When Miguel Montero went down with his meniscus injury in early April, just about every Diamondbacks fan accompanied their angst over Montero's six-week absence with a slight sigh of relief that Chris Snyder was still on the roster. It was well-documented that Snyder would have been dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays for first baseman Lyle Overbay were it not for Snyder failing his physical. It's worth noting that Overbay now has a triple-slash line of .184/.287/.345 for a .632 OPS, .279 wOBA, and -0.3 WAR in 25 games due to a huge spike in K-Rate and a slight dip in BB-Rate, albeit with a low BABIP of .241 (by comparison, Adam LaRoche, who was signed after the Overbay acquisition fell through, has already contributed 0.6 WAR in 21 games with only a slightly-inflated .333 BABIP).
And since Montero went down, Snyder, a guy we were once actively trying to pawn off on other teams, has performed more than admirably. With just a little help from BABIP inflation through 18 games, he's on pace to set new career highs in OBP (.357), SLG (.508), wOBA (.373), and WAR (3.3 - projected for 100 games), with those projections coming before blasting another homer and drawing two walks against the Astros Monday (as well as all stats presented later on in this article). It is largely assumed that when Montero returns, the D'backs will be free to deal Snyder to one of the many teams in need of catching help. But if the D'backs are in the thick of a Division or Wild Card hunt, why would you deal a catcher who is on-pace for a WAR total higher than his replacement's career high (Montero's 2009 WAR of 3.0), especially if that replacement is returning from an injury and was already known to be suspect defensively? The pros and cons of possibly moving Chris Snyder follow the jump.
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Pros:
- There's plenty of demand:
A quick glance at last summer's free agent spending spree on mediocre catching is indicative that there is a lack of solid catchers available to teams, and thus there is a premium on good catchers. $6MM to Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. $4.5MM to Bengie Molina (blocking Buster Posey from seeing everyday time). Heck, the first thing I wrote for the SnakePit was a FanPost detailing which teams could be interested in trading for Snyder last summer, and it was quite a lot of them. It's been well-documented here. So you have to believe that a team like the Red Sox, with a stuffed farm system and tons of assets at its disposal, would be willing to fork over a huge value for Snyder, since their catchers, Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez, are both guys who no longer belong behind the dish. Could we coax the Sox into overpaying? Probably.
- Help fix the bullpen, help replenish the farm system:
As the cries for more effective work from the bullpen continue from nearly every Diamondbacks fan, we all have to face facts at some point. Regardless of hopes that regression will occur to bring down the HR/FB rates of the 'pen, there always remains the chance that it won't regress, or that won't begin to regress quickly enough, which could continue to torpedo the season. And since, as explained above, there's likely to be teams willing to deal a large amount of assets for Snyder, we could definitely get our hands on a premier relief arm in a Snyder package. And since any position player is worth more than a relief arm, we could also replenish our horrible farm system in one fell swoop by raiding a trade partner's farm system.
- Sell high, and while you have the chance:
Snyder currently has a BABIP of .324. While this wouldn't be at all alarming for any other player, we're talking about a big Texas boy here, and he doesn't get to first all that quickly on balls in play. In fact, his career BABIP is .276. Further, his ISO is .246, with his previous career high (minimum 30 games) was .216 back in 2008. Being realistic, it's hard to imagine Snyder maintaining this level of play for a full season, not to mention the rest of his current contract.
In addition, Snyder's injury history is well-documented. But in the midst of his amazing season, I'd be willing to bet that a lot of teams would overlook that right now to help solve their short-term problems at the catcher position. But what happens if Snyder goes down again for an extended period of time? His value to us diminishes, his trade value plummets, and we're stuck with his salary on our books for the next couple years, the reason why we were so desperately trying to get rid of him last summer. Trades intrinsically involve risk, but in this case, choosing not to make a deal carries a greater-than-usual amount of risk as well.
Cons:
- Will Montero stay behind the dish?
Now, this isn't me advocating for Montero to be moved to a new position anytime soon. If you translate his 2009 UZR as a catcher into RAR (-1.0), then factor in the discrepancy between the position adjustments for catcher and third base (approx 7.5 RAR), Montero would have to be worth around six and a half runs defensively at third base to justify a move (assuming offensive stability). But it doesn't take a scientist to figure out that Miguel Montero's value as a catcher comes from his bat. And, to top it off, Montero is currently out with a knee injury. What if he returns, but can't even muster anything close to a -1.0 RAR defensively? What if a move to third base, or to first base with Mark Reynolds' growing proficiency at third, really becomes the best option for Miguel? We would be desperately in need of a starting-caliber catcher, and having one relatively cost-controlled would prevent us from having to delve into the disgusting free agent catching market.
- What to make of John Hester?
Hester debuted at the end of last year and had a relatively strong showing, with a .729 OPS and .317 wOBA combining with a neutral UZR and positional adjustments to make him worth a run above replacement in just 15 games. In the off-season, the organization's belief in Hester to be a serviceable backup was part of what led the team to shop Snyder so aggressively. But not even the heavy positional adjustments from catching has saved Hester's WAR in his short seven-game stint in the majors this year, as a .666 OPS and -1.0 UZR have left him ever so slightly below replacement level.
Don't mistake the intention of that paragraph, though. It is not to dismiss John Hester. He's made some crappy plays behind the plate to start this season, to be sure, and he also came up short a couple times against the Cubs with the bat, but making a judgment of Hester after 22 major league games in any way would be irrational. What I mean to say is that before this season, there wasn't much not to like about Hester. He was a AAA All-Star, a guy known for his defensive prowess who developed a good bat, and he had a successful cup of coffee in the big leagues. He was a cost-controlled option as a backup catcher that allowed us the chance to deal Snyder and invest that money elsewhere. But the start of this season has reminded us that we still don't know what we have in Hester, and the fantastic hitter's environment of Reno has once again cast doubt upon his AAA accomplishments (something tells me we'll have a good reason to leave Reno in a couple years...). Dealing Snyder would require utmost confidence in Hester's ability to be the full-time backup and injury-replacement starter to Montero, or even to take Montero's job if Montero cannot cut it behind the plate, as mentioned above. And at this point, it's hard to imagine us having that kind of confidence in Hester.
I think that covers most of what I wanted to say, and if there's more I can always go back and edit it a little bit. But it's clearly a situation to keep an eye on - after all, not many teams can say that they have two starting catchers, and it might not be a stretch to say that our Montero/Snyder platoon falls only behind Minnesota's Mauer/Mauer platoon in terms of production from the catcher spot.
What's that you say? You want a conclusion about what I think we should do? Hah! Darned if I know.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Hatchling Report 5/1/2010
I figured it's time for a quick update of the farm system, especially since I won't be able to post much for the next few days aside from my Sunday recap during finals, then I have just a couple days before the end of the year (which will largely be spent with LadySouthBend), and then head to Wisconsin to visit family (where there is no intarwebz), and then have a day before starting work and my fast from the SnakePit. Random note: I'll try to put what I put my writings on my personal blog (that would be here), at "The Token White Guy" in case you care to follow. Then again, I haven't received confirmation that I'll be allowed to do so. So, without any further ado, another Hatchlings report.
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AAA Reno:
Good things:
First, with the recent call-ups of Dan Stange and Kevin Mulvey, what has been largely ignored and uncovered by the news is the promotion of Josh Collmenter from Hi-A to AAA and assignment of Brad Gemberling to Hi-A from Extended Spring Training (Gemberling threw four innings and allowed two earned runs in his start for Visalia on Thursday). Collmenter made his first start for Reno tonight, and after posting a 2.40 ERA with a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 15 innings for Visalia (wonder why he jumped an extra level now?) in three starts, decided that that simply wasn't good enough. So he struck out 8 PCL hitters while walking nobody in seven shutout PCL innings in his first PCL start and throwing a measly 89 PCL pitches. Should I emphasize the fact that he did this in the PCL any more? This guy is for real. Great change-up (i.e. he's got secondary stuff that will actually allow him to be successful in upper level/the majors) and he's got the K-rates throughout the minors to show that he can definitely be a back-of-the-rotation guy for us within the next year or so, or as a September call-up guy in the 'pen. There were age concerns at Hi-A for him, but now that he's up at Reno, he's on track to possibly reach the majors in 2011.
Cesar Valdez continues to be awesome, and now has a 25:5 K:BB ratio through 23.2 innings pitched. I expect to see Valdez starting Monday in the big leagues, especially after Kevin Mulvey's suck-filled relief effort yesterday.
Jason Urquidez has a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings pitched with a 17:3 K:BB ratio and no homers allowed. If Kroenke continues sucking, expect Urquidez to take his spot on the 40-man Roster and find himself in the porous D'backs' bullpen at some point this year, perhaps very quickly.
Despite not being mentioned as a rotation possibility in the majors, likely because he started at Mobile, Matt Torra currently leads the Reno rotation with his ERA of 3.32 through three starts, and his FIP is even lower, at 2.99, though a really low HR/FB rate is certainly helping him.
Pedro Ciriaco has been pretty bad since his return to Reno. At least that's the original prognosis upon observing his miserable .184 batting average. However, he has just 6 K's in 38 ABs to go with a walk (a solid ratio considering we're talking about Pedro Ciriaco here...), to go with two homers, a triple, a double, and two stolen bases (0 CS) in nine games. That means a BABIP of .167. If his BABIP were, say, .300, he'd be batting .289 with a .308 OBP and .526 SLG (.834 OPS). From a guy I've heard described as a "defensive wizard" at shortstop, that's pretty nice. Are the power numbers sustainable? Probably not. But the same can be said about that awful BABIP, so you have to take the inevitability of regression as good news for the kid.
Jeff Bailey still has an OPS of 1.006. Doug Deeds has an OPS of .862. Brandon Allen is 5-for-his-last-10, with three doubles, 2 BB's and just 2 K's.
Bad things:
What in the world has happened to Clay Zavada? Something about his recent injury completely torched his control, as he threw 34 pitches tonight and only 16 were strikes. Fewer than half of his pitches were strikes. There's a reason that a 2/3-inning, two-run performance kept his ERA at a steady 27.00. He's just been plain awful this year, both before and since his return. I root for the guy and love him for his energy, but he's really gotta find the strike zone before he can be considered for the big leagues again.
Mark Hallberg is batting .162 in his last 10 games, though a BABIP of .207 isn't helping. He's also playing sterling defense, so there's hope for him to have a good season, but he needs to be getting hits to be anything more than a poor man's Augie Ojeda since he supplies no power and little patience, which limit him to a .532 OPS, third-worst amongst the Aces.
After a promising six-inning, three-run outing in which he only allowed one walk and didn't allow a home run, Bryan Augenstein returned to awfulness last Monday, coughing up six earned runs in five innings, allowing a homer and walking three while striking out five. He now has a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 innings pitched with a 16:9 K:BB ratio and three homers allowed. He really isn't fooling anyone in the PCL, and would probably be well-served with a demotion to Mobile, especially if Kris Benson comes back and Kevin Mulvey returns to the Reno rotation (with there being little chance of Josh Collmenter being sent back to Visalia). UPDATE: Augenstein started in place of Cesar Valdez on Saturday, and coughed up six earned runs in five innings. Augenstein needs to return to AA to find himself (and it's not like Wes Roemer needs more time wallowing at Mobile).
Zach Kroenke still is awful, with a 9.53 ERA in 11.1 innings. Even his only seemingly-decent outing, his only start of the season, saw him give up two unearned runs on top of one earned run in three innings. In fact, Kroenke's only had one clean outing so far this season, back on April 9, and has since largely been relegated to mop-up long relief work. Just how bad are his numbers? His K:BB ratio in those 11.1 innings is 4:5. No, that's not backwards. He's also served up a homer to give him an FIP of 5.00. Not nearly as bad as his ERA, of course, but when you walk guys as often as Kroenke has and refuse to strike guys out as Kroenke has, you pretty much are going to get what you deserve.
It looks like Jordan Norberto may not be ready for AAA either. He's walked two in 1.2 innings (spanning three appearances), giving up two earned runs, albeit with three strikeouts. It also looks like he's basically their designated LOOGY, which seems rather odd considering that he wasn't relegated to that role in the big leagues.
AA Mobile:
Good things:
After a mediocre six-inning, four-run start last Saturday in which he served up three homers, Wes Roemer threw himself an absolute gem on Thursday, with a complete game, nine-strikeout, five-hit, no-walk shutout of Carolina. Yes, Carolina sucks and was in the middle of an 11-game losing streak, but it's impressive nonetheless. Roemer has a shiny 2.00 ERA in 36.00 innings with a 25:3 K:BB ratio (and you thought Cesar Valdez's was good - hah!), and were Collmenter not needed to start last night, Roemer would have been the guy promoted to Reno. Unfortunately for Roemer, it seems that Collmenter could actually stick in AAA, though Roemer could still be moved up if Bryan Augenstein continues failing.
Bryan Henry (13.0 IP, 13:4 K:BB, 0 HR, 1.38 ERA) and Roque Mercedes (10.1 IP, 12:6 K:BB, 1 HR, 2.61 ERA) have both been really effective out of Mobile's 'pen. Though Henry has been slightly better and less walk-prone than Mercedes, expect to see Mercedes possibly called up to the majors first if we are in dire need of an arm, as he's already on the 40-Man Roster.
Bad things:
Pat McAnaney actually improved upon his metrics from his five-inning, two-run start on April 21 (3:5 K:BB ratio, 0 HR) with a 5:2 K:BB ratio through just 3.1 innings, but yet mysteriously gave up ten hits and four earned runs to earn the loss on April 26. This appears to be remarkably flukey, but at two stops his ERA now stands at a rather gloomy 6.43, with way too many walks allowed (10 in 19 innings).
Walks finally caught up to Leyson Septimo again, as he gave out three free passes and two hits in a five-run, four-out relief appearance yesterday, and spiking his ERA to 5.40. Good news is that his GO/AO ratio is still 3.0 and he still hasn't given up a home run. In other words, I'm still more confident in Septimo being useful this season than Zach Kroenke or Jordan Norberto.
Collin Cowgill has a .529 OPS in his last ten games, though it has come with a .172 BABIP over that span. Also, Konrad Schmidt has a .628 OPS in his last ten games, and without a crappy BABIP (.314).
Hi-A Visalia:
Good things:
Bryan Woodall continues to be untouchable at Visalia, having now thrown 11 shutout innings in eight appearances, striking out 14, allowing just two walks and three hits, and boasting a ridiculous 5.00 GO/AO ratio. Expect to see him in Mobile very quickly, especially if relief arms start flying around different levels in the midst of a nuclear bullpen explosion.
But Woodall's success is also aided by the fact that he doesn't have to face Marc Krauss, who is thankfully on his team. Krauss has been ludicrous this year, now boasting a 1.059 OPS in 20 games. He has a decent 18:11 K:BB ratio, and three doubles, two triples, and four homers amongst 25 hits in 71 at-bats. In other words, absurdity.
Prior to an 0-4 night last night, Ryan Wheeler had been on a slight tear himself, going 12-for-36 in his previous nine games with three doubles, a homer, and a 6:2 K:BB ratio (.368/.500/.868 OBP/SLG/OPS). He's not been as remarkable as Krauss, but he's definitely held his own after what basically amounted to a two-level jump, having played in only 8 regular-season games for South Bend last year.
Bad things:
Wade Miley only technically gave up one earned run in his 5.2-inning start last night, but nonetheless has a fairly poor outing. He gave up three more unearned runs, and had a 2:4 K:BB ratio, continuing on a pair of disturbing trends of unearned runs and his walks exceeding his strikeouts thus far at Visalia. He has now allowed seven unearned runs to go with eight earned runs, and his overall K:BB ratio stands at 10:14. In fact, he's only had one outing where he didn't give up any unearned runs, which also was his worst outing of the season, a five-inning, six-run suck-fest on April 13, AND just one outing where he had more strikeouts than walks, a 2:1 ratio in a five-inning start April 25. If you're looking for a piece of good news with Miley, he does have a 2.53 GO/AO ratio.
Paul Goldschmidt's sizzling start has come to a screeching halt in his last ten games, in which he has put up a miserable OPS of .293, with four hits (including two doubles) in 40 at-bats, including 14 strikeouts with just two walks. Now, 4 hits in 26 balls put in play is not going to keep happening, but the K:BB rate over this stretch would still naturally lead to some lesser degree of terribleness.
Mid-A South Bend:
Good things:
The rotation: It's really really late at night and I want to be efficient, plus lumping their stats together looks awesome and intimidating. In 113.2 innings, they have a 100:28 K:BB ratio, have allowed 101 hits, 6 home runs, and just 35 earned runs (and 11 unearned runs) for an ERA of 2.77. Yes, 2.77. The '09 draft is looking really good.
And it's not just the arms, either. Keon Broxton has been red-hot lately, with a .951 OPS in his last ten games after a slow start, including two doubles, three triples, a homer, and, perhaps most encouraging, five walks. Bobby Borchering has joined Broxton in the slug-fest, with a .934 OPS in his last ten.
Bad things:
Matt Davidson has been red-hot lately, with a 1.139 OPS in his last ten games. So why on earth is he amongst the bad things? Well, it's because it's largely BABIP-driven (.467), as he has a pathetic 21:1 K:BB ratio so far.
Bobby Stone still sucks. .524 OPS overall, .576 OPS in his last ten. The kid needs to figure some stuff out.
Sorry if this tailed off near the end, it's super late (keep in mind the time zone changes...). I hear birds outside. Not going to bother with a legitimate conclusion. 'Night everyone.
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AAA Reno:
Good things:
First, with the recent call-ups of Dan Stange and Kevin Mulvey, what has been largely ignored and uncovered by the news is the promotion of Josh Collmenter from Hi-A to AAA and assignment of Brad Gemberling to Hi-A from Extended Spring Training (Gemberling threw four innings and allowed two earned runs in his start for Visalia on Thursday). Collmenter made his first start for Reno tonight, and after posting a 2.40 ERA with a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 15 innings for Visalia (wonder why he jumped an extra level now?) in three starts, decided that that simply wasn't good enough. So he struck out 8 PCL hitters while walking nobody in seven shutout PCL innings in his first PCL start and throwing a measly 89 PCL pitches. Should I emphasize the fact that he did this in the PCL any more? This guy is for real. Great change-up (i.e. he's got secondary stuff that will actually allow him to be successful in upper level/the majors) and he's got the K-rates throughout the minors to show that he can definitely be a back-of-the-rotation guy for us within the next year or so, or as a September call-up guy in the 'pen. There were age concerns at Hi-A for him, but now that he's up at Reno, he's on track to possibly reach the majors in 2011.
Cesar Valdez continues to be awesome, and now has a 25:5 K:BB ratio through 23.2 innings pitched. I expect to see Valdez starting Monday in the big leagues, especially after Kevin Mulvey's suck-filled relief effort yesterday.
Jason Urquidez has a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings pitched with a 17:3 K:BB ratio and no homers allowed. If Kroenke continues sucking, expect Urquidez to take his spot on the 40-man Roster and find himself in the porous D'backs' bullpen at some point this year, perhaps very quickly.
Despite not being mentioned as a rotation possibility in the majors, likely because he started at Mobile, Matt Torra currently leads the Reno rotation with his ERA of 3.32 through three starts, and his FIP is even lower, at 2.99, though a really low HR/FB rate is certainly helping him.
Pedro Ciriaco has been pretty bad since his return to Reno. At least that's the original prognosis upon observing his miserable .184 batting average. However, he has just 6 K's in 38 ABs to go with a walk (a solid ratio considering we're talking about Pedro Ciriaco here...), to go with two homers, a triple, a double, and two stolen bases (0 CS) in nine games. That means a BABIP of .167. If his BABIP were, say, .300, he'd be batting .289 with a .308 OBP and .526 SLG (.834 OPS). From a guy I've heard described as a "defensive wizard" at shortstop, that's pretty nice. Are the power numbers sustainable? Probably not. But the same can be said about that awful BABIP, so you have to take the inevitability of regression as good news for the kid.
Jeff Bailey still has an OPS of 1.006. Doug Deeds has an OPS of .862. Brandon Allen is 5-for-his-last-10, with three doubles, 2 BB's and just 2 K's.
Bad things:
What in the world has happened to Clay Zavada? Something about his recent injury completely torched his control, as he threw 34 pitches tonight and only 16 were strikes. Fewer than half of his pitches were strikes. There's a reason that a 2/3-inning, two-run performance kept his ERA at a steady 27.00. He's just been plain awful this year, both before and since his return. I root for the guy and love him for his energy, but he's really gotta find the strike zone before he can be considered for the big leagues again.
Mark Hallberg is batting .162 in his last 10 games, though a BABIP of .207 isn't helping. He's also playing sterling defense, so there's hope for him to have a good season, but he needs to be getting hits to be anything more than a poor man's Augie Ojeda since he supplies no power and little patience, which limit him to a .532 OPS, third-worst amongst the Aces.
After a promising six-inning, three-run outing in which he only allowed one walk and didn't allow a home run, Bryan Augenstein returned to awfulness last Monday, coughing up six earned runs in five innings, allowing a homer and walking three while striking out five. He now has a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 innings pitched with a 16:9 K:BB ratio and three homers allowed. He really isn't fooling anyone in the PCL, and would probably be well-served with a demotion to Mobile, especially if Kris Benson comes back and Kevin Mulvey returns to the Reno rotation (with there being little chance of Josh Collmenter being sent back to Visalia). UPDATE: Augenstein started in place of Cesar Valdez on Saturday, and coughed up six earned runs in five innings. Augenstein needs to return to AA to find himself (and it's not like Wes Roemer needs more time wallowing at Mobile).
Zach Kroenke still is awful, with a 9.53 ERA in 11.1 innings. Even his only seemingly-decent outing, his only start of the season, saw him give up two unearned runs on top of one earned run in three innings. In fact, Kroenke's only had one clean outing so far this season, back on April 9, and has since largely been relegated to mop-up long relief work. Just how bad are his numbers? His K:BB ratio in those 11.1 innings is 4:5. No, that's not backwards. He's also served up a homer to give him an FIP of 5.00. Not nearly as bad as his ERA, of course, but when you walk guys as often as Kroenke has and refuse to strike guys out as Kroenke has, you pretty much are going to get what you deserve.
It looks like Jordan Norberto may not be ready for AAA either. He's walked two in 1.2 innings (spanning three appearances), giving up two earned runs, albeit with three strikeouts. It also looks like he's basically their designated LOOGY, which seems rather odd considering that he wasn't relegated to that role in the big leagues.
AA Mobile:
Good things:
After a mediocre six-inning, four-run start last Saturday in which he served up three homers, Wes Roemer threw himself an absolute gem on Thursday, with a complete game, nine-strikeout, five-hit, no-walk shutout of Carolina. Yes, Carolina sucks and was in the middle of an 11-game losing streak, but it's impressive nonetheless. Roemer has a shiny 2.00 ERA in 36.00 innings with a 25:3 K:BB ratio (and you thought Cesar Valdez's was good - hah!), and were Collmenter not needed to start last night, Roemer would have been the guy promoted to Reno. Unfortunately for Roemer, it seems that Collmenter could actually stick in AAA, though Roemer could still be moved up if Bryan Augenstein continues failing.
Bryan Henry (13.0 IP, 13:4 K:BB, 0 HR, 1.38 ERA) and Roque Mercedes (10.1 IP, 12:6 K:BB, 1 HR, 2.61 ERA) have both been really effective out of Mobile's 'pen. Though Henry has been slightly better and less walk-prone than Mercedes, expect to see Mercedes possibly called up to the majors first if we are in dire need of an arm, as he's already on the 40-Man Roster.
Bad things:
Pat McAnaney actually improved upon his metrics from his five-inning, two-run start on April 21 (3:5 K:BB ratio, 0 HR) with a 5:2 K:BB ratio through just 3.1 innings, but yet mysteriously gave up ten hits and four earned runs to earn the loss on April 26. This appears to be remarkably flukey, but at two stops his ERA now stands at a rather gloomy 6.43, with way too many walks allowed (10 in 19 innings).
Walks finally caught up to Leyson Septimo again, as he gave out three free passes and two hits in a five-run, four-out relief appearance yesterday, and spiking his ERA to 5.40. Good news is that his GO/AO ratio is still 3.0 and he still hasn't given up a home run. In other words, I'm still more confident in Septimo being useful this season than Zach Kroenke or Jordan Norberto.
Collin Cowgill has a .529 OPS in his last ten games, though it has come with a .172 BABIP over that span. Also, Konrad Schmidt has a .628 OPS in his last ten games, and without a crappy BABIP (.314).
Hi-A Visalia:
Good things:
Bryan Woodall continues to be untouchable at Visalia, having now thrown 11 shutout innings in eight appearances, striking out 14, allowing just two walks and three hits, and boasting a ridiculous 5.00 GO/AO ratio. Expect to see him in Mobile very quickly, especially if relief arms start flying around different levels in the midst of a nuclear bullpen explosion.
But Woodall's success is also aided by the fact that he doesn't have to face Marc Krauss, who is thankfully on his team. Krauss has been ludicrous this year, now boasting a 1.059 OPS in 20 games. He has a decent 18:11 K:BB ratio, and three doubles, two triples, and four homers amongst 25 hits in 71 at-bats. In other words, absurdity.
Prior to an 0-4 night last night, Ryan Wheeler had been on a slight tear himself, going 12-for-36 in his previous nine games with three doubles, a homer, and a 6:2 K:BB ratio (.368/.500/.868 OBP/SLG/OPS). He's not been as remarkable as Krauss, but he's definitely held his own after what basically amounted to a two-level jump, having played in only 8 regular-season games for South Bend last year.
Bad things:
Wade Miley only technically gave up one earned run in his 5.2-inning start last night, but nonetheless has a fairly poor outing. He gave up three more unearned runs, and had a 2:4 K:BB ratio, continuing on a pair of disturbing trends of unearned runs and his walks exceeding his strikeouts thus far at Visalia. He has now allowed seven unearned runs to go with eight earned runs, and his overall K:BB ratio stands at 10:14. In fact, he's only had one outing where he didn't give up any unearned runs, which also was his worst outing of the season, a five-inning, six-run suck-fest on April 13, AND just one outing where he had more strikeouts than walks, a 2:1 ratio in a five-inning start April 25. If you're looking for a piece of good news with Miley, he does have a 2.53 GO/AO ratio.
Paul Goldschmidt's sizzling start has come to a screeching halt in his last ten games, in which he has put up a miserable OPS of .293, with four hits (including two doubles) in 40 at-bats, including 14 strikeouts with just two walks. Now, 4 hits in 26 balls put in play is not going to keep happening, but the K:BB rate over this stretch would still naturally lead to some lesser degree of terribleness.
Mid-A South Bend:
Good things:
The rotation: It's really really late at night and I want to be efficient, plus lumping their stats together looks awesome and intimidating. In 113.2 innings, they have a 100:28 K:BB ratio, have allowed 101 hits, 6 home runs, and just 35 earned runs (and 11 unearned runs) for an ERA of 2.77. Yes, 2.77. The '09 draft is looking really good.
And it's not just the arms, either. Keon Broxton has been red-hot lately, with a .951 OPS in his last ten games after a slow start, including two doubles, three triples, a homer, and, perhaps most encouraging, five walks. Bobby Borchering has joined Broxton in the slug-fest, with a .934 OPS in his last ten.
Bad things:
Matt Davidson has been red-hot lately, with a 1.139 OPS in his last ten games. So why on earth is he amongst the bad things? Well, it's because it's largely BABIP-driven (.467), as he has a pathetic 21:1 K:BB ratio so far.
Bobby Stone still sucks. .524 OPS overall, .576 OPS in his last ten. The kid needs to figure some stuff out.
Sorry if this tailed off near the end, it's super late (keep in mind the time zone changes...). I hear birds outside. Not going to bother with a legitimate conclusion. 'Night everyone.
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