This is my first practice in making a top-prospect list, and it was certainly an experience. The biggest thing I struggled to deal was how to rate a prospect who perhaps was near the top of the list last year, but had a mediocre year in '09 in relation to some of the newer kids just taken that have had fewer years in the system, and hence fewer challenges to the majors, especially with a class of kids from the '09 draft who haven't proven much in professional baseball yet, but who many are already trying to crown as the top prospects in the system. As an example, Mark Hallberg was a guy who was rated in the top-10 amongst D-Backs prospects prior to this season, but he absolutely tanked in '09 at Mobile, and he isn't on this list at all.
So, after a few weeks and a few major changes to the list, I think I wound up with a pretty solid compilation, although certainly the difference in a slot or two should not be nit-picked (please :-P). Admittedly, the publishing of a few top-prospects lists by the likes of BA and a few other independent sources has been extremely helpful to me, but at the same time I tried to keep my own opinions deeply ingrained in this piece, especially with regard to a couple of guys who I'm not especially high on despite being against the popular consensus. Another thing to point out - a lot of my analysis comes from statistics, with just a little bit of scouting research done to try to keep a little semblance of balance. But I'll be the first to admit that I haven't personally scouted any of these guys, although I hope to get the chance to when the South Bend season starts next spring.
IHSB's Top-40 Diamondbacks' Prospects List:
1) RHP Jarrod Parker - Depressing as it is to see a guy who is the consensus #1 prospect in the organization prior to '09 need TJ surgery, the year could have gone much worse for Parker. Parker absolutely dominated the two levels he pitched at, and when he finishes his rehabbing from the surgery, he will be put in Reno in short order, likely around age 22, which is still young for that level. One site I've read said that at one point in the season they felt that Parker was the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. That's ahead of Matusz, Bumgarner, everybody. And, thankfully, this type of surgery is no longer a reason for plummeting a kid with that kind of stuff's value too far down.
The biggest concern for me is if all that stress on his 6'0'' frame from throwing 96 MPH leads to further injury. It'll be remarkably interesting to see what kind of form Parker returns to once he has rehabbed. Some guys come back with their velocity shot, others come back with extra velocity (which would be an absolute treat to see). It just depends on how he adjusts to the feel of the new ligament, and how quickly he can get used to it and make any adjustments to his delivery if necessary in order to regain his command, which has already been Parker's biggest obstacle in the minors. Parker still is one of just a handful of arm prospects in baseball who has #1 ace potential, keeping him at the top of the list for me, although by a slimmer margin than many would imagine.
2) 1B Brandon Allen - Allen is technically still a prospect, and even though his major-league debut wasn't marvelously impressive, his minor-league numbers made the gap between him and Parker a lot smaller than many would think. Heck, during that "unimpressive" time in the majors, the guy still showed us that he has some legit major-league pop in his bat and some shockingly-good glovework and footwork at 1B. It's a matter of figuring it out how not to strike out for this kid, and given his young age (he will be 24 all next year), I'm of the mindset that there's a good chance that he can, with a 30-HR ceiling as a great possible reward for our patience. The only issue is that he's stuck at the top power position defensively, but he has the offensive ability to be an everyday player there.
3) 3B/1B Bobby Borchering - Borchering is young and raw, but he has immense power potential and the ability to become an all-time-great hitter. Everyone has heard the standard Chipper Jones comparison, although Borchering is less apt defensively, but has greater power potential than what Chipper has demonstrated in his career. If he can work on his defense to the point where it's definitely passable at third in the majors, his value spikes and he's one of the best prospects in baseball. A good first full-season in the minors next year would make him a #1-quality prospect in the #2 position on the D-Backs list, with Allen likely to lose prospect status and Parker still holding down the #1 spot with his ace potential and a more advanced level (since it would take about 30 knee-blowouts in the upper levels for Borchering to reach AAA in '10).
4) OF Cole Gillespie - The biggest concern for me about Cole Gillespie is the fact that his big numbers outbreak came once he arrived in Reno. A few things that help to ease some of my concerns are the fact that a lot of his value comes in walk rate, something that Reno does not too dramatically affect, the fact that some of his jump was due to some BABIP regression from the beginning of the season to the end of the season, and the fact that he has continued to put up great numbers in the Arizona Fall League against some good pitching, the only guy amongst the D-Backs' AFL participants to really stand out, with Tom Layne putting up the second-most-impressive AFL stint. Should make the Opening Day Roster, especially now that two of the guys he was competing with for that spot, Trent Oeltjen and Alex Romero, are now in the Brewers' system the Astros' system, respectively.
Further, Eric Byrnes' sunk cost should not be too much of an obstacle in the way of Gillespie's path to the majors, especially if we can deal him for a fringe prospect or two by eating most of that huge salary to clear the way for a 5th OF upgrade with some long-term upside, as opposed to the Randy Winn rumblings, which would be a move with no long-term upside. If the team does decide to go out and get Winn, though, I don't see where Gillespie fits until 2011, which would be an absolute shame considering he was ranked by Scout.com as the 107th best prospect in baseball before his great 2009 season. A comparison I've made is a Conor Jackson-type, someone who will get on base a lot, although probably with less power, but better defense in left field.
5) 1B Ryan Wheeler - An absolutely remarkable season, and I guy who I'm insanely high on. This is a kid who turned 21 mid-season, and held OPS's of .999 in Low-A and 1.024 in Mid-A. An absolutely legitimate power bat at first-base, and looks like a guy who will absolutely blast through Visalia, if the organization even bothers to assign him there. Frankly, I'd rather they just skip the unnecessary stop and throw him into the fire at AA to start the season. It's odd thinking that a guy we just drafted as a rookie with the 156th pick, in the fifth round, in '09 (and a fairly young one at that, 20/21 isn't typically a polished college star at that draft slot) could start 2010 as Mobile's everyday first-baseman, but he deserves it, as the other option, now that Ryne White (who didn't really deserve a promotion to AA anyways) is out of the way, are the incumbents Bryan Byrne, who will be 26 next season and is an organizational-depth guy at this point after proving he couldn't hit PCL pitching, leading to a re-demotion to AA, and Sean Coughlin, who will be put in Reno after an injury-shortened but great season at Visalia and Mobile. I've heard some suggesting that he'll be put at South Bend, but Wheeler is too advanced a hitter and has amazing strike-zone discipline. If anybody in the system is ready to be pushed aggresively through the system, it's Wheeler. Leads to a really interesting question as to what the FO will do with Allen and Wheeler once Wheeler is major-league ready if Allen has established himself as an everyday major-league first-baseman.
6) LHP Michael Belfiore - An absolutely dominant year vaulted Belfiore above three guys drafted ahead of him - A.J. Pollock, Matt Davidson, and Chris Owings - on my list. The guy showed that he has the stuff to be an absolute monster, and can legitimately start. Really looking forward to seeing both where the organization puts him (I'm thinking Mid-A with the potential for a mid-season call-up, as a straight assignment to the hitter-friendly Cal League scares me, and Yakima would be pointless), and how he is able to fare next season against more advanced hitters. Also played 1B for Boston College, so he has the potential to be yet another good-hitting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, although he isn't going to light up Chase Field's outfield bleachers like Micah Owings.
7) CF A.J. Pollock - A lackluster first season for the polished Notre Dame product (Go Irish!) slid him down the rankings a little bit, but his defensive ability in center field and his ability to make contact, having just been ranked both the top hitter for contact and the best outfield defender in the D-Backs system by BA, keep him in my top-10. The fact that he played well enough to earn himself a likely promotion to Hi-A to start next season means he doesn't plummet (see - Matt Davidson), as he won't be stuck repeating a level to start 2010. Already polished in terms of limiting his strikeouts, but could stand to up his walk rate. He has the skills already, but for some reason he just didn't demonstrate them consistently in South Bend. If he can in Visalia, a well-known hitter's league, he could find himself vying for a mid-season promotion to Mobile to set himself up to start 2011 at Reno and much higher on this list.
8) SS/2B Chris Owings - Owings is a guy with the potential to be an impact middle-infielder with the bat, which lands him comfortably within my top-10. The biggest question for me is if his defense can stick at shortstop, one of the most demanding defensive positions. If he moves to second-base, his bat isn't quite as valuable. But with a great Instructional League showing according to "top-scout" Conor Jackson, it'll be interesting to see what Owings will be able to do next season, at South Bend and perhaps at Visalia around mid-season. The defense is an issue, and if I felt it was a certainty that could definitely stay at short he would be rated higher, but nonetheless he remains a great prospect. One concern I've heard voiced about Owings, though, is that even though he is solid across the board in terms of tools, he doesn't have any skills that stand out as plus.
9) OF Collin Cowgill - Another solid season for the small man with large power, this year in Visalia, merited both an invite to the Arizona Fall League and his almost guaranteed placement in Mobile for next season at age 24. A guy who does everything - gets on base, hits for power, even has speed on the basepaths (11 SB: 4 CS). But there are certainly questions, beginning with the overload of major-league OFs, or minor-league OFs who are ahead of Cowgill in the system. EByrnes will be out of Arizona in 2011, but the Snakes will still have Co-Jack, Parra, Gillespie, Upton, and CY as major-league-caliber OFs in 2011, with Cowgill expected either late 2011 or 2012.
