in 50 PA's. He really needs to bring the walk and strikeout numbers closer together, as an 8:2 K:BB isn't going to cut it unless you can crush the ball, and Harbin cannot do that. Shortstop is generally a thin position in the system once you get past Ciriaco at AAA until you reach Owings at Mid-A, and many still question whether or not Owings'll stick there.
LHP Wade Miley - Hi-A Visalia - "Stalled" is an unfair distinction for Miley, who was the Opening Day starter for Visalia and currently has a 4.02 ERA, but that number is deceiving, as Miley has walked more batters than he has struck out. For a guy who had a 102:33 K:BB ratio last season, 6:9 isn't going to cut it. He's managed to get through it with a spike in his GO/AO ratio and a .255 BABIP, but those aren't going to be there for him forever. A guy who people thought would be going through the system towards the majors faster than he has so far, he needs to get his control back and start striking guys out again to keep progressing if he wants to make it to the bigs at all.
3B/1B Bobby Borchering / CF Keon Broxton / OF/1B Bobby Stone - Pretty much nobody is doing well for South Bend, but these three are doing the worst when compared with expectations. Borchering, Broxton, and Stone sport respective OPS's of .599, .561, and .438. Ouch. For a team that came into the season with such high expectations, having just one win is a tremendous disappointment. There really isn't much that can be said that's good news for these guys other than that they're all young and have time. Of the group, I'm probably the most optimistic about Borchering, as he was hitless through his first three games, and had just one hit through his first five, before starting an 8-28 stretch, so he appears to simply be getting used to the new environment. Broxton has been just generally awful, though thankfully not to the extent as Stone (we'll get there in a sec). 18 strikeouts in 45 at-bats is terrible, and the 3 walks to go with them is also awful. He has two triples and a double, but no homers, and his .111 ISO is underwhelming. Basically, a .561 OPS is bad. Worse, though, is a .438 OPS. That is what Bobby Stone has. And after two years at Rookie-level Missoula, you'd expect the 20-year-old Stone to be a little more adjusted to professional baseball and off-speed pitching than he has demonstrated. His swing is still incredibly long, and he simply cannot make contact. 15 strikeouts in 36 at-bats, even with four walks, is not going to keep him in the system for long, whatever his raw power potential is.
So there it is, an afternoon I had to waste completely taken up before tonight's game. The depth in the upper part of the system looks surprisingly good this year, especially in terms of pitching, but yet the lower-level bat depth we were supposed to have hasn't left as good of an impression as we'd hoped for. And such is the mysterious world of baseball.
On Josh Byrnes' Speed-Dial (possible major-league call-ups):
RHP Daniel Stange / RHP Jason Urquidez / RHP T.J. Beam - AAA Reno - For all of the commotion about what starters we're going to tab from the Reno rotation throughout the season to fill the back end of the major-league rotation, Reno's got a pretty solid bullpen that we could tap into as well. Leading the group at the moment is Stange due to his 7:0 K:BB rate and god-like 0.30 WHIP in 6.2 innings of work, having allowed just two hits and one base-runner all season, with a solo home run accounting for his 1.35 ERA. Also working to Stange's advantage is the fact that he's already on the 40-man Roster. Next is Urquidez, who has struck out an alarming 12 batters in 9.1 innings, but has walked two and been surprisingly hittable, scattering 10 hits across those innings. He has kept the ball in the park though, and only given up two runs for a 1.93 ERA. Finally, Beam has allowed no runs in his 6.1 innings, but has seen his fair share of fortune, having only struck out three batters to go with one walk and five hits. If the problems in the bullpen aren't simply a matter of fatigue from the recent extra-innings workloads, expect to see at least one of these names in the big leagues this season.
RHP Cesar Valdez / RHP Kevin Mulvey - AAA Reno - Even after Kris Benson's promotion to the majors, Reno's rotation is still throwing well with the exception of Bryan Augenstein, who has struggled to a 7.59 ERA in two starts (Billy Buckner is listed later on). The current best of the bunch is probably Valdez, who, despite allowing two home runs, has struck out a ridiculous 21 batters in just 16.2 innings (11.34 K/9, 28% K-Rate)(!) and has a 1.78 GO/AO ratio, suggesting that he is keeping the ball on the ground, and that his HR/FB ratio is probably a little out of wack. Mulvey has thus far been the next best in the group, though walks bit him in the rear in his most recent start, in which he went just 4.2 innings and gave up 4 earned runs after having pitched just 3 innings in the start prior. I have no clue as to why Mulvey's getting such a short leash, but it's something to pay attention to. Also, while not really a candidate to reach the majors in '10, recent call-up Matt Torra threw 6 innings in his first AAA start since '08, giving up 2 earned runs despite some rates that leave something to be desired.
OF/1B Jeff Bailey / OF Cole Gillespie - AAA Reno - 1.019 OPS. That's about all you need to know about Bailey. He's hitting for power, drawing walks, limiting his strikeouts, and even freaking stole a base on his only attempt. When the bullpen finally gets settled down and rested, and Esmerling Vasquez returns to Reno, Jeff Bailey is the guy who should be promoted purely in terms of production, although a lack of 40-man Roster spots may keep him banished in Reno in favor of Gillespie, who is certainly playing well (.867 OPS) and is more versatile than Bailey defensively, but Chris Young is planted in CF and Gillespie is not hitting at nearly the level of Bailey. Good news for Bailey is that Zach Kroenke is currently throwing suck in Reno, so if Clay Zavada comes back from his injury in better form than he entered it in, if Jordan Norberto manages to at least stick in the high minors, and if Leyson Septimo's control and luck don't desert him again, then Kroenke could become very expendable.
IF Ryan Roberts - AAA Reno - We all know Roberts, and it appears as if he's digging himself out of the slide he was in both during Spring Training and the first few games of the minor-league season, now possessing an OPS of .838, with 7 of his 14 hits going for extra-bases. If an Augie Ojeda trade ever happens, it'll probably be Roberts who comes back up.
SS Pedro Ciriaco - AAA Reno - It's odd to list a guy who hasn't played a game yet this year, as Ciriaco has been on the DL to start the season. So although the phrase "On Speed Dial" is probably inappropriate, Ciriaco is almost guaranteed to be a September call-up as a pinch-runner and defensive substitute. Further, if he comes back from his injury strong at the plate and a SS is needed due to injury, we could see him sooner, as he's already on the 40-man Roster.
Nostradamus Says... (guys we could see as early as 2011):
C/1B Sean Coughlin - AAA Reno - A guy who left a mighty good impression in Spring Training by smacking the ball all over the place, Coughlin quickly replaced the 1.232 OPS that John Hester left in Reno with a 1.011 OPS of his own. Not too bad from the catcher position, eh? A big time bat at a highly-valued position if he can stick defensively at catcher, a position that the Diamondbacks suddenly seem to be loaded at from the majors to Hi-A (see Snyder, Chris; Montero, Miguel; Hester, John; below; and way below). While the idea of a catcher trade seems nauseating now that Montero is out for a while, I'd bet that we'll find ourselves dangling Snyder around in front of any team in need of catching help once again at the trade deadline.
C Konrad Schmidt - AA Mobile - Another guy who was in big-league camp for part of Spring Training, Schmidt took complete control of the starting catcher's job in Mobile when Coughlin was promoted to Reno with current backup and former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley continuing to be awful (one hit in 14 ABs). Thankfully, Schmidt has been great, playing sterling defense and having already whacked three homers and posting a 1.109 OPS to continue the theme of above-1.000 OPS's from our catchers in the minors. It's a slight long-shot that we see Schmidt in the bigs in 2011, but trades and injuries do happen. And with it still looking as if Chris Snyder will eventually be dealt, and Schmidt appearing capable, September 2011 seems reasonable as a cameo date for Schmidt.
IF Mark Hallberg - AAA Reno - If the aforementioned Augie trade happens and RyRo returns to the major league squad, it'll be Hallberg who reaps the benefits of a consistent position in Reno. He has played well to start the season, with a 4:4 K:BB ratio to go with a solid OPS and great defense. He has little to no power, though, and is probably a utility defensive sub type, like, well, Augie Ojeda.
CF Evan Frey - AA Mobile - I just can't figure this guy out. He raked in '08 at Visalia, raked the following ST, sucked in '09 at Mobile, sucked at ST this year, and now is on fire at Mobile. Alrighty, then. He's put up an .894 OPS so far, getting on-base at over a .400 clip due largely to his 3:4 K:BB ratio while playing his trademark good defense. Frey needed a rebound year to re-establish his prospect status, and after a discouraging Spring Training it looks like he's finally on-pace to do just that. 2011 is probably optimistic for Frey, but he should at least function as a September call-up next year to run and play defense.
Starters #1-4 - AA Mobile - Wow, Mobile's rotation is off to a fantastic start. Suffice it to say that if we're in need of back-end starters at this time next year like we were this year, we'll have plenty of candidates. Wes Roemer has struck out 14 in 21 innings while walking just two batters, and carries a phenomenal 1.71 ERA. He has been a little fly-ball happy this season, with a 0.84 GO/AO ratio, and two homers allowed in three starts. However, he had a 1.91 GO/AO ratio at Visalia and 1.03 GO/AO ratio at Mobile last year, so if his current number improves, we can expect that home run rate to decrease. Tom Layne is building off a breakout year last year at Visalia in Mobile's rotation, having allowed just one earned run (though two additional unearned runs) in 12.1 innings over two starts. He has a decent 7:3 K:BB ratio aiding his cause, but the biggest factor of his success is that he's keeping the ball firmly planted on the ground with an astounding 3.17 GO/AO ratio. He had similar rates around 3 at both Visalia and Mobile last year as well, so it's not unprecedented or due to regress. I'm a big fan of Layne, and think he's a guy who could get promoted to Reno at some point this year, especially if that GO/AO ratio continues to be stable, and the type of pitcher who could eventually be perfectly suited for pitching at Chase Field. Barry Enright has been his usual self, keeping the ball in the park (despite being a fly ball pitcher) and refusing to give free passes with an 8:1 K:BB ratio in 12 innings pitched. His fly ball tendencies can land him in some trouble, but he is a quality start machine. Some believe he may end up being a reliever in the majors, and he does carry a significant RHB/LHB split. Bryan Shaw is a reliever-turned-starter who currently boasts an 11:1 K:BB ratio in 11 innings, and a 1.50 GO/AO ratio, with a 1.64 ERA as evidence of his dominance. Shaw will probably get a full season in Mobile in '10, and probably isn't someone to expect in 2011, but was lumped in here as a Mobile starter and has a lot of promise as a second-round pick from 2008.
RHP Kyler Newby - AA Mobile - It's not a secret that Newby's goal going into 2010 was regaining his amazing K-Rate from 2008 at Visalia, which was nearly cut in half last year at Mobile. So far? 7 K's in 6.1 innings. The result? A 1.42 ERA. He's a guy who could be called up very quickly to replace one of the many lagging relief arms at Reno (Jose Marte and Billy Spottiswood come to mind). If he then can perform throughout the rest of the season at Reno behind a plethora of relief arms, he could be in the mix for a big-league roster spot next year, especially if the team ships off Chad Qualls as his arbitration costs rise and Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry depart in free agency.
Elevator, Going Up (lower-level/raw prospects on the rise):
OF Collin Cowgill - AA Mobile - It's true that he may be a bit of a 'tweener, but he's off to a hot start with a line of .326/.383/.465. He'll probably always be more of a doubles hitter than anything else, especially given that his size likely means that filling out and adding extra strength probably isn't in his future, but he could have value at the major-league level. Our outfield logjam does appear to be a problem for him though, and Cowgill could become trade bait, especially as one of the organization's top-10 prospects. He could be seen as a 2011 September call-up bat, but doesn't have the type of speed or defensive ability that would guarantee this on a down year offensively.
LHP Leyson Septimo / RHP Roque Mercedes - AA Mobile - I continue to lump these two guys together since they continue to be on similar tracks towards the majors. Both are strikeout pitchers with occasional control problems who are old for their level and new to relief pitching, and both are off to solid starts. Septimo has allowed just one hit and no runs in 4.2 innings with eight strikeouts and three walks. If he can keep this up, it may help ease the tensions within the organization about the left-handed relief situation, and allow us to jettison Zach Kroenke from the 40-man Roster in favor of Jeff Bailey, who is tearing through the PCL. Mercedes has been more hittable than Septimo, giving up seven hits and two earned runs in six innings, including a home run, but sports a slightly better 8:2 K:BB ratio. I personally expect both guys, particularly Septimo, to take a couple seasons to get to the majors, though Mercedes has demonstrated last year that he could pitch at AA and could be moved up to AAA at some point this season, where success could put him on a faster track to the majors.
1B Paul Goldschmidt - Hi-A Visalia - Rest assured, if Paul Goldschmidt keeps this up, he will make the highest jump on my 2011 top prospects list. Holy crap, Paul, give pitchers a chance, eh? He's already clubbed three homers after skipping both short-season Yakima and Mid-A South Bend, where guys like Bobby Borchering, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Stone are currently left struggling, and has jumped out to a 1.010 OPS. Goldschmidt's accomplishments have been even more impressive than teammate Marc Krauss' 1.056 OPS because Goldschmidt is working against a .110 BABIP gap between him and Krauss. And with Mobile trotting Bryan Byrne out at 1B every day, count on Goldschmidt to be promoted like, yesterday.
LF/1B Marc Krauss / 3B Kyle Greene - Hi-A Visalia - I lump Krauss and Greene together because they're carrying respective OPS's of 1.056 and .970, but both are doing it with the help of some massively inflated BABIP numbers. Krauss' BABIP is .452 and Greene's BABIP is .471. Neither of those numbers are sustainable, and as they regress, both of those OPS numbers will take huge hits downward. Both players are having good seasons, but their accomplishments need to be taken with the necessary piles of salt.
1B/3B Ryan Wheeler - Hi-A Visalia - I kept Wheeler separate because his overall OPS isn't as high as Goldschmidt, Krauss, or Greene, at .795, and even though Wheeler's BABIP is still clearly inflated, though to a lesser extent, at .390. Why Wheeler is here is because, according to reports I've read, his defense at third base has been far better than expected. This is huge news, as it could help to free up the mess of first-basemen within the D'backs' system. Further, as Wheeler becomes more acclimated to his new position, I expect that his offensive rates will begin to rebound as he can re-adjust his focus back to his plate approach. Mainly, Wheeler needs to rediscover his plate patience, as his golden 32:42 K:BB rate from across two levels a year ago has stumbled to 10:4 thus far. Granted, with just eight regular-season games in South Bend, this isn't exactly unexpected or unprecedented. After all, what Paul Goldschmidt shouldn't be our standard for level-jumps.
C Rossmel Perez - Hi-A Visalia - Remember when I said to see "way below" during the Coughlin paragraph? That's here. Perez is also off to a great start, batting .313 with a 3:3 K:BB ratio in 32 ABs. While he has very little power to speak of, he is patient and a tough out, and has a reputation for being great behind the plate. And while this can be evidenced by his throwing out 5 of 12 base-stealers, he also has had his share of struggles defensively with six passed balls in nine games. But for a kid who won't be legally allowed to drink until August and is at Hi-A ball, that's pretty darned good.
RHP Joshua Collmenter - Hi-A Visalia - Collmenter was stuck repeating Hi-A this year due simply to the bevy of depth the D'backs suddenly have in their minor-league rotations after posting the highest strikeout total of the entire system at Visalia in '09. He's done much of the same so far this year, with a 12:2 K:BB rate through 10 innings. Two home runs allowed have been a problem, and he's been far more fly-ball happy than last season, but that's not a significant enough problem that he really belongs in Hi-A. There's simply going to be no spots for him in Mobile until an injury necessitates call-ups.
RHP Bryan Woodall - Hi-A Visalia - Has been nearly un-hittable in his eight innings of relief work so far, striking out eleven, walking just two, allowing three hits and no runs. His WHIP stands at 0.63. Top that off with the fact that three of his outings have been for at least two innings of work, and you've got yourself a guy due for a promotion, pronto.
RHP Charles Brewer / RHP Eric Smith / LHP Mike Belfiore - Mid-A South Bend - It's been a grim season so far in South Bend, but there are a few pitchers from the 2009 draft class throwing particularly well, headlined by Brewer, though you may not think so at first. Of the three pitchers listed here, Brewer actually has the highest ERA, 3.45. However, in 15.2 innings of work, Brewer has struck out 18 batters and walked just two, all while giving up no home runs, for an astounding 1.29 FIP. Regardless of what you think of the stat, that's exceptional. Unfortunately, these numbers were skewed by BABIP, as Brewer has mysteriously allowed 17 hits (.354 BABIP). Smith has struck out six in eleven innings of work, and has a scary-good 0.55 WHIP and 1.64 ERA, but has given up a homer despite his typical ground-ball nature and been exceedingly fortunate on balls in play. Looking at Belfiore's numbers as a whole is confusing, because of how dramatically different each of his starts has gone. He hasn't allowed a run since his first start, in which he served up two home run balls and only struck out one batter in 3.2 innings. He walked five batters (striking out seven) in his following game, which a friend of mine attended, but didn't allow a run. His most recent start was the best of all, as he struck out six batters in five shutout innings, while walking none.
Currently Unhappy With The Concept Of Statistical Variance (guys whose numbers look worse than they are):
1B/OF Brandon Allen - AAA Reno - Allen's power is certainly not out, as three of his eight hits are home runs, and his ISO sits at a pleasant .233. Further, he continues to demonstrate good patience, drawing seven walks in 50 PAs. However, Allen has just five hits in 33 balls put in play, for a .152 BABIP, which has crushed his batting average, which sits at .186. A number that absurdly low demonstrates that sample size has decided to shaft Allen in the early-going, and as his BABIP begins to climb upwards, Allen's mediocre .739 OPS will skyrocket to the levels we're used to seeing.
RHP Billy Buckner - AAA Reno - Despite his horrid first start (5.0 IP, 7 ER), he has a 2.17 GO/AO ratio and a 12:3 K:BB ratio in 10.2 total innings, so luck has not been kind to him, especially his HR/FB ratio with those two home runs he has allowed. He also had a no-hitter in his last start through five innings, but wound up not getting through the sixth inning, being pulled with two outs after giving up a home run to A's stud prospect Chris Carter - not a bad guy to give up a homer to if you're going to give one up. Something tells me that we'll see Billy start to return to his end-of-'09 form as the season progresses, and that we'll see him in the majors at some point.
LHP Patrick McAnaney - AA Mobile - After a mediocre start to begin the season with Visalia, McAnaney was called up to Mobile mostly on the basis of his 2009 season and good raw stuff. His first start in Mobile was deceiving, as McAnaney pitched far better than a glancing-over of the bottom line would suggest. He allowed four earned runs in 5.2 innings, but had 7 K's, just 1 BB, and a 3.0 GO/AO ratio. Yet, he gave up eight hits despite those awesome metrics. If he can keep those numbers up, McAnaney will not sport a 6.35 ERA this season.
RHP Trevor Harden - Hi-A Visalia - Harden has thrown nine innings this season, striking out seven and allowing just one walk. Yet, he has an 8.00 ERA. Why, you ask? He has already coughed up four home runs. Now, even for a guy with a 0.73 GO/AO ratio, that's an absurd HR/FB ratio. If Harden's other metrics can stay the same, his numbers will begin to start reaching normality, and it'll be easier to see that he's a much better pitcher than those home runs have made it seem.
There's AutoZone For Stalled Cars, But What About Stalled Prospects? (guys who are straight-up struggling):
RHP Bryan Augenstein - AAA Reno - As mentioned near the beginning of the article, Augenstein isn't doing well. He has gone away from all of the things that make him successful as a pitcher. His GO/AO ratio through two starts, both of which were equally mediocre, is just 1.08, unacceptable for a ground-ball pitcher. He has served up two home runs already, as many as he'd allowed in eight Reno appearances last year (and even those appearances weren't that great). His K:BB ratio is 7:5, which is too many walks for a control specialist. Pure and simple, Augenstein's metrics have exploded on him, and he needs to put them back together if he thinks he's going to reach his back-end starter ceiling.
LHP Zach Kroenke - AAA Reno - It's been mentioned a couple times that Kroenke is "throwing suck" and may be jettisoned if he can't change this. To explain, he's struck out two batters in 6.1 innings while walking four, and coughing up eleven hits and a home run. The end results are an unsightly 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP. After losing a major-league job to a guy who hadn't had success above Hi-A with a poor Spring Training, Kroenke's time with the Diamondbacks may be coming to a very early close.
SS Taylor Harbin - AA Mobile - He's hitting .313, I know, but the offensive metrics combined with three errors defensively (errors suck in measuring defensive ability, but I don't have UZR for minor league guys and defense has never been his specialty) drastically outweigh that batting average. His BABIP is .375, ISO is .041, and he's drawn two walks in 50 PA's. He really needs to bring the walk and strikeout numbers closer together, as an 8:2 K:BB isn't going to cut it unless you can crush the ball, and Harbin cannot do that. Shortstop is generally a thin position in the system once you get past Ciriaco at AAA until you reach Owings at Mid-A, and many still question whether or not Owings'll stick there.
LHP Wade Miley - Hi-A Visalia - "Stalled" is an unfair distinction for Miley, who was the Opening Day starter for Visalia and currently has a 4.02 ERA, but that number is deceiving, as Miley has walked more batters than he has struck out. For a guy who had a 102:33 K:BB ratio last season, 6:9 isn't going to cut it. He's managed to get through it with a spike in his GO/AO ratio and a .255 BABIP, but those aren't going to be there for him forever. A guy who people thought would be going through the system towards the majors faster than he has so far, he needs to get his control back and start striking guys out again to keep progressing if he wants to make it to the bigs at all.
3B/1B Bobby Borchering / CF Keon Broxton / OF/1B Bobby Stone - Pretty much nobody is doing well for South Bend, but these three are doing the worst when compared with expectations. Borchering, Broxton, and Stone sport respective OPS's of .599, .561, and .438. Ouch. For a team that came into the season with such high expectations, having just one win is a tremendous disappointment. There really isn't much that can be said that's good news for these guys other than that they're all young and have time. Of the group, I'm probably the most optimistic about Borchering, as he was hitless through his first three games, and had just one hit through his first five, before starting an 8-28 stretch, so he appears to simply be getting used to the new environment. Broxton has been just generally awful, though thankfully not to the extent as Stone (we'll get there in a sec). 18 strikeouts in 45 at-bats is terrible, and the 3 walks to go with them is also awful. He has two triples and a double, but no homers, and his .111 ISO is underwhelming. Basically, a .561 OPS is bad. Worse, though, is a .438 OPS. That is what Bobby Stone has. And after two years at Rookie-level Missoula, you'd expect the 20-year-old Stone to be a little more adjusted to professional baseball and off-speed pitching than he has demonstrated. His swing is still incredibly long, and he simply cannot make contact. 15 strikeouts in 36 at-bats, even with four walks, is not going to keep him in the system for long, whatever his raw power potential is.
So there it is, an afternoon I had to waste completely taken up before tonight's game. The depth in the upper part of the system looks surprisingly good this year, especially in terms of pitching, but yet the lower-level bat depth we were supposed to have hasn't left as good of an impression as we'd hoped for. And such is the mysterious world of baseball.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
2010 Season Preview - Reno Aces
Amidst all of the hubbub over these so called "major-league" teams, Zephon and I have decided to throw together some season previews for the full-season minor-league affiliates. I'll be covering the Reno and South Bend squads, while Zephon will cover Mobile and Visalia. Needless to say, the system is in better shape than it was in last year due to the stellar 2009 draft. First up though is Reno, and we'll see that the '09 draft obviously has done little to help the state of things in AAA.
Starting Pitching:
First on the docket is a look at the rotation. It's a pretty simple situation, with five guys as candidates for major-league call-ups as needed throughout the season filling up all five spots, with whoever performs the best likely getting the call if needed. Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augenstein, Kris Benson, and Cesar Valdez have all had success in either the upper minors, and even the major leagues for Benson and Buckner, so the hot arm will be the one selected for as-needed spot starts. So far only four of them have thrown, with Benson being the lone starter to not start a game already. The results? Mixed. Very mixed:
Buckner - 5 IP, 7 R (7 Earned), 10 H, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 HR - Pretty poor performance. Billy is going to need the strike more batters out if he wants to have any success. The guy once thought to be the lead candidate for the fourth/fifth starter job now appears to have fallen down to seventh, even without factoring in a possible return of Brandon Webb.
Mulvey - 6.1 IP, 2 R (2 Earned), 6 H, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 HR - Despite the seemingly-insignificant difference in rates between the Buckner/Mulvey starts, Mulvey ended with much better numbers, presumably (and this is mere speculation) by keeping the ball down and out of the thin Reno air, which is also something he'll need to do to be successful at Chase. If you ask me, he's moved up to #5 on the starter chain (Webb not accounted for), and will be called up on the 17th.
Augenstein - 5.2 IP, 5 R (5 Earned), 4 H, 3 K, 3 BB, 1 HR - This shows you that you don't have to hit the ball all over the ballpark to score plenty of runs. Walks bit Augenstein, the supposed control artist, in the rear in his start, as well as a fourth-inning two-run homer from Fred Lewis (yes, the Giants' Fred Lewis). He's got a little more work to do to get back to his pre-injury form from Mobile last season. Should be ready for 2011, but don't count on him until September this year.
Valdez - 4.2 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 7 K, 3 BB, 0 HR - The dark horse spot starter candidate showed up big in his first start of the year, despite throwing just 88 pitches and getting just two outs through the fifth. The K total stands out, especially given that he only recorded 14 outs overall. He's a sinkerball-thrower who keeps the ball in the park, and would have been called up last year had he not been hurt shortly after Augenstein's stint in the big leagues. If Benson isn't effective and there's an injury after Mulvey gets called up, I see no reason why anybody but Valdez would be called up based on the initial results.
Relief Pitching:
The relief corps in Reno contains a few names that we could see in the bigs this year. Clay Zavada (0.1 IP, 3 ER), Zach Kroenke (2 IP, 2 ER), and T.J. Beam (3.1 IP, 0 ER) are names that a lot of us are familiar with, though they have hardly lived up to their reputations. The rest of the crowd includes the aging Jason Urquidez, back-from-TJ Daniel Stange, Billy Spottiswood, who is continuously shuttled from Reno to Visalia and back, the equally-aging Jose Marte, and Josh Ellis. Keep an eye on Stange, a guy who is steadily recovering from his TJ and was once a guy who could hit 98 on the gun.
Catching:
We all know how good John Hester is, but with the recent injury to Miguel Montero, he's been called up to the majors and replaced with another hot prospect, Sean Coughlin. Coughlin has a major bat and could find himself ready for major-league action as soon as next year, giving us a pleasant surplus of catchers at a time when catchers are of immense value. The other Reno catcher, Carlos Corporan, was a waiver pickup from Milwaukee who won't amount to much but a solid defensive catcher, and has little to no bat.
Infield:
Reno's roster has a couple of very promising infielders, beginning with slugging first-baseman Brandon Allen. While we're toying with the idea of Allen in the outfield, he's only played at first so far this season. Regardless, he's off to a rousing start with a .974 OPS. Slick-fielding second-baseman Mark Hallberg has had a decent debut, just getting his feet wet at AAA and enjoying the favorable hitting environment in getting on-base in 6 of his 16 plate appearances. Otherwise, RyRo hopes to get out of his Spring Training funk (though the initial results haven't been thrilling), Ed Rogers is his AAAA self, and Yunesky Sanchez hopes to regain his 2008 form after an off-year in '09. Expect to see Allen and perhaps RyRo in the majors this year, and don't be shocked if Hallberg's name pops up come September.
Outfield:
There are also four familiar names from big-league Spring Training manning the Reno outfield, Drew Macias, Cole Gillespie, Jeff Bailey, and Doug Deeds. Gillespie and Bailey have started hot, while Macias was hit-less through three games and Deeds has done nothing too exciting thus far. This also appears to be the pecking order for big-league call-ups amongst these names, with Gillespie being first on the fill-in list, followed by Bailey, Macias, and then Deeds. Joining them is Chris Rahl, who spent last year having a mediocre season at Mobile, and probably needs more time.
That's all for Reno, look out for the lower minors starting sometime this week.
Starting Pitching:
First on the docket is a look at the rotation. It's a pretty simple situation, with five guys as candidates for major-league call-ups as needed throughout the season filling up all five spots, with whoever performs the best likely getting the call if needed. Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augenstein, Kris Benson, and Cesar Valdez have all had success in either the upper minors, and even the major leagues for Benson and Buckner, so the hot arm will be the one selected for as-needed spot starts. So far only four of them have thrown, with Benson being the lone starter to not start a game already. The results? Mixed. Very mixed:
Buckner - 5 IP, 7 R (7 Earned), 10 H, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 HR - Pretty poor performance. Billy is going to need the strike more batters out if he wants to have any success. The guy once thought to be the lead candidate for the fourth/fifth starter job now appears to have fallen down to seventh, even without factoring in a possible return of Brandon Webb.
Mulvey - 6.1 IP, 2 R (2 Earned), 6 H, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 HR - Despite the seemingly-insignificant difference in rates between the Buckner/Mulvey starts, Mulvey ended with much better numbers, presumably (and this is mere speculation) by keeping the ball down and out of the thin Reno air, which is also something he'll need to do to be successful at Chase. If you ask me, he's moved up to #5 on the starter chain (Webb not accounted for), and will be called up on the 17th.
Augenstein - 5.2 IP, 5 R (5 Earned), 4 H, 3 K, 3 BB, 1 HR - This shows you that you don't have to hit the ball all over the ballpark to score plenty of runs. Walks bit Augenstein, the supposed control artist, in the rear in his start, as well as a fourth-inning two-run homer from Fred Lewis (yes, the Giants' Fred Lewis). He's got a little more work to do to get back to his pre-injury form from Mobile last season. Should be ready for 2011, but don't count on him until September this year.
Valdez - 4.2 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 7 K, 3 BB, 0 HR - The dark horse spot starter candidate showed up big in his first start of the year, despite throwing just 88 pitches and getting just two outs through the fifth. The K total stands out, especially given that he only recorded 14 outs overall. He's a sinkerball-thrower who keeps the ball in the park, and would have been called up last year had he not been hurt shortly after Augenstein's stint in the big leagues. If Benson isn't effective and there's an injury after Mulvey gets called up, I see no reason why anybody but Valdez would be called up based on the initial results.
Relief Pitching:
The relief corps in Reno contains a few names that we could see in the bigs this year. Clay Zavada (0.1 IP, 3 ER), Zach Kroenke (2 IP, 2 ER), and T.J. Beam (3.1 IP, 0 ER) are names that a lot of us are familiar with, though they have hardly lived up to their reputations. The rest of the crowd includes the aging Jason Urquidez, back-from-TJ Daniel Stange, Billy Spottiswood, who is continuously shuttled from Reno to Visalia and back, the equally-aging Jose Marte, and Josh Ellis. Keep an eye on Stange, a guy who is steadily recovering from his TJ and was once a guy who could hit 98 on the gun.
Catching:
We all know how good John Hester is, but with the recent injury to Miguel Montero, he's been called up to the majors and replaced with another hot prospect, Sean Coughlin. Coughlin has a major bat and could find himself ready for major-league action as soon as next year, giving us a pleasant surplus of catchers at a time when catchers are of immense value. The other Reno catcher, Carlos Corporan, was a waiver pickup from Milwaukee who won't amount to much but a solid defensive catcher, and has little to no bat.
Infield:
Reno's roster has a couple of very promising infielders, beginning with slugging first-baseman Brandon Allen. While we're toying with the idea of Allen in the outfield, he's only played at first so far this season. Regardless, he's off to a rousing start with a .974 OPS. Slick-fielding second-baseman Mark Hallberg has had a decent debut, just getting his feet wet at AAA and enjoying the favorable hitting environment in getting on-base in 6 of his 16 plate appearances. Otherwise, RyRo hopes to get out of his Spring Training funk (though the initial results haven't been thrilling), Ed Rogers is his AAAA self, and Yunesky Sanchez hopes to regain his 2008 form after an off-year in '09. Expect to see Allen and perhaps RyRo in the majors this year, and don't be shocked if Hallberg's name pops up come September.
Outfield:
There are also four familiar names from big-league Spring Training manning the Reno outfield, Drew Macias, Cole Gillespie, Jeff Bailey, and Doug Deeds. Gillespie and Bailey have started hot, while Macias was hit-less through three games and Deeds has done nothing too exciting thus far. This also appears to be the pecking order for big-league call-ups amongst these names, with Gillespie being first on the fill-in list, followed by Bailey, Macias, and then Deeds. Joining them is Chris Rahl, who spent last year having a mediocre season at Mobile, and probably needs more time.
That's all for Reno, look out for the lower minors starting sometime this week.
Minor-League Rosters Finalized for South Bend, Visalia, Mobile, and Reno
The rosters for the Diamondbacks' four full-season minor-league teams have been officially announced. Wes and I will be going further into detail on these rosters throughout the next couple of weeks, but I figured that, since I have a Complex Variables quiz to put off finishing, it would be nice to get them all up in the meantime for any to quickly glance at.
Mid-A South Bend SilverHawks
Pitchers (13):
Chase Anderson (R)
Michael Belfiore (L)
Charles Brewer (R)
Brian Budrow (R)
Bradin Hagens (R)
Christopher Odegaard (R)
Yonata Ortega (R)
Rafael Quezada (R)
Randy Rodriguez (R)
Diogenes Rosario (R)
Eric Smith (R)
Keny Sosa (L)
Daniel Taylor (L)
Catchers (2):
Ryan Babineau (R)
Errol Hollinger (R)
Infielders (6):
Bobby Borchering 3B/1B (S)
Matthew Davidson 3B/1B (R)
Victor Estevez 3B (R)
David Narodowski SS/OF (R)
David Nick 2B (R)
Chris Owings SS (R)
Outfielders (4):
Keon Broxton CF (R)
Alberto Diaz CF (R)
Ender Inciarte LF (L)
Bobby Stone RF/1B (L)
Hi-A Visalia Rawhide
Pitchers (13):
Christian Beltre (R)
Victor Capellan (R)
Joshua Collmenter (R)
Trevor Harden (R)
T.J. Hose (R)
Justin Mace (R)
Patrick McAnaney (L)
Wade Miley (L)
Brett Moorhouse (R)
Ryan Robowski (L)
Taylor Sinclair (L)
Billy Spottiswood (R)
Bryan Woodall (R)
Catchers (2):
Chris Davis (R)
Rossmel Perez (S)
Infielders (7):
Andrew Fie 3B (R)
Josh Ford IF (R)
Paul Goldschmidt 1B (R)
Kyle Greene 3B (L)
Brent Greer SS (R)
Rey Navarro SS (S)
Ryan Wheeler (L)
Outfielders (4):
Daniel Kaczrowski LF (R)
Marc Krauss LF (L)
Alfredo Marte LF (R)
Tim Sherlock (L)
AA Mobile BayBears
Pitchers (13):
Jeff Dietz (R)
Barry Enright (R)
Bryan Henry (R)
Tom Layne (L)
Reid Mahon(R)
Roque Mercedes (R)
Kyler Newby (R)
Wes Roemer (R)
Leyson Septimo (L)
Bryan Shaw (R)
Matt Torra (R)
Daniel Vasquez (R)
Abe Woody (R)
Catchers (3):
Sean Coughlin C/1B (L)
Ed Easley (R)
Konrad Schmidt (R)
Infielders (5):
Bryan Byrne 1B (L)
Jacob Elmore 2B (R)
Taylor Harbin SS (R)
Ricardo Sosa 3B (R)
Jake Wald SS (R)
Outfielders (5):
Peter Clifford LF (L)
Collin Cowgill RF (R)
Evan Frey CF (L)
Cyle Hankerd LF (R)
Ollie Linton CF (L)
AAA Reno Aces
Pitchers (12):
Bryan Augenstein (R)
T.J. Beam (R)
Kris Benson (R)
Billy Buckner (R)
Josh Ellis (R)
Zach Kroenke (L)
Jose Marte (R)
Kevin Mulvey (R)
Daniel Stange (R)
Jason Urquidez (R)
Cesar Valdez (R)
Clay Zavada (L)
Catchers (2):
Carlos Corporan (S)
John Hester (R)
Infielders (6):
Brandon Allen 1B (L)
Pedro Ciriaco MI (R) - Begins season on Disabled List
Mark Hallberg 2B (R)
Ed Rogers 3B (R)
Ryan Roberts 2B/3B (R)
Yunesky Sanchez SS (S)
Outfielders (5):
Jeff Bailey RF/1B (R)
Doug Deeds OF (L)
Cole Gillespie OF (R)
Drew Macias CF (L)
Chris Rahl RF (R)
Mid-A South Bend SilverHawks
Pitchers (13):
Chase Anderson (R)
Michael Belfiore (L)
Charles Brewer (R)
Brian Budrow (R)
Bradin Hagens (R)
Christopher Odegaard (R)
Yonata Ortega (R)
Rafael Quezada (R)
Randy Rodriguez (R)
Diogenes Rosario (R)
Eric Smith (R)
Keny Sosa (L)
Daniel Taylor (L)
Catchers (2):
Ryan Babineau (R)
Errol Hollinger (R)
Infielders (6):
Bobby Borchering 3B/1B (S)
Matthew Davidson 3B/1B (R)
Victor Estevez 3B (R)
David Narodowski SS/OF (R)
David Nick 2B (R)
Chris Owings SS (R)
Outfielders (4):
Keon Broxton CF (R)
Alberto Diaz CF (R)
Ender Inciarte LF (L)
Bobby Stone RF/1B (L)
Hi-A Visalia Rawhide
Pitchers (13):
Christian Beltre (R)
Victor Capellan (R)
Joshua Collmenter (R)
Trevor Harden (R)
T.J. Hose (R)
Justin Mace (R)
Patrick McAnaney (L)
Wade Miley (L)
Brett Moorhouse (R)
Ryan Robowski (L)
Taylor Sinclair (L)
Billy Spottiswood (R)
Bryan Woodall (R)
Catchers (2):
Chris Davis (R)
Rossmel Perez (S)
Infielders (7):
Andrew Fie 3B (R)
Josh Ford IF (R)
Paul Goldschmidt 1B (R)
Kyle Greene 3B (L)
Brent Greer SS (R)
Rey Navarro SS (S)
Ryan Wheeler (L)
Outfielders (4):
Daniel Kaczrowski LF (R)
Marc Krauss LF (L)
Alfredo Marte LF (R)
Tim Sherlock (L)
AA Mobile BayBears
Pitchers (13):
Jeff Dietz (R)
Barry Enright (R)
Bryan Henry (R)
Tom Layne (L)
Reid Mahon(R)
Roque Mercedes (R)
Kyler Newby (R)
Wes Roemer (R)
Leyson Septimo (L)
Bryan Shaw (R)
Matt Torra (R)
Daniel Vasquez (R)
Abe Woody (R)
Catchers (3):
Sean Coughlin C/1B (L)
Ed Easley (R)
Konrad Schmidt (R)
Infielders (5):
Bryan Byrne 1B (L)
Jacob Elmore 2B (R)
Taylor Harbin SS (R)
Ricardo Sosa 3B (R)
Jake Wald SS (R)
Outfielders (5):
Peter Clifford LF (L)
Collin Cowgill RF (R)
Evan Frey CF (L)
Cyle Hankerd LF (R)
Ollie Linton CF (L)
AAA Reno Aces
Pitchers (12):
Bryan Augenstein (R)
T.J. Beam (R)
Kris Benson (R)
Billy Buckner (R)
Josh Ellis (R)
Zach Kroenke (L)
Jose Marte (R)
Kevin Mulvey (R)
Daniel Stange (R)
Jason Urquidez (R)
Cesar Valdez (R)
Clay Zavada (L)
Catchers (2):
Carlos Corporan (S)
John Hester (R)
Infielders (6):
Brandon Allen 1B (L)
Pedro Ciriaco MI (R) - Begins season on Disabled List
Mark Hallberg 2B (R)
Ed Rogers 3B (R)
Ryan Roberts 2B/3B (R)
Yunesky Sanchez SS (S)
Outfielders (5):
Jeff Bailey RF/1B (R)
Doug Deeds OF (L)
Cole Gillespie OF (R)
Drew Macias CF (L)
Chris Rahl RF (R)
Friday, March 26, 2010
Should the Diamondbacks have Traded Miguel Montero?
I was sitting in Business Stats, effectively bored out of my mind and thinking of things completely unrelated to the course when my mind drifted once again to the catching overload that the Diamondbacks currently have in the upper levels of the system and the major leagues. It has been well-documented that we've been shopping Chris Snyder, and actually almost managed to pull off a deal to send him to Toronto. In what will be amongst the greatest what-ifs of the season, and even of the Opening Day roster, we were a couple of medical tests away from sending Snyder to Toronto for 1B Lyle Overbay. Had this happened, we'd have effectively the same roster we have right now sans Snyder, with Overbay replacing Adam LaRoche as left-handed 1B du jour in the middle of our order, and another roster spot available to keep John Hester as our backup. The lineup would be extremely similar in offensive capability, and we would not have had to stretch our budget as much as we did.
But, those medicals scared the Blue Jays away, and with LaRoche on-board and the Jays bound for likely suckitude with Roy Halladay out the door, it's not going to be a trade that will be re-discussed near the deadline. So now I pose this question: when the Snyder-to-Toronto deal fell apart and it was clear that the chances of trading Snyder in the off-season was slim-to-none, should we have begun shopping Miguel Montero? After all, Montero has been courted before, most notably by the Red Sox, so it wouldn't have come completely out of left field. Both arguments for making a deal and against making a deal, as well as an overall rundown of the situation, following the break.
________________________________
The Argument for Trading Montero:
I first came up with this idea thinking about how many followers of the DBacks have shown hesitance in continuing to shop Snyder when his trade value is so low and all we're likely to get is some minimal salary relief, if that. I then thought "if we don't want to trade Snyder after a bad, injury-plagued year, why not trade Montero now after a huge breakout year, since there is a legitimate chance of regression?" And Spring Training numbers back up this fear. Montero is currently sporting an awful line of .121/.293/.182 in ST. If his production offensively significantly declines from last year's breakout, the replacement value of extra starts from Snyder and a few from Hester, plus the bounty we could have gotten for Montero could easily be worth more than what Montero gives us.
Also, consider the catching market this off-season. Jason Kendall received two-years and $4M from the Royals. Ivan Rodriguez received two-years and $6M from the Nationals. Brian Schneider got two-years and $2.75M from Philadelphia. Gregg Zaun is getting $2.15M on a one-year deal he just signed with the Brewers. Bengie Molina... for the sake of the people of the Bay Area, we'll not go there. The only deal for a free-agent catcher this off-season where you can say that the team actually has a good chance of getting more than they paid for is Toronto's one-year, $2M inking of Travis Buck. But Montero? He'll be making $2M this year after avoiding arbitration in his first year of eligibility. He is under control through 2012. And if he can maintain his offensive production from the second half of last season through this season, he's a top-5 catcher. The type of value Montero provides is worth a lot, especially when you take into account the absolutely massive premium that is being placed on catchers in the current market. If we could have pried away a top-tier, major league-ready pitching prospect plus some lower-level guys with upside for Montero (is this too much to ask for? I don't think so), it would have solidified our biggest weakness for 2010 and possibly improved the outlook for the future. Imagine a 2014 rotation of Dan Haren, Jarrod Parker, Top Pitching Prospect Du Jour, Ian Kennedy, and Current Mid-Level DBacks Prospect / Back-End Free Agent Du Jour. Yes, please.
Plus, it's not like dealing Montero leaves the cupboards bare for the DBacks. Not many teams have an asset like John Hester - a major-league ready, legitimate backup catcher with one September on his service clock making minimum dollars for the foreseeable future. The guy was a AAA-All Star in 2009, due to his bat, and that is after having a career reputation as a defensive-oriented catcher. The guy has literally nothing left to prove by being in AAA. With Snyder having some health concerns, Hester would have to start his fair share of games. But which would you take - choosing one starter as a stop-gap for Webb and having a Snyder/Hester platoon at catcher, or having Rodrigo Lopez in the rotation for the entire season (which looks to be the case as of now, as he's been the most impressive of the fifth-starter candidates) and choosing another guy to be a stop-gap for Webb with a Montero/Snyder platoon and Hester in AAA? It's certainly a tough call.
The Argument for Keeping Montero:
Montero put up a 3.1 WAR last year, and while CHONE is down on him, projecting just a 2.2 WAR for 2010, who is CHONE not down on? On the other hand, Fans has Montero pegged for a 3.8 WAR. That's the equivalent of $17.3M in salary. I don't think that's unobtainable, but a lot of things are going to have to go right for Montero, and they're going to have to start going right quickly. Aggregate that over the next three years, factor in some slight improvements as he develops, and you're going to have to make sure you get $50M (or more) in value back over the next three years for Montero in any deal. Distributing those numbers equally over the three years and valuing it back to the present (with an arbitrary $6% discount rate and placing the value of a year's performance at the start of that year), that's still about $47.2M in present-day value. Discount the salary Montero is likely to make through arbitration over the next two years plus the $2M salary this year, and you'll subtract around $17M (my basis for this - $2M in '10, with pretty hefty raises to $5M in '11 and $10M in '12 on the basis of his position), and you're left with about $30M in WAR value. Montero was good last year, but was he worth that much on the trade market? According to Victor Wang at The Hardball Times, that's the value of two top-10 pitching prospects. That would definitely fix our rotation problems, but since we're obviously not getting that kind of bounty, why trade Montero for less than what many expect his value to be?
Now, to address a pair of concerns from the previous section. Montero's poor Spring Training performance may perhaps be explained mostly by bad luck. On balls in play, Montero is hitting 4-27 (.148), and he boasts a K/BB ratio of 6/7. Also in the previous section, I mentioned that Snyder would likely be limited in starts due to his health concerns. But if we trade Montero, what happens to us if Snyder goes completely out-of-commission for an extended period of time because of his back? Hester is a good backup, but is he a starter-quality catcher on a team with playoff aspirations? Could we really depend on Konrad Schmidt, who, despite having collected a single and two doubles in his five Spring Training at-bats, has played all of five games above A-ball in his career to be the backup at the major-league level? Would we turn to free-agent non-roster invitee castoff Carlos Corporan? These are some absolutely huge risks to take by trading a steady, starting-caliber catcher with no history of injury on a team that hopes to contend, especially a team already loaded with some pretty significant risks.
The Overall Rundown:
The way I see it, the possibility of trading Montero is the epitome of high-risk, high-reward. The thing is, the Diamondbacks already have a ton of risk embedded within this team. Between Brandon Webb, the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen, we need a few things to work out in our favor. So trading Montero would have simply added another risk, and that's if there even was a team that would have been able to give us sufficient value for Montero and simultaneously been enough in contention over the next couple of years to consider sacrificing part of their future to add Montero.
Looking ahead now, it doesn't really make sense to trade Montero, say, next summer. Why? Well, because his value will have significantly diminished. He will have one fewer year of control, and the most cost-effective year of control at that. So the replacement value will have significantly diminished to the point where even getting a single top-10 pitching prospect would be somewhere close to equivalent value for Montero, and trading a premium catcher with two years of control for one prospect probably wouldn't be a move the organization would be looking to make unless they were looking to completely dismantle the squad and rebuild for 2012-2014 (which may actually be a possibility, now that I think about it...). So while this debate is mostly moot for now, it's simply something that interested me. After all, there are still ten days during which I have to come up with baseball topics to discuss before the games finally start. :)
But, those medicals scared the Blue Jays away, and with LaRoche on-board and the Jays bound for likely suckitude with Roy Halladay out the door, it's not going to be a trade that will be re-discussed near the deadline. So now I pose this question: when the Snyder-to-Toronto deal fell apart and it was clear that the chances of trading Snyder in the off-season was slim-to-none, should we have begun shopping Miguel Montero? After all, Montero has been courted before, most notably by the Red Sox, so it wouldn't have come completely out of left field. Both arguments for making a deal and against making a deal, as well as an overall rundown of the situation, following the break.
________________________________
The Argument for Trading Montero:
I first came up with this idea thinking about how many followers of the DBacks have shown hesitance in continuing to shop Snyder when his trade value is so low and all we're likely to get is some minimal salary relief, if that. I then thought "if we don't want to trade Snyder after a bad, injury-plagued year, why not trade Montero now after a huge breakout year, since there is a legitimate chance of regression?" And Spring Training numbers back up this fear. Montero is currently sporting an awful line of .121/.293/.182 in ST. If his production offensively significantly declines from last year's breakout, the replacement value of extra starts from Snyder and a few from Hester, plus the bounty we could have gotten for Montero could easily be worth more than what Montero gives us.
Also, consider the catching market this off-season. Jason Kendall received two-years and $4M from the Royals. Ivan Rodriguez received two-years and $6M from the Nationals. Brian Schneider got two-years and $2.75M from Philadelphia. Gregg Zaun is getting $2.15M on a one-year deal he just signed with the Brewers. Bengie Molina... for the sake of the people of the Bay Area, we'll not go there. The only deal for a free-agent catcher this off-season where you can say that the team actually has a good chance of getting more than they paid for is Toronto's one-year, $2M inking of Travis Buck. But Montero? He'll be making $2M this year after avoiding arbitration in his first year of eligibility. He is under control through 2012. And if he can maintain his offensive production from the second half of last season through this season, he's a top-5 catcher. The type of value Montero provides is worth a lot, especially when you take into account the absolutely massive premium that is being placed on catchers in the current market. If we could have pried away a top-tier, major league-ready pitching prospect plus some lower-level guys with upside for Montero (is this too much to ask for? I don't think so), it would have solidified our biggest weakness for 2010 and possibly improved the outlook for the future. Imagine a 2014 rotation of Dan Haren, Jarrod Parker, Top Pitching Prospect Du Jour, Ian Kennedy, and Current Mid-Level DBacks Prospect / Back-End Free Agent Du Jour. Yes, please.
Plus, it's not like dealing Montero leaves the cupboards bare for the DBacks. Not many teams have an asset like John Hester - a major-league ready, legitimate backup catcher with one September on his service clock making minimum dollars for the foreseeable future. The guy was a AAA-All Star in 2009, due to his bat, and that is after having a career reputation as a defensive-oriented catcher. The guy has literally nothing left to prove by being in AAA. With Snyder having some health concerns, Hester would have to start his fair share of games. But which would you take - choosing one starter as a stop-gap for Webb and having a Snyder/Hester platoon at catcher, or having Rodrigo Lopez in the rotation for the entire season (which looks to be the case as of now, as he's been the most impressive of the fifth-starter candidates) and choosing another guy to be a stop-gap for Webb with a Montero/Snyder platoon and Hester in AAA? It's certainly a tough call.
The Argument for Keeping Montero:
Montero put up a 3.1 WAR last year, and while CHONE is down on him, projecting just a 2.2 WAR for 2010, who is CHONE not down on? On the other hand, Fans has Montero pegged for a 3.8 WAR. That's the equivalent of $17.3M in salary. I don't think that's unobtainable, but a lot of things are going to have to go right for Montero, and they're going to have to start going right quickly. Aggregate that over the next three years, factor in some slight improvements as he develops, and you're going to have to make sure you get $50M (or more) in value back over the next three years for Montero in any deal. Distributing those numbers equally over the three years and valuing it back to the present (with an arbitrary $6% discount rate and placing the value of a year's performance at the start of that year), that's still about $47.2M in present-day value. Discount the salary Montero is likely to make through arbitration over the next two years plus the $2M salary this year, and you'll subtract around $17M (my basis for this - $2M in '10, with pretty hefty raises to $5M in '11 and $10M in '12 on the basis of his position), and you're left with about $30M in WAR value. Montero was good last year, but was he worth that much on the trade market? According to Victor Wang at The Hardball Times, that's the value of two top-10 pitching prospects. That would definitely fix our rotation problems, but since we're obviously not getting that kind of bounty, why trade Montero for less than what many expect his value to be?
Now, to address a pair of concerns from the previous section. Montero's poor Spring Training performance may perhaps be explained mostly by bad luck. On balls in play, Montero is hitting 4-27 (.148), and he boasts a K/BB ratio of 6/7. Also in the previous section, I mentioned that Snyder would likely be limited in starts due to his health concerns. But if we trade Montero, what happens to us if Snyder goes completely out-of-commission for an extended period of time because of his back? Hester is a good backup, but is he a starter-quality catcher on a team with playoff aspirations? Could we really depend on Konrad Schmidt, who, despite having collected a single and two doubles in his five Spring Training at-bats, has played all of five games above A-ball in his career to be the backup at the major-league level? Would we turn to free-agent non-roster invitee castoff Carlos Corporan? These are some absolutely huge risks to take by trading a steady, starting-caliber catcher with no history of injury on a team that hopes to contend, especially a team already loaded with some pretty significant risks.
The Overall Rundown:
The way I see it, the possibility of trading Montero is the epitome of high-risk, high-reward. The thing is, the Diamondbacks already have a ton of risk embedded within this team. Between Brandon Webb, the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen, we need a few things to work out in our favor. So trading Montero would have simply added another risk, and that's if there even was a team that would have been able to give us sufficient value for Montero and simultaneously been enough in contention over the next couple of years to consider sacrificing part of their future to add Montero.
Looking ahead now, it doesn't really make sense to trade Montero, say, next summer. Why? Well, because his value will have significantly diminished. He will have one fewer year of control, and the most cost-effective year of control at that. So the replacement value will have significantly diminished to the point where even getting a single top-10 pitching prospect would be somewhere close to equivalent value for Montero, and trading a premium catcher with two years of control for one prospect probably wouldn't be a move the organization would be looking to make unless they were looking to completely dismantle the squad and rebuild for 2012-2014 (which may actually be a possibility, now that I think about it...). So while this debate is mostly moot for now, it's simply something that interested me. After all, there are still ten days during which I have to come up with baseball topics to discuss before the games finally start. :)
Friday, March 12, 2010
The Sixth Rotation Spot - Who Do You Want To See?
With the ever-growing likelihood that Brandon Webb is not available to start the 2010 season in the D-Backs rotation, we now are left to browse through the bowels of our major-league-ready starting pitching options to see what we have available. Especially with the plentitude of suck provided by last year's fill-in guys, it's definitely going to be necessary to fully explore the options we have at our disposal to keep us afloat for 2010. So I've decided to put up a piece (mainly for SnakePit polling purposes) briefly detailing what we have at our disposal (assuming we give Billy Buckner the fifth spot, which seems all but certain at this point).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
- RHP Kevin Mulvey - Had an awful major-league stint last year between the Twins and D-Backs, with an 8.14 ERA, leading to him being quickly forgotten-about as a strong candidate for a rotation spot as Billy Buckner emerged near the end of last season. However, he has put up solid numbers in the high minors in the last two seasons, and possesses the proper repertoire to start in the majors, with a low-90's two-seam fastball, a slider, a curve, and the rare changeup. Had a good spring training last year with the Twins, and threw two scoreless innings in his one start with the Diamondbacks this spring, allowing just a walk and a hit. One concern is that his ERA dipped slightly from his '08 numbers at Rochester to '09 at Rochester (the Twins' AAA affiliate), so there are questions about whether or not he has much remaining ability to improve despite being one of the younger candidates.
- RHP Rodrigo Lopez - He's had himself a roller-coaster of a major-league career, from being the runner up for the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2002 to being relegated to middle relief in 2004, from TJ Surgery in 2007 to playing A-ball in 2008, and finally from recording his first win in almost two years with the Phillies last year to his new minor-league deal with the Diamondbacks. He's probably a guy I'm not giving enough credit, although his mediocre control in front of top scouts 'Skins and me last Monday wasn't beneficial to his reputation. The bottom line with this guy is that if he can return to his pre-TJ form, he'll be better than our other options, as he posted a 4.42 ERA while pitching at Coors Field in '07. Essentially, control is going to be his make-or-break tool. 4 earned runs in 4 Spring Training innings isn't helping.
- RHP Bryan Augenstein - His major-league stint with the Diamondbacks last year was certainly more impressive than Mulvey's, but he faced struggles and injuries upon being sent to Reno. Is his elbow ok? Has he had enough minor-league seasoning since his last major-league stint to actually perform significantly better? Are we setting this kid up for too much failure and dooming a potentially bright future? All of these questions surround Augenstein and make it appear as if a season at AAA-Reno is a good idea. But there is also the opinion that he pitched better than his numbers suggest in his time in the bigs last season. At the end of the day for Augenstein, though, the 6 earned runs in his 2.2 Spring Training innings will put him in Reno to start 2010.
- RHP Cesar Valdez - Probably would have been called up last year were it not for an untimely injury, and his recovery from that injury has not gone as planned. He struggled after the injury in Reno and the AFL, and has been awful so far in his 2 Spring Training innings. Definitely had his name in the mix pre-AFL, and may have even been a favorite, but appears to have worked his way out of it.
Other guys to note:
- While at the recent Spring Training game, 'Skins asked why we haven't tried to put Esmerling Vasquez back into the rotation post-labrum tear. It's an interesting point to make, especially since we appear to have one too many relief arms for the number of bullpen spots. So while it probably would take some time to get him used to throwing every fifth day, why not try Essy in the Reno rotation so we can then keep Leo Rosales, who continues to impress, on the roster? If he has acclimated himself to the role well at mid-season, perhaps he can be a guy to bring up if the other guys are struggling.
- There are a couple of guys who ended last year in the Mobile rotation who have looked impressive in their first glimpses of Spring Training. Both Barry Enright and Wes Roemer have been spotless in 3 and 3.1 innings, respectively, each giving up just one hit and two walks. Obviously it would be remarkably dumb to put a guy in the fifth spot of the rotation because of three ST innings, but looking to 2011, these might be arms to keep an eye on if Webb bolts in free agency.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
- RHP Kevin Mulvey - Had an awful major-league stint last year between the Twins and D-Backs, with an 8.14 ERA, leading to him being quickly forgotten-about as a strong candidate for a rotation spot as Billy Buckner emerged near the end of last season. However, he has put up solid numbers in the high minors in the last two seasons, and possesses the proper repertoire to start in the majors, with a low-90's two-seam fastball, a slider, a curve, and the rare changeup. Had a good spring training last year with the Twins, and threw two scoreless innings in his one start with the Diamondbacks this spring, allowing just a walk and a hit. One concern is that his ERA dipped slightly from his '08 numbers at Rochester to '09 at Rochester (the Twins' AAA affiliate), so there are questions about whether or not he has much remaining ability to improve despite being one of the younger candidates.
- RHP Rodrigo Lopez - He's had himself a roller-coaster of a major-league career, from being the runner up for the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2002 to being relegated to middle relief in 2004, from TJ Surgery in 2007 to playing A-ball in 2008, and finally from recording his first win in almost two years with the Phillies last year to his new minor-league deal with the Diamondbacks. He's probably a guy I'm not giving enough credit, although his mediocre control in front of top scouts 'Skins and me last Monday wasn't beneficial to his reputation. The bottom line with this guy is that if he can return to his pre-TJ form, he'll be better than our other options, as he posted a 4.42 ERA while pitching at Coors Field in '07. Essentially, control is going to be his make-or-break tool. 4 earned runs in 4 Spring Training innings isn't helping.
- RHP Bryan Augenstein - His major-league stint with the Diamondbacks last year was certainly more impressive than Mulvey's, but he faced struggles and injuries upon being sent to Reno. Is his elbow ok? Has he had enough minor-league seasoning since his last major-league stint to actually perform significantly better? Are we setting this kid up for too much failure and dooming a potentially bright future? All of these questions surround Augenstein and make it appear as if a season at AAA-Reno is a good idea. But there is also the opinion that he pitched better than his numbers suggest in his time in the bigs last season. At the end of the day for Augenstein, though, the 6 earned runs in his 2.2 Spring Training innings will put him in Reno to start 2010.
- RHP Cesar Valdez - Probably would have been called up last year were it not for an untimely injury, and his recovery from that injury has not gone as planned. He struggled after the injury in Reno and the AFL, and has been awful so far in his 2 Spring Training innings. Definitely had his name in the mix pre-AFL, and may have even been a favorite, but appears to have worked his way out of it.
Other guys to note:
- While at the recent Spring Training game, 'Skins asked why we haven't tried to put Esmerling Vasquez back into the rotation post-labrum tear. It's an interesting point to make, especially since we appear to have one too many relief arms for the number of bullpen spots. So while it probably would take some time to get him used to throwing every fifth day, why not try Essy in the Reno rotation so we can then keep Leo Rosales, who continues to impress, on the roster? If he has acclimated himself to the role well at mid-season, perhaps he can be a guy to bring up if the other guys are struggling.
- There are a couple of guys who ended last year in the Mobile rotation who have looked impressive in their first glimpses of Spring Training. Both Barry Enright and Wes Roemer have been spotless in 3 and 3.1 innings, respectively, each giving up just one hit and two walks. Obviously it would be remarkably dumb to put a guy in the fifth spot of the rotation because of three ST innings, but looking to 2011, these might be arms to keep an eye on if Webb bolts in free agency.
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