Also, Cowgill is making a transition that has crushed many a top Diamondbacks prospect before, from having a good, but not great, season at Hi-A in hitter-friendly confines to the pitcher-friendly Southern League. As Mark Hallberg will attest, the Hi-A-to-AA jump is difficult as is, considered the most difficult outside of AAA-MLB, and the nature of the leagues isn't helping anybody either. A final, perhaps more serious, concern is that Cowgill appears to either be a poor defensive CF with a good bat, or a good defensive corner OF with a poor bat. These concerns seem to make Cowgill more apt in a 4th OF role, albeit a darned good and extremely versatile 4th OF, rather than an everyday OF, unless he can really improve upon last season's numbers next year at AA.
10) RHP Bryan Augenstein - Both additions to lower-level organizational depth and injuries combined to ruin what looked like a year in which Augenstein would jump into the top-5 of the D-Backs' prospect rankings after some absolutely bogus AA production, and at the young age of 22 years old. But Augenstein has always had some injury risk with his throwing motion and the stress it puts on his elbow, and the fact that these issues are already cropping up is certainly concerning for his future, causing him to slide down the rankings (he would be fifth or sixth otherwise). He's probably the second-choice candidate for the #5 rotation spot, and I could imagine Augenstein, Rodrigo Lopez, or perhaps a major-league bullpen guy like Aaron Heilman or Esmerling Vasquez being the designated injury fill-in in 2010. Still has the best command in the system, and gets some good sinking motion on his fastball.
11) RHP Wes Roemer - Displayed his dominance over the California League, no small feat considering its hitter-friendly nature, early in the season and earned a promotion to Mobile, where he put up a solid season for the BayBears. Had an ERA just over 4, which was as good as any of the other arms in the BayBears rotation not named Augenstein or Parker. Has a slider that will get major-league hitters out with a little more polish and a few more years of experience. He also is young, as he will be 23 for all of next season. I hear incessantly about guys like Belfiore and all of the young first-round picks from the '09 draft, but yet very little about Roemer, a sandwich-round pick from just a couple years back who hasn't faltered in his development.
12) LHP Tom Layne - Tom Layne began the season near the bottom end of the Diamondbacks' top-50 lists, but absolutely dazzled during his time in Visalia, both as a starter and in relief, leading up to his promotion to AA-Mobile to fill a rotation spot after Jarrod Parker was shut down. He just wrapped up his stint in the AFL playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, and if you remove one bad outing from Layne's AFL stint, he threw 12.1 innings and allowed just two runs, for a 1.46 ERA. However, that one bad outing saw him get just one out and allow just 5 earned runs, shooting up his overall AFL ERA to 4.97. Still a solid stint, in my opinion the second-best amongst the D-Backs at the AFL, and it positioned him to start next season either in the suddenly-empty rotation at Mobile, and provides an option for the Reno rotation or bullpen if needed due to injuries either at AAA or in the majors. Also is left-handed, the importance of which is emphasized by the fact that every candidate for the D-Backs' 2010 rotation throws right handed (Haren, Webb, Jackson, Kennedy, Buckner, Augenstein, Mulvey, and Valdez are all RHP's).
13) 1B/C Sean Coughlin - A guy that I almost completely neglected until the D-Backs affiliate of Scout.com recently named him their 2009 D-Backs Organizational Hitter of the Year (although picking Coughlin over Wheeler was still a minor travesty). He flew under the radar a bit because he broke his hand after just 77 games this year, 27 at Visalia and 50 at Mobile, and because his stint at Visalia wasn't all that special, as he posted just a .776 OPS in a hitter's league. However, upon his promotion to Mobile, Coughlin exploded, seeing his OBP shoot up 99 points, and his slugging 42 points, for a .917 OPS. He only played 17 of his games as a catcher, indicating that his defense there wasn't exactly impressive, with the rest at 1B or DH, where that type of production is expected, but the production was encouraging enough that the team felt comfortable in letting Josh Whitesell become a free agent.
Also, even though Coughlin hits left-handed, he carried a 1.038 OPS against left-handed pitching in his 48 AA PAs against lefties. If this proves to be a trend beyond this small sample, he could hypothetically (lots of emphasis here) come up to platoon with Allen if he continues his explosion at Reno and Allen is struggling with left-handed pitching. Unlikely, but a possibility if the FO cannot reign in a free-agent RHB to platoon at 1B like Tatis or Garko, or in case of injury to part of the major-league 1B battery. If he can be passable at catcher defensively, his value spikes, because of how likely it is that Ryan Wheeler will eventually surpass Coughlin offensively, and just how soon that may occur.
14) CF Ollie Linton - Ollie Linton is precisely the type of player that fans love to watch play. He's a prototypical leadoff hitter who is great at drawing walks, with a BA of .295 and OBP of .394 last year at Visalia to demonstrate this. He plays fantastic defense in center field, perhaps the best outfield defense in the system, stole 28 bases last year, and even has some pop, slugging .399, with 28 doubles, 10 triples, and a homer amongst his 145 hits. His great season and Evan Frey's return to mediocrity resulted in Linton dramatically overtaking Frey as the best leadoff-hitter prospect the Diamondbacks have, and perhaps has set Linton up to contend with A.J. Pollock to be the eventual heir apparent to Chris Young. Even though most will tell you that Pollock is the guy who is going to take over that position come 2013, don't be shocked if Linton is there and Pollock winds up as a 4th OF that year. Probably a guy I'm a little over-high on, but his numbers, especially in getting on-base, make him look to me like a possible Chone Figgins-type offensive producer with great defense in center.
15) OF Marc Krauss - I think people putting him in the top-10 on their lists are a little over their heads, although they appear to be the vast majority. IMO, they are particularly under-valuing defense, especially for an NL club like Arizona that builds its success around pitching (and maybe I'm taking Krauss' system misfit too much into account). Krauss likely is a 1B or DH, unless whatever team has him is ok with his bat's value being diminished by his outfield butchery, a la Adam Dunn. The power in his bat is certainly legitimate, and qualms about how Krauss would deal with the transition from aluminum bats and crappy MAC pitching to wood bats and professional pitching appear to have been completely suppressed.
However, teams like Seattle (let the record show I love Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, despite the fact that when he left his position as Milwaukee's Scouting Director, he left the Brewers with no decent upper-level pitching prospects) are starting to show just how important and valuable defense is, and Krauss' defense is awful. For comparison's sake, Linton, rated just ahead of Krauss, put up an OPS approaching .800 at a higher level and is a plus defender in CF, a very demanding defensive position where offense comes second, while Krauss put up an .855 OPS a level below while playing awful defense in RF, a much less demanding defensive position where you need to have a good bat to have value. Krauss was 21, compared to Linton's 23, but the differences in value are pretty apparent to me, at least.
16) 3B/1B Matt Davidson - Yes, he just put up an abysmal season in Low-A, and has fallen behind a plethora of other guys in the system, even a ton of guys picked this year, but there's only so far down you can list a guy like Davidson, given he was picked in the 1/2 Sandwich Round and was 18-years-old for all of last season, making him still young for his level. We wanted to see more, but the power potential in Davidson's bat is still there, and it's still real. Limited to the power positions defensively, and of the two will more than likely be at 1B, but he has the capability to put up everyday power totals at that position. If he can demonstrate his real potential next year in his first full-season of professional baseball, and he'd better hope he does with Wheeler and Goldschmidt having climbed above him in the system and Wheeler already looking like he has a brighter future than Davidson IMO, you can rest assured he'll be a top-10 guy next season, but for now I couldn't justify ranking him above too many people who have already proven more than Davidson in the system.
17) RHP Kevin Mulvey - Supposedly major-league ready at the time we acquired him from the Twins, but while Billy Buckner demonstrated this fact clearly in his time at the end of the season, Mulvey pitched poorly. Acquired for Jon Rauch at the deadline, Mulvey didn't show anything to suggest that the team should rely on him for a rotation spot next season, leaving the team in a quandary for whether or not anybody other than perhaps Bryan Augenstein can be counted on for emergency starting duties next season, and leading to the team going out and getting guys like Rodrigo Lopez for extra fifth starter options. Needs to have a great start at AAA to possibly merit a mid-season call-up to fill in for a rotation injury or an unexpected Buckner suck demonstration. He is going to be 25 next season, so time is starting to run out if he's going to wind up starting in the majors.
I see Mulvey as a guy who, if he can't pull off an upset and clinch the fifth rotation spot, is someone the organization might want to take a look at trying to put into the 'pen, basically having him amp up his fastball velocity and keep his best secondary-pitch, his slider, while dumping his change completely and occasionally flashing his curve in long relief to keep hitters off-balance. It would allow the FO to guarantee some major-league value from Mulvey, with the odds of him starting getting slimmer and slimmer. I see middle relief as his floor, and as something he could do in the majors as soon as next year, so, despite his low ceiling and equally low chance of reaching that ceiling, he doesn't fall too far after being a top-10 Twins prospect after the '08 season.
18) RHP Trevor Harden - In his second professional season at just age 21, he very quickly demonstrated in six starts that he was better than the Midwest League, and fared well in the hitter-friendly California League, although he did see a noticeable drop in his metrics. Should be in Mobile to start next season at just 22 years old with much of the AA rotation graduating to AAA (Augenstein, Torra, possibly Enright and/or Roemer mid-season). Also, he doesn't have an injury history, and possesses an effortless delivery and throwing motion according to scouting reports. Throws 93 MPH, and racked up K's in his brief stint at SB, as he has for most of his career. One of our higher-upside starting arms.
19) SS/2B Pedro Ciriaco - I've been talking up Ciriaco as a top-10 guy for a while after he put up good numbers for a defense-oriented shortstop at AA, but as I've been checking up on his winter-league stats from time to time, I've flip-flopped more than John Kerry, from wanting to jam forks in my eyes to wanting to put Ciriaco back in the top-10. Ciriaco originally started hot at the AFL, causing me to start spouting torrents of man-spunk (sorry for that mental image, everbody, especially the ladies) and praise in his direction, but he eventually tanked to a .614 OPS in his overall AFL stint. My first thought was, "Ok, the AFL has good pitching and is just a small sample, so he'll do better in the Dominican Winter League to redeem himself, right?" Well, the first time I checked Ciriaco's DWL stats, he had accumulated a .588 OPS. ::gags::
However, after turning against him and sliding him a good dozen-plus spots on the list, there were updated stats from the DWL the next time I checked Ciriaco's numbers, and he had rebounded in a major way, raising his OPS to .769. His walk rate was still awful, just two in 47 PAs, but he had also only struck out three times and clubbed a homer. So, batting average was indeed fueling his success, but it wasn't completely unprecedented that it could in this instance. It comes down to this: everyone trying to say that his offensive production at Mobile this year was due to a lot of fortune may have a point, but I honestly think it's hard to say what we have offensively in Ciriaco. Thankfully his defense isn't really a concern, at least for me. I've read reports either having him as a "defensive wizard" or at the very least possessing the best infield arm in the system. Still could be an everyday guy at SS, but the patience needs to show up at some point before that happens. If Ciriaco's not ready, it may have to be Tony Abreu who takes over at SS in 2011 if Drew is dealt, while Ciriaco provides backup infield defense a la Augie Ojeda.
20) CF Keon Broxton - Boom/bust type who strikes out far too much to be any higher than he is here. Ridiculous five-tool potential and the best athlete the Diamondbacks have in their system, but patience really needs to come if he's going to reach the show. One thing that isn't an issue, however, is his glove, which comes naturally to Broxton because of his athletic ability. Could be what CY has thus far failed to become, a power machine who plays excellent center field defense, can stretch doubles into triples, and makes pitchers uneasy whenever he is on the bases. Stay tuned here, 2010 could absolutely vault him up the prospects list, or it could remove him from it (see - Tyrell Worthington, picked in the fifth round in 2007, also rated as the best athlete in the system by BA, but now out of the system after tanking in Yakima at the start of '09). Will just turn 20 in May, and probably will be sent to Yakima next season to start a slow development and ascension through the minors.
21) LHP Wade Miley - Moving from the high-risk high-reward Broxton to a safe-bet low-ceiling type, Miley is a guy who is expected to reach the majors, but has a ceiling of a solid 5th, maybe a passable 4th starter. Nevertheless, he has value strictly because of the arm he throws with and his high-probability of reaching the major leagues. He hasn't hit any major stumbling blocks along his path to the majors, and nothing has changed about his prospect value since he was drafted other than the already-slim chance of him flaming out in the minors decreasing with every level he is promoted to. We'd have liked to have seen more strikeouts this year, but I'll wait another season to see if his metrics recover before hitting the panic button unlike some other reports I've seen.
22) LHP Zachary Kroenke - Unlike Roque Mercedes and Leyson Septimo below, Kroenke isn't known as a guy with back-of-the-bullpen potential. But he isn't a straight LOOGY either, as he threw 72.1 innings in just 34 relief appearances and 2 starts last year at AAA in the Yankees' system, and he's major-league ready after carrying a sub-2 ERA in '09 (and a higher, but still solid FIP). We took him in the Rule 5 Draft, undoubtedly as a left-handed arm to compliment Clay Zavada in the major-league 'pen in both multi-inning relief and as a guy who will occasionally have face a tough lefty or two in a pseudo-LOOGY role, which will be especially important for Arizona this year since their rotation will consist of five RHP's, and because our left-handed arms in the minors are all a year or more away from being ready for the majors. If Kroenke can show that his stuff will work against major-leaguers, Ian Kennedy will not be the only 2009 Yankee minor-leaguer who has a significant role for the D-Backs in 2010.
23) SS Reynaldo Navarro - The kid is even younger than Perez, his 20th birthday having been December 22, and is a switch-hitting fast-running plus-defender at short, ranked by BA as the best infield defender in the D-Backs system, even above Pedro Ciriaco. There is some ridiculous potential to be found in Navarro, although he has to figure a few things out, like how to draw more walks (although his allergy is not as severe as Ciriaco's). Has lots of time to develop, and could be the hidden middle infield gem of our system. A good year offensively repeating at Mid-A would do wonders for Navarro's stock.
24) C John Hester - At one point I had him in the early teens, but Hester winds up down because of his age (which I had already taken into consideration at the previous ranking, actually), 26-years-old, and mostly the fact that it appears less and less likely that the organization will be able to create space for him on the roster by moving incumbent backup Chris Snyder. The guy was just named to the Topps AAA All-Star Team after an offensive explosion in Reno, despite a career reputation as a defense-first catcher whose offense needed to catch up to the defensive advancement. Capable of being a major-league backup today IMO, it's just a matter of whether or not we'll be able to let him be one, or if Snyder's balky back will prevent the team from getting anything for him. Sadly, we may not be able to utilize what is a very rare commodity, a cost-controlled, major-league ready backup catcher who would make $400k for the foreseeable future.
25) RHP Cesar Valdez - He was considered to be major-league ready last year, but injury struck at exactly the wrong time for Valdez this season. Just when the team needed another starter to permanently remove Yusmeiro Petit from the rotation after the trial and failure of Bryan Augenstein, and Valdez had been in the middle of a solid season at Reno, where it is notoriously hard to put up a sub-4 ERA, he wound up on the disabled list. The team sent him to the AFL to try to get some extra innings in post-injury, but he has gotten shelled in his time there, posting a 10.50 ERA in 12.0 IP. However, his most important metric, his GO/AO ratio, has held at a solid 2:1 in the AFL, and the three home runs in 19 hits allowed screams "flukey" for a ground-ball control freak, and lends us to believe that the AFL's hitter-friendly nature and thin air really hurt Valdez. Will be competing with Augenstein, Mulvey, and Buckner for just one spot in the rotation to start next season, although I can't see Valdez beating out any of them except maybe Mulvey. Could see us dealing him at some point mid-season to a team looking for a flier on a major-league-ready arm if we could get a bullpen piece in return (a la the Mulvey-for-Rauch deal, but with us giving up the prospect).
26) LHP Patrick McAnaney - Sure, he posted a disappointing season in Hi-A this year, but let's not forget a few things. 1) The California League is a hitter's league, so some slight regression was in order (although not necessarily to the extent we saw). 2) He posted a 0.89 ERA across two levels in 2008 with a WHIP just above 1 while striking out almost a batter per inning, a.k.a. the numbers of a Roman (or Greek, I don't discriminate) God. 3) He's a legitimate left-handed starting pitching prospect with some good upside, which are exceedingly rare. A bounce-back year next year along the likes of what Roemer put up this season, a brilliant start in Hi-A followed by solid performance during the majority of the season at AA, would shoot McAnaney back up the prospect list in a flash.
27) RHP Joshua Collmenter - I didn't have Collmenter on my list for a really long time, but I've seen a few reports recently that are extremely high on him (one had him ranked #12 in the system, absurdly high for Collmenter's age/level pairing), and as the list has slowly expanded from 15 to 20 to 30 to 40 prospects, Collmenter found his way on here. Led the D-Backs system in total strikeouts in '09 (over one per inning) as a 23-year-old in Hi-A, which is too old for the level, but nonetheless an impressive feat. Amongst BA's '09 list of best tools in the D-Backs system, the best of each individual type of pitch was as follows: "Best Fastball: Jarrod Parker / Best Curveball: Jarrod Parker / Best Slider: Jarrod Parker / Best Changeup: Josh Collmenter."
Both depressingly humorous due to Parker's dominance in injury status, and rather surprising in Collmenter's case to me, but clearly his numbers indicate it's a strikeout pitch. Always fun to see a guy in the low-minors have an advanced off-speed offering as his out-pitch, and that changeup should help Collmenter continue to breeze through levels where hitters simply aren't used to advanced off-speed offerings, at least from a scouting perspective. But given that he relies on off-speed stuff and doesn't possess a fastball that anybody has made sure to write about (i.e. is not very fast), it limits him to back-of-the-rotation innings-eater potential.
28) C Rossmel Perez - Is supposedly already a plus defender at catcher, which is often enough in itself to merit a long major-league career. Problem is, Perez's bat is just so absolutely awful that his defensive value cannot be moved past Mid-A. He can get on-base moderately ok, especially for a guy who just turned 20 in late-August, having drawn 30 walks (to 31 strikeouts) in 353 at-bats. However, he also had an ISO of .045, hitting just sixteen doubles with no triples or home runs amongst his 96 hits in 2009. But, playing a premium defensive position, and playing it well, at his young age makes him a guy to keep an eye on, as he may start to rise meteorically if he can find any semblance of a bat. But until he is at least comfortably below-average-to-fringe-average offensively rather than straight-up awful, I can't put him much higher than here.
29) RHP Barry Enright - His ERA dropped from 2008 to 2009 across the hardest jump in the minors, Hi-A to AA, from 4.44 to just under 4, although the difficulty spike is reduced in our system by the hitter's-league-to-pitcher's-league transition from the Cal League to the Southern League. However, Enright's stock fell because of an alarming decrease in strikeout rate. His K/9 fell from 7.8 to 5.9, a legitimate worry for someone thought of as one of the top pitchers in the system in '08. Still young, and very advanced for his age, but that rate is going to have to bounce back up if he's going to regain his status as a top-10 prospect. If he can, of course, he'll vault back up the list, but don't expect his ERA numbers to remain this good if he continues to flirt with two K's every three innings and dependence on the good favor of the Baseball Gods.
30) RHP Eric Smith - A second-round pick from the '09 draft, and a guy you hear less about than the Borcherings, Belfiores, and Wheelers of the system, despite the fact that the organization loves him, and he was a big part of the SilverHawks' playoff run last year despite arriving in South Bend just 25.2 innings into his professional baseball career. Didn't have great raw numbers in Missoula, with a 4.21 ERA, but his 2.3/1 GO/AO ratio probably indicates that much of his struggles had to do with some horrible infield defense in the rookie-league. Yet, at South Bend, his metrics worsened to pretty awful levels (2 HR in 16.1 innings, with 16 hits, 6 walks, and 10 strikeouts), but he lucked his way into a 2.76 ERA. Is another one of the "fast-rising" college arms that the D-Backs have a huge habit of taking in the earlier rounds. You'd like to see us go for a high ceiling every now and then, but you can't complain with what Smith put up last season in his first taste of pro ball.
31) RHP Roque Mercedes - Of the organization's top-2 high-upside pure relief arms (now that Daniel Schlereth has been traded), Mercedes dramatically out-performed his Mobile teammate, Leyson Septimo at Mobile. Both are fairly old for their levels, with Mercedes having been held up in A-ball for a few too many years, and Septimo having failed as an outfielder before being converted to pitcher and starting the development process over, but yet both have blazing heat and giant K-rates that give the back-of-the-bullpen potential. Also, both started the 2009 season in Hi-A, although Mercedes did so in Milwaukee's system, and earned promotions to AA with fantastic performances at that level. But while Septimo fell apart after a solid start, Mercedes was able to stay afloat throught his entire stint in Mobile to the tune of a solid 3.32 ERA in 19 innings, setting himself up for a quick promotion to AAA in 2010 if he performs similarly to start the year in Mobile.
32) LHP Daniel Taylor - Really put in some fantastic work near the end of the season at Yakima, earning Northwest League Pitcher of the Week honors once, as detailed in the Draftee Report that was just put up today. Ridiculous K/BB ratio and great WHIP lead me to believe that the already-solid 3.53 ERA he accrued may have perhaps been negatively-impacted by some very bad fortune for Taylor, and his FIP/ERA split indicates this as well. Will be 22-years-old for all of next season, is a lefty, and will begin 2010 as perhaps the ace of the South Bend SilverHawks' rotation. A great find for his draft position, and if he can show that last year's position is something that can be maintained, or even built upon, he will find himself joining guys like Belfiore at the top of the system's arm prospects. A guy I'm pretty high on and expect to shoot up the list in '10, especially with the throwing arm and instant success at a moderately-challenging starting level.
33) LHP Leyson Septimo - Had such a promising start to the season at Hi-A, and was named to the World Team of the Futures Game. However, almost immediately after that Futures Game appearance, Septimo was promoted to AA and, although maintaining his amazing K-Rate of more than one per inning, his walk rate jumped by a factor of one-and-a-half, as he gave out 18 free passes in 18.1 innings. That pretty much explains all by itself how Septimo's 3.52 Visalia ERA shot up to 7.85 at Mobile. If he can reign in his control, there's no denying that Septimo has electric stuff and a rocket arm. However, because he failed as an outfielder before being converted to pitcher and starting his development over again, he has to get a move on getting up through the system, as he's already 24. To make matters worse, Septimo had an awful debut in the Dominican Winter League, where he needs to start rebuilding his confidence and control, for the Aguilas Cibenas, walking two, giving up one hit and two runs while getting nobody out in his first appearance. Could be an impact closer-upside guy, but could also flame out of baseball before you can say "one hundred miles per hour."
34) OF Cyle Hankerd - Put up a passable-to-decent year at Mobile despite the absolute offensive suck around him (translated: no lineup protection), and he'll get a chance to break camp at Reno, where he ought to be able to put up some decent numbers. Draws his share of walks and has decent but not great power, but strikes out just a little too much to allow that to translate into great offensive output. Cutting back on those K's just a little would allow Hankerd to absolutely explode, especially given how much his power could manifest itself in the power-happy confines of Reno and the PCL. Don't be shocked if you see this kid closer to the top of the list next summer, and ready to fight to take over the spot Eric Byrnes will leave behind on the big-league squad.
35) SS/2B Taylor Harbin - Harbin, like Hankerd, really has only one thing stopping him from being great - strikeouts. It's rare to find a guy who plays in the middle infield yet clubs 14 home runs in a minor-league season as Harbin did for Visalia, but he also was retired on strikes an astounding 91 times. But, if he can limit those strikeouts, he may be an absolute power monster at a non-power position, a la Dan Uggla without the horrific defensive struggles. Perhaps we got a glimpse of just how good he could be in his short fill-in stint in Reno at the end of the season, when, in 21 at-bats, he struck out just once, and while the sample size is small and luck was there, he carried an impressive .381/.435/.619 line, with three doubles and a triple in just six games. The power is legitimate, but the discipline is missing.
36) SS/2B David Nick - Probably won't stick at shortstop, but with the type of numbers he put up this season, it may not matter. The kid is just about to turn 20 (in February - this keeps him above Goldschmidt), and put up above-average numbers in almost every offensive category for the Pioneer League. He's got good doubles and decent home run power, some base-stealing speed, draws a decent amount of walks, and limits his strikeouts. As he builds up strength, it's quite possible that some of those doubles could lengthen out some as well. There are improvements to be made, but he's certainly ahead of the curve for his age.
37) RHP Chase Anderson - Another guy fresh out of the '09 draft, racked up 48 K's in 45.1 innings, although mostly as a reliever, probably to keep his innings down after a college season at Oklahoma, especially given his scarily-small 6'1'' frame that rares back and throws 93 MPH. If he can stay intact, he has some serious potential, most likely in the bullpen to save his arm and keep his velocity up. The metrics all check out so far, although admittedly we're only dealing with a small sample size of innings.
38) RHP Charles Brewer - A 12th-round pick from UCLA in the '09 draft, scouting reports I've read have said that Brewer has benefited from leaving the Bruins, where the coaches tried to tinker with his delivery with the results typically being pretty bad. Back to his high-school form, Brewer struck out ten per nine innings at Missoula in '09, and while his age is a tad high for the level, he has a chance to be a really good find. Has the frame to end up starting, and actually had a significantly lower walk-rate as a starter, but also had a higher K-rate out of the 'pen, and we picked a lot of guys who we want starting ahead of Brewer. It'll be interesting to see what the FO decides to do with this kid, but it's a good dilemma for the organization.
39) 1B Paul Goldschmidt - Everything to say about Goldschmidt has already been said. The guy demolished the Pioneer Rookie League at an age at which guys who are considered good prospects are supposed to demolish the Pioneer Rookie League. He could be placed either in Mid-A South Bend or Hi-A Visalia to start next season, likely depending on what the organization does with Ryan Wheeler, and how he fares then will almost completely dictate what prospect value he has. The power is certainly there, but at higher levels and against more advanced pitching than what Goldschmidt went up against in Rookie-ball, a huge power swing isn't going to be enough. Also stuck at 1B defensively, so he's going to need to translate a lot of that '09 production to his next stop in the system.
40) RHP Keith Cantwell - There are things that you can ignore and things you cannot ignore in baseball's complex world of statistics. You can be convinced to ignore a 4.11 ERA, which Cantwell put up at Missoula in '09. You CANNOT be convinced to ignore 44 strikeouts in 35.0 innings, which Cantwell also put up at Missoula in '09. That's 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. 11.3 K/9. Absurd. Only walked 5 batters - for a rate of 1.3 BB/9. That's a 8.7:1 K:BB. Allowed just one home run. I just wish I had a legitimate scouting report on what the guy can throw. Yeah, he turned 22 in September, but if Goldschmidt can be considered a prospect for a 1.045 OPS at age 22 in the Pioneer League, Cantwell can be considered a relief arm prospect for his god-like metrics at age 22 in the Pioneer League. Don't be shocked if this late-round pick finds a way to rise quickly through the system and pass a lot of these '09 pitchers by next winter.
Also of note (listed by advancement of level): Hi-A RHP T.J. Hose had great numbers in South Bend and Visalia, but doesn't throw hard and doesn't have any projectionability left in his 5'10'' frame, leading me to believe he's a minor-league reliever who will struggle at higher levels, Rookie-level LHP Patrick Schuster, of consecutive no-hitter fame in high school, threw just five innings after he was lured away from a commitment to Florida when the D-Backs took him in the 13th round, AA RHP Matt Torra, who could revive his prospect status by regaining his K-rate after joining Reno next season, a season too late, Rookie-level RHP Bradin Hagens, a 6th-round pick in '09 who had some pretty bad metrics at Missoula but is considered by association with such a great class of prospects taken in the '09 draft.
Rookie-level RHP Kevin Eichhorn, one of the organization's "pedigree" guys, as the son of a former major-leaguer, and someone we were extremely high on when we picked him, but who hasn't thrown enough pro innings for there to be much of an evaluation of him yet, and Rookie-level 3B/1B Matt Helm, whose choice to sign with the D-Backs despite Borchering, Wheeler, Krauss, and Davidson all likely to end up at the corner-infield spots still baffles me, and is probably another kid I'm docking a bit too much because of the fact that he's a poor system fit. Further, IF Tony Abreu, RHP Billy Buckner, and RHP Ian Kennedy are no longer prospects, although none of them spent much, if any, time in the majors last year - If they were prospects, all of them would likely be top-6 for me with Parker, Allen, and Borchering.
Also, because the D-Backs have a good history with prospects from their Dominican Summer League affiliate, I've written up a few blurbs on some of the names you might hear out of the DSL. However, since I know very little about the DSL, I didn't feel it wise to try to fit them into the actual top-40 list.
- SS Antonio Sepulveda - Played in just one game for Missoula this year after coming over from the D-Backs DSL affiliate, and collected two RBI in his only hit. Supposedly turns 18 on the last day of 2009, although given the suspicious nature of ages for Latin-American prospects, this particular date strikes me as curious. BA ranked him as the fastest baserunner in the system, so I feel it's a safe assumption to say that Sepulveda has the kind of quickness to stay at shortstop and perhaps develop into a good defender there. Otherwise, he's clearly extremely raw, although the fact that he is already playing in the US at 17 is encouraging, unlike...
- CF Jeremia Gomez - Admittedly, these two guys are at this point of the list because frankly I have no idea where they slot, as I have exactly zero knowledge of the DSL, but tacked them on at the end because of the D-Backs' good history of getting major-league talent from their DSL team. BA ranked Gomez's outfield arm as the best in the system, however, so he'll find a way to make himself a good defender at some outfield position. Hit just .266, but still got on-base at a .351 clip, hopefully a sign of a little bit of patience, and displayed impressive power with a .424 SLG, totaling a .775 OPS. Is going to turn 19 in February, at least according to whatever documents we have, so he has time to develop, although I could see the organization trying to bring him to the US next year to get some at-bats against some better competition.
- OF Jose Jose - Jose Squared (greatest nickname ever) has a lot of issues right now. After striking out in over half of his at-bats in '08, he struck out 78 times in 169 at-bats in '09. But Jose (and you don't know if I'm referring to his first or last name there :-P) is mentioned here because of his remarkable power ceiling, and if he can ever shorten up his swing a little, you could see some special things from him. That power potential is what netted him a $150k bonus from the D-Backs, and he has the raw tools to be great, but really needs to get a move on getting himself straightened out, as he'll turn 20 next season and still is wallowing away with sub-.200 BA's in the DSL.
Wow, admittedly, while an absolute ton of work and a process that began around the time Zephon and I were writing our first '09 draft reports and has carried on half-way through December, this has been an amazingly fun experience for me. Honestly I'm already looking forward to seeing how things shake up for next year's list due to the unusual circumstance of so many lower-level guys at the top of the rankings who are going to find their first full-season of tests in 2010. Hope that, if nothing else, this gives you an idea of the bulk mass of guys we have in our system, even if you disagree with most of the rankings themselves. ;-) And, with the finale of our gigantic collaboration, I'd like to take the opportunity that I have to write a conclusion to an article to thank Zephon for being great to collaborate with despite this task being a lot of stress and a lot of work, and to everyone who has made our effort worthwhile by commenting and creating some darned interesting dialogue on all of these pieces. EDIT 12/29/09 - Moved Navarro and Perez further up on the list because they're as young as, if not younger than, many of the '09 draft guys at the top of the list and are plus defenders at key defensive positions. Also, the newest version includes some edits from Mr. Jim McLennan at the AZSnakePit, who was kind enough to sort through some of the confusion of this piece's structure, which I mostly ignored during writing. Thanks to Mr. McLennan for his help.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
TWG Exclusive - The Phillies/M's/Jays/A's Halladay/Lee Trade
First, I feel it necessary to mention that I've expanded the trade to add what the Jays are doing with Oakland, swapping former-Phillies OF prospect Michael Taylor for 3B/1B Brett Wallace, essentially making what was originally conceived as a three-team trade (although that could easily be broken up into two two-team deals as well) into a four-team trade to add more glitzy appeal for everyone trying to cement it as one of the biggest, most dramatic, and most interesting trades in history because, well, it is. So here is the entirety of the trade:
Phillies get:
RHP Roy Halladay from Toronto
RHP Philippe Aumont from Seattle
OF Tyson Gillies from Seattle
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez from Seattle
M's get:
LHP Cliff Lee from Philadelphia
Jays get:
RHP Kyle Drabek from Philadelphia
C Travis D'Arnaud from Philadelphia
1B/3B Brett Wallace from Oakland
A's get:
OF Michael Taylor from Philadelphia
And, to help keep everything straight (although the deal is fairly simplistic, essentially three two-team trades mashed together):
Phillies give up:
LHP Cliff Lee to Seattle
RHP Kyle Drabek to Toronto
C Travis D'Arnaud to Toronto
OF Michael Taylor to Oakland
M's give up:
RHP Philippe Aumont to Philadelphia
OF Tyson Gillies to Philadelphia
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez to Philadelphia
Jays give up:
RHP Roy Halladay to Philadelphia
A's give up:
1B/3B Brett Wallace to Toronto
Also, a brief view of each prospect, his expected ceiling, and the season each just finished up:
To Philadelphia:
RHP Philippe Aumont - Already a reliever, hip problems took him out of the rotation at the young age of 20. Also has makeup problems, having broken his non-throwing hand punching a locker. Had a 3.24 ERA in 33.1 innings at Hi-A High Desert and a 5.09 ERA in 17.2 innings at AA West Tennessee, with the ERA spike both due to control failings (11 walks in those 17.2 innings) and bad luck (10.7 hits/9 innings cannot accompany 12.2 K/9 innings without some fluky BABIP, or maybe it's just me)
OF Tyson Gillies - Extremely fast (stole 44 bases in '09), but yet, despite an OPS of .916 and nine home runs this year at Hi-A High Desert, doesn't appear to have a build that would allow for that to carry over any sort of power to the majors. Seems like a Juan Pierre-type to me, a guy who relies completely on OBP to have any sort of offensive usefulness, and will need to become a great defender to be an everyday guy. However, there is promise for this, as his OBP last season was .430.
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez - Unlike Aumont, has actually stuck in the rotation, but has had some mixed results in the minors. Hasn't posted an ERA below 4 in three years since coming to America from the Venezuelan Summer League, although this was at age 18 in Short-season A, 19 in Mid-a, and 20 in Hi-A. Just posted an ERA of 5.12 in 27 starts and one relief appearance at High Desert, so expect him to repeat the level.
To Jays:
RHP Kyle Drabek - The guy the Jays have wanted as part of a Philadelphia-Halladay deal since last season. The son of Dave Drabek, a former major-league pitcher, Kyle dominated Hi-A in 9 starts and a relief appearance with a 2.48 ERA before being promoted to AA and putting up a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts and a relief appearance there. Will be in AAA to start '10, and could be ready for a full-time major-league starting gig in 2011. Good metrics, although with a significant K-rate dip across the Hi-A to AA jump, great at limiting walks, and could be a top-line starter.
C Travis D'Arnaud - Decent, but not great, throwing arm, and a solid bat for the position. Threw out 23% of base-stealers in '09, and put up an OPS of .738 at AA. Needs to get on base more than the .319 clip he posted.
1B/3B Brett Wallace - A quick riser through the minors, made it from Mid-A at 21 out of college to AAA in about 1 1/3 seasons at age 22. Will be a major-leaguer next year, and although his defense is suspect at third, he has the bat and power potential to make it as a first-baseman if necessary. Smacked 20 home runs and held an .822 OPS at three stops in '09, including a shift from St. Louis' AAA affiliate in the PCL to Oakland's AAA affiliate in the PCL as a part of the Matt Holliday trade. The best pure bat involved in this deal.
To A's:
OF Michael Taylor - A guy you're probably going to see sometime in 2010, just posted an OPS of .944 across AA and AAA. Is a corner outfielder, so his bat will have to produce, but an OBP pushing .400 and 20 home runs in a minor-league season, especially at the high levels, is pretty darned good.
And now, I'll break down the deal by team:
For the A's:
Starting with the A's because it's the simplest part of the deal. They trade a better major-league-ready bat at a position (1B/DH, as his 3B defense was sufficiently horrific, although I listed him there just in case Toronto gives it a shot) they're over-stocked at in the majors with Chris Carter, Daric Barton, and Jake Fox for a bat that people have differing opinions on, but plays in the OF, where they were in greater need of offensive help. It's hard to say who got the better player of the Wallace/Taylor swap aspect of this, but I tend to think that Toronto did, and Oakland knows it, but the position need made it make sense for both sides.
For the M's:
The M’s have had the best off-season in baseball. As executives continue to undervalue OBP and spend fortunes to get top-line starting pitching, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik now has assembled two-headed OBP monster of Ichiro and Figgins to cause absolute havoc for 162 games, and assembled the best 1-2 starting pitching tandem in the game today in Felix Hernandez and Lee. The last tandem I've seen that is in the same ballpark is Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling from the Diamondbacks of the early 2000's. And when you look at the quality of prospects the Phillies gave up for their ace (future top-line starter potential, top catching prospect, major-league-ready corner outfield speed/power/on-base bat) in comparison to what the M's gave up for theirs (future closer potential, hit-or-miss starting pitcher prospect who has done nothing special in the low minors, OF with speed but questionable power), you start to understand just how much of a heist the M's pulled. They also are going to pay Lee $8M next season, while the Phillies are paying Halladay around $13.5M, and are extending him at $20M per for three seasons with a vesting option for one or two more seasons. Whether or not the M's can retain Lee after this season is another question, but they clearly saw that the Angels were losing talent and their grasp on the AL West, and saw an opportunity to take the AL West by storm in 2010. If the M's can retain Lee (they were in the Jason Bay sweepstakes for a while, so perhaps they have enough money to throw at him), they are dominant for years headlining Felix and Lee, and give Felix all the more incentive to extend and stay in Seattle long-term. That, and they didn't gut the best prospects out of their system or trade their premier young talent (i.e. Brandon Morrow, Dustin Ackley). Can't argue with that.
For the Jays:
They got the guy they wanted in Drabek, but yet they really ought to have dealt Halladay back at the deadline when they could have gotten more for him. Then again, you can't blame Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos for that, since he wasn't the GM at that time. By being creative with Seattle and Oakland, Toronto got their top-line starter prospect and a corner-infield power bat to feature with Travis Snyder and Adam Lind. That's a pretty fearsome, young, and inexpensive combination for a rebuilding team.
For the Philles:
Lee is not better than Halladay (Halladay has done it more consistently in the tougher league), but the difference is not worth the difference in quality of prospects the Phillies gave up and took back. As a friend of mine pointed out, Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro was in "make a huge trade to show we're still big-time contenders" mode, and he got taken to school by Zduriencik. This is especially depressing for Philly fans when you realize that he could have had BOTH Lee and Halladay last year at the deadline for an approximate combined three years of control for eight prospects, and guaranteed themselves two World Series rings. The Yankees don’t beat Halladay-Lee-Hamels the way they beat Lee-Hamels-etc., as Halladay's calling card for years has been shutting down the AL East. Instead, he overvalues his prospects, half-asses his run for the World Series by getting just Lee, loses, and makes a panic-deal to try to give a façade of activity. Ever since inheriting a championship team, Amaro has done nothing helpful for the Phillies. Polanco? No arbitration for Park? Not assembling the best top-3 of a rotation possibly in baseball history when you already have a stacked lineup, and without sacrificing any of that stacked lineup? Miserable. I’d be sick if I was a Phillies fan. And the excuse now for dealing Lee is that they are trying to sustain their run at championships for a longer-term with Halladay in the fold for a greater number of years, and prospects to replenish the system and Lee likely gone in 2011. Problem is, they're not going to get 2 World Series rings within this Halladay deal, and they could have guaranteed that if they'd made this deal without Lee last trade deadline.
Overall, Zduriencik built up his team to make a World Series run in 2010, and frankly I like how their roster looks in the short-term more than how the Phillies look. Toronto re-stocked for the future, and Oakland made its prospects and young pieces make more sense. Philadelphia, however, didn't really make anything more than a lateral move, and won't be beating New York anytime soon with what they have, which is horrible when you consider just what could have been.
Phillies get:
RHP Roy Halladay from Toronto
RHP Philippe Aumont from Seattle
OF Tyson Gillies from Seattle
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez from Seattle
M's get:
LHP Cliff Lee from Philadelphia
Jays get:
RHP Kyle Drabek from Philadelphia
C Travis D'Arnaud from Philadelphia
1B/3B Brett Wallace from Oakland
A's get:
OF Michael Taylor from Philadelphia
And, to help keep everything straight (although the deal is fairly simplistic, essentially three two-team trades mashed together):
Phillies give up:
LHP Cliff Lee to Seattle
RHP Kyle Drabek to Toronto
C Travis D'Arnaud to Toronto
OF Michael Taylor to Oakland
M's give up:
RHP Philippe Aumont to Philadelphia
OF Tyson Gillies to Philadelphia
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez to Philadelphia
Jays give up:
RHP Roy Halladay to Philadelphia
A's give up:
1B/3B Brett Wallace to Toronto
Also, a brief view of each prospect, his expected ceiling, and the season each just finished up:
To Philadelphia:
RHP Philippe Aumont - Already a reliever, hip problems took him out of the rotation at the young age of 20. Also has makeup problems, having broken his non-throwing hand punching a locker. Had a 3.24 ERA in 33.1 innings at Hi-A High Desert and a 5.09 ERA in 17.2 innings at AA West Tennessee, with the ERA spike both due to control failings (11 walks in those 17.2 innings) and bad luck (10.7 hits/9 innings cannot accompany 12.2 K/9 innings without some fluky BABIP, or maybe it's just me)
OF Tyson Gillies - Extremely fast (stole 44 bases in '09), but yet, despite an OPS of .916 and nine home runs this year at Hi-A High Desert, doesn't appear to have a build that would allow for that to carry over any sort of power to the majors. Seems like a Juan Pierre-type to me, a guy who relies completely on OBP to have any sort of offensive usefulness, and will need to become a great defender to be an everyday guy. However, there is promise for this, as his OBP last season was .430.
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez - Unlike Aumont, has actually stuck in the rotation, but has had some mixed results in the minors. Hasn't posted an ERA below 4 in three years since coming to America from the Venezuelan Summer League, although this was at age 18 in Short-season A, 19 in Mid-a, and 20 in Hi-A. Just posted an ERA of 5.12 in 27 starts and one relief appearance at High Desert, so expect him to repeat the level.
To Jays:
RHP Kyle Drabek - The guy the Jays have wanted as part of a Philadelphia-Halladay deal since last season. The son of Dave Drabek, a former major-league pitcher, Kyle dominated Hi-A in 9 starts and a relief appearance with a 2.48 ERA before being promoted to AA and putting up a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts and a relief appearance there. Will be in AAA to start '10, and could be ready for a full-time major-league starting gig in 2011. Good metrics, although with a significant K-rate dip across the Hi-A to AA jump, great at limiting walks, and could be a top-line starter.
C Travis D'Arnaud - Decent, but not great, throwing arm, and a solid bat for the position. Threw out 23% of base-stealers in '09, and put up an OPS of .738 at AA. Needs to get on base more than the .319 clip he posted.
1B/3B Brett Wallace - A quick riser through the minors, made it from Mid-A at 21 out of college to AAA in about 1 1/3 seasons at age 22. Will be a major-leaguer next year, and although his defense is suspect at third, he has the bat and power potential to make it as a first-baseman if necessary. Smacked 20 home runs and held an .822 OPS at three stops in '09, including a shift from St. Louis' AAA affiliate in the PCL to Oakland's AAA affiliate in the PCL as a part of the Matt Holliday trade. The best pure bat involved in this deal.
To A's:
OF Michael Taylor - A guy you're probably going to see sometime in 2010, just posted an OPS of .944 across AA and AAA. Is a corner outfielder, so his bat will have to produce, but an OBP pushing .400 and 20 home runs in a minor-league season, especially at the high levels, is pretty darned good.
And now, I'll break down the deal by team:
For the A's:
Starting with the A's because it's the simplest part of the deal. They trade a better major-league-ready bat at a position (1B/DH, as his 3B defense was sufficiently horrific, although I listed him there just in case Toronto gives it a shot) they're over-stocked at in the majors with Chris Carter, Daric Barton, and Jake Fox for a bat that people have differing opinions on, but plays in the OF, where they were in greater need of offensive help. It's hard to say who got the better player of the Wallace/Taylor swap aspect of this, but I tend to think that Toronto did, and Oakland knows it, but the position need made it make sense for both sides.
For the M's:
The M’s have had the best off-season in baseball. As executives continue to undervalue OBP and spend fortunes to get top-line starting pitching, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik now has assembled two-headed OBP monster of Ichiro and Figgins to cause absolute havoc for 162 games, and assembled the best 1-2 starting pitching tandem in the game today in Felix Hernandez and Lee. The last tandem I've seen that is in the same ballpark is Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling from the Diamondbacks of the early 2000's. And when you look at the quality of prospects the Phillies gave up for their ace (future top-line starter potential, top catching prospect, major-league-ready corner outfield speed/power/on-base bat) in comparison to what the M's gave up for theirs (future closer potential, hit-or-miss starting pitcher prospect who has done nothing special in the low minors, OF with speed but questionable power), you start to understand just how much of a heist the M's pulled. They also are going to pay Lee $8M next season, while the Phillies are paying Halladay around $13.5M, and are extending him at $20M per for three seasons with a vesting option for one or two more seasons. Whether or not the M's can retain Lee after this season is another question, but they clearly saw that the Angels were losing talent and their grasp on the AL West, and saw an opportunity to take the AL West by storm in 2010. If the M's can retain Lee (they were in the Jason Bay sweepstakes for a while, so perhaps they have enough money to throw at him), they are dominant for years headlining Felix and Lee, and give Felix all the more incentive to extend and stay in Seattle long-term. That, and they didn't gut the best prospects out of their system or trade their premier young talent (i.e. Brandon Morrow, Dustin Ackley). Can't argue with that.
For the Jays:
They got the guy they wanted in Drabek, but yet they really ought to have dealt Halladay back at the deadline when they could have gotten more for him. Then again, you can't blame Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos for that, since he wasn't the GM at that time. By being creative with Seattle and Oakland, Toronto got their top-line starter prospect and a corner-infield power bat to feature with Travis Snyder and Adam Lind. That's a pretty fearsome, young, and inexpensive combination for a rebuilding team.
For the Philles:
Lee is not better than Halladay (Halladay has done it more consistently in the tougher league), but the difference is not worth the difference in quality of prospects the Phillies gave up and took back. As a friend of mine pointed out, Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro was in "make a huge trade to show we're still big-time contenders" mode, and he got taken to school by Zduriencik. This is especially depressing for Philly fans when you realize that he could have had BOTH Lee and Halladay last year at the deadline for an approximate combined three years of control for eight prospects, and guaranteed themselves two World Series rings. The Yankees don’t beat Halladay-Lee-Hamels the way they beat Lee-Hamels-etc., as Halladay's calling card for years has been shutting down the AL East. Instead, he overvalues his prospects, half-asses his run for the World Series by getting just Lee, loses, and makes a panic-deal to try to give a façade of activity. Ever since inheriting a championship team, Amaro has done nothing helpful for the Phillies. Polanco? No arbitration for Park? Not assembling the best top-3 of a rotation possibly in baseball history when you already have a stacked lineup, and without sacrificing any of that stacked lineup? Miserable. I’d be sick if I was a Phillies fan. And the excuse now for dealing Lee is that they are trying to sustain their run at championships for a longer-term with Halladay in the fold for a greater number of years, and prospects to replenish the system and Lee likely gone in 2011. Problem is, they're not going to get 2 World Series rings within this Halladay deal, and they could have guaranteed that if they'd made this deal without Lee last trade deadline.
Overall, Zduriencik built up his team to make a World Series run in 2010, and frankly I like how their roster looks in the short-term more than how the Phillies look. Toronto re-stocked for the future, and Oakland made its prospects and young pieces make more sense. Philadelphia, however, didn't really make anything more than a lateral move, and won't be beating New York anytime soon with what they have, which is horrible when you consider just what could have been.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Out With The Old
With that, we've covered all of my past major AZSnakepit postings, and everything that is new will no longer be accompanied by a date, as the date of posting on here will be the same as the date of posting on the Snakepit.
December 9, 2009 - Crazy Trade Idea
Let's see what everyone thinks of this - The Marlins are looking to deal Dan Uggla, and, in classic Marlins fashion, are looking for little to no salary coming back to them, including some prospects who will at some point be able to fill in for Uggla. Estimates I've heard for his likely salary for 2010 range around $7M, up only a slight amount from $5.35M in 2009 due to a relative off-year from Uggla. If we eat all but $2M of Snyder's salary for next season (or however much we need to shed to fit in Uggla), and all of Snyder's salary for 2011, perhaps the same with Eric Byrnes, or deal one of the Roberts/Ryal/Ojeda trio as a cost-efficient replacement for the Marlins, perhaps lure in a third team, etc., could we spin a way to get Uggla? For $7M, we're not going to find a much better bat on the market, and we could easily move the guy to first (since his D at second is suspect at best anyways). For example, the Rangers have one of the most loaded farm systems in all of baseball. Theyre not going to give up a Smoak or Feliz, or even an Andrus, since they're not going to be the team getting the big name player, but something like this could ensue:
D-Backs get:
2B/1B Dan Uggla from FLA
Marlins get:
2B Ryan Roberts from AZ
RHP Michael Main from TEX (ranked #90 prospect in baseball before '09, had miserable '09 season at Hi-A, but will be just 21 for all of next season)
LHP Tom Layne from AZ
OF Collin Cowgill from AZ
Rangers get:
C Chris Snyder from AZ (D-Backs eat entire salary for next two seasons except $2M total, preferrably both for this season).
Fringier prospects from AZ
The Rangers desperately need a catcher, and Main's massive struggle year, combined with Arizona's eating of a huge chunk of Snyder's salary (just enough to fit in Uggla, as a matter of fact) would be a way to get a cost-efficient catching option for a team needing a catching option desperately (perhaps, if necessary, we could give Texas another prospect of marginal value, a Cesar Valdez or Taylor Harbin). For Florida, They shed lots of salary, get three good prospects, one in Main who has high upside, and two in Layne and Cowgill who are more low-risk, and a cost-efficient replacement for Uggla in Roberts who plays better D and can mash LHP. If they want more upside, perhaps we could give more to Texas and pray that we could pry a better prospect from them to give to Florida. We give up even more prospects, but isn't Dan Uggla worth it? Seems like the perfect bat that we're looking for, and he fits our budget nicely if we can shed that $2M or so from Snyder. We could even condition the deal on a negotiating period/extension with Uggla.
Don't worry, I know this is more than a little bit fantastical, but this is why I love winter meetings. Let me know who you think blinks at this deal.
D-Backs get:
2B/1B Dan Uggla from FLA
Marlins get:
2B Ryan Roberts from AZ
RHP Michael Main from TEX (ranked #90 prospect in baseball before '09, had miserable '09 season at Hi-A, but will be just 21 for all of next season)
LHP Tom Layne from AZ
OF Collin Cowgill from AZ
Rangers get:
C Chris Snyder from AZ (D-Backs eat entire salary for next two seasons except $2M total, preferrably both for this season).
Fringier prospects from AZ
The Rangers desperately need a catcher, and Main's massive struggle year, combined with Arizona's eating of a huge chunk of Snyder's salary (just enough to fit in Uggla, as a matter of fact) would be a way to get a cost-efficient catching option for a team needing a catching option desperately (perhaps, if necessary, we could give Texas another prospect of marginal value, a Cesar Valdez or Taylor Harbin). For Florida, They shed lots of salary, get three good prospects, one in Main who has high upside, and two in Layne and Cowgill who are more low-risk, and a cost-efficient replacement for Uggla in Roberts who plays better D and can mash LHP. If they want more upside, perhaps we could give more to Texas and pray that we could pry a better prospect from them to give to Florida. We give up even more prospects, but isn't Dan Uggla worth it? Seems like the perfect bat that we're looking for, and he fits our budget nicely if we can shed that $2M or so from Snyder. We could even condition the deal on a negotiating period/extension with Uggla.
Don't worry, I know this is more than a little bit fantastical, but this is why I love winter meetings. Let me know who you think blinks at this deal.
December 9, 2009 - 2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Four Pitchers Allen-Hale (Co-Written w/ Zephon)
The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Keith Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.
For this, the fourth part of the piece, we'll begin to look at the arms added to the system, eighteen in all. How to break up these picks was perhaps the biggest dilemma for this week's piece. It's impossible to know which guys will end up as starters and which will end up as relievers, so that distinction was a no-go. Lefty vs. righty would have resulted in two really lopsided articles, with the Snakes picking fourteen righties to just four lefties. So we got creative, and first split the article alphabetically, so that the first article will cover A-Hale, and the second article will cover Harvil-Z. Then, within each article, the prospects are organized from highest to lowest draft position. It's not a perfect organization, but it works well enough, especially when given the alternative options.
Star-divide
The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success. It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.
Baseball is one of those rare sports where the ultimate team mentality is directly clashing with one person's determination to dominate a contest on his own. No one offensive player, or even no pair of offensive players, can win game after game single-handedly, as Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton so aptly demonstrated last season. Offense is a team collaboration in baseball, and requires a stringing-together of multiple successful at-bats in order to effectively produce runs. Pitching, on the other hand, is completely opposite of this. Sure, a good defense can help a pitcher out, but the defense cannot affect the pitches being thrown. Even the best offenses can be effectively shut down by a dominant pitcher, and an amazing start can mesmerize a crowd. And, for Arizona, that has been a point well-made by some of the dominant starters to grace the mound for the Snakes.
The first four that will be, and should be, mentioned are the two duos, co-World Series MVP's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling from the marvellous 2001 season, and two guys on the roster today who, when at their best, are bona fide Cy Young contenders, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. However, what deserves to be noted about these two pairs of aces is how they were attained by the organization. Johnson was signed as a free agent after a late-season trade to the Astros, and Schilling was acquired from Philadelphia for three young but mostly big-league ready players (Travis Lee, Vincente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa) and Omar Daal. On the other hand, Webb was developed as a prospect after being an absolutely astounding find in the eighth round of the 2000 draft (which leaves us to wonder why we don't now take a pitcher every year in the eighth round out of moral obligation), and Haren was acquired in 2007 along with fringe-average reliever Connor Robertson (later traded for Scott Schoeneweis) from Oakland in exchange for six prospects (Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Chris Carter) who are just now starting to seep into the major leagues.
Sifting below the cream, you can also find a number of quality #3/#4 types who have hit the rubber for Arizona, including Brian Anderson, who is third on Arizona's innings-pitched list behind Johnson and Webb, Miguel Batista, fifth on that list after Schilling, Doug Davis at #6, Daal at #7, and Andy Benes at #8. As for relievers, we've had great luck with young, inexpensive back-of-the-pen options Byung-Hyun Kim, Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Mike Koplove, and Juan Cruz. Any way you slice it, pitching has typically been a position of strength for Arizona.
Next season, however, may be a different story. The rotation has one big hole at the #4 slot, one big question in whether or not Brandon Webb will be able to return close to his #1 form as our #2 starter, and one big competition amongst Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augenstein, and Cesar Valdez for the #5 slot. The discussion has been rampant on the 'Pit as to who the team will sign for that #4 slot, with Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Pedro Martinez, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Eric Bedard, and even Chris Capuano's scattered ashes all being tossed out (no pun intended... okay, yes it was) as signing possibilities. Perhaps the only certainty about this situation is that we will sign a guy, probably later on in the bidding process when some of the market has diminished and the guys who are left are scrambling to try to find a roster that needs them.
Further, the system has no real impact guys close to major-league ready now that star prospect Jarrod Parker is going to be shelved for all of 2010 recovering from TJ surgery, although the organization does have a fair number of #4/#5 potential arms in the upper ranks. In the upper levels of the system aside from the aforementioned foursome, amongst whom only Augenstein probably has the potential to be anything above a #4 guy (and even that will require some serious work on his secondary offerings), Tony Barnette could be ready to be a #5 guy in 2011, Matt Torra could see a rotation in 2011 or 2012, and while Barry Enright's ERA dropped across the hardest jump in the minors, his metrics need a major rebound year to get him back to being a top prospect as he was a year ago (K:BB fell from over 4:1 to 2.8:1). Tom Layne pitched well in the AFL and can be either a starter or reliever. Wes Roemer proved his dominance over the California League before having a solid season at Mobile. Further down in the system there is some promise, with both Trevor Harden and Pat McAnaney ending the season with decent numbers at Visalia. Bryan Shaw's metrics at Visalia indicate he was the victim of some serious bad luck, and he still had some moderate success as a starter. Wade Miley had a solid season at South Bend, and will start at Visalia next season.
Relief arms are also aplenty, and even after trading away Dan Schlereth, they still have a few lefties stashed away with Leyson Septimo and Jordan Norberto having.... interesting.... years in the minors, and Clay Zavada's big debut season solidifying the left-handed relief contingent to the point where the organization felt comfortable in trading away LOOGY-in-the-making Scott Maine in the Aaron Heilman trade. Roque Mercedes looks like another great piece added from the Felipe Lopez trade, and Bryan Henry had a good year at Visalia. Reid Mahon lost the ground-ball-inducing ability on his sinker, and needs to find it quickly if he's going to rebound and have major-league value. 40-man roster men Daniel Stange and Kyler Newby each have a lot of work to do in not a lot of time if they're going to reach the majors, in both cases involving the finding of lost K-rates. Bryan Woodall had a good season in South Bend, striking out ten per nine innings. Josh Ellis was lights out in Mobile, but while the wheels fell off in Reno, the lack of any metric spikes leads me to believe foul luck was a factor. Finally, Billy Spottiswood had a peculiar (and luck-filled) season, being promoted from Hi-A to AAA to provide rest for Reno's arms, and despite metric spikes and dips all over (K-rate drop, BB-rate spike, HR-rate spike), his WHIP fell, as did his ERA.
Yet, in drafting arms, there really isn't much of a pattern that can be adhered to. Teams look for a few things - projectionability (a tall body with wide shoulders that indicate the potential to add extra bulk and hence extra velocity on a pitcher's fastball - also an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury), smooth pitching mechanics (typically an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury, although I've heard recent studies say mechanics have little indication on a pitcher's risk of injury), and, of course, what a pitcher already has - the stuff he posesses, his command, poise, feel for pitching, and production in high school and/or college. Even more difficult is knowing what role a pitcher will end up in. For an example that has already been covered to a slight extent, a guy who begins his minor-league career as a potential left-handed ace (Scott Maine) can wind up with LOOGY-upside by the time he reaches AAA (hence why we dealt him in the aforementioned Aaron Heilman trade). You just never know, as so much can go wrong with a pitching prospect, even the best of them (see - aforementioned Jarrod Parker).
Really, the only thing a team can do is try to mix a combination of college arms with polish and shorter paths to the majors with higher-upside high school arms who have a bigger risk of injuries due to the need for a longer development time in the minors. However, the D-Backs' philosophy in the early rounds tends to lean towards college arms, with past arms such as Daniel Schlereth (University of Arizona - 1st round, 2008), Wade Miley (Southeastern Louisiana University - 1st round, 2008), Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton - 1st round, 2007), Max Scherzer (University of Missouri - 1st round, 2006), Brooks Brown (University of Georgia - 1st round, 2006), and Matt Torra (University of Massachusetts - 1st round, 2005) all being high picks from colleges. Not to say that the team will refuse to select a high school arm early, but typically if they're going to do so, they look for some polish in the player they're drafting, as was the case with Jarrod Parker (Norwell HS in Ossian, Indiana - 1st round, 2007), whose minor-league pitching career began in Mid-A South Bend, and who had made it to AA Mobile before elbow injuries ended his season in '09. This philosophy stems from the team's budget consciousness, as they look for safer bets to spend their money on in the early rounds of the draft so as to not have a complete disaster cost them a multi-million dollar signing bonus without any return. And, indeed, this philosophy remained intact for the '09 class, as the first four arms taken, Mike Belfiore, Eric Smith, Bradin Hagens, and Chase Anderson, were all from the college ranks. So, without further ado:
1/2 Sandwich Round, Pick 45 - Michael Belfiore
Born: October 3, 1988 in Commack, New York School: Boston College Height: 6'3'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Left
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 2-2 IP: 58.0 ERA: 2.17 FIP: 2.48 BABIP: .344 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 55:13 GO:AO: 1.85:1
Zephon: Michael Belfiore is a hard throwing left handed pitcher who'll hopefully rise through the system quickly, and looking at his excellent debut season, it looks he might just do that. Baseball America ranked Belfiore as our number seven prospect. Looking at his numbers, there's not a single thing that I don't like. He's got an excellent 2.17 ERA to go along with a mighty fine 1.24 WHIP. In addition, he's got an excellent almost 5:1 strike out to walk ratio. An excellent debut season all around. look for him in High A Visalia next season, or possibly AA Mobile by season's end. In my opinion, Belfiore is a top 10 prospect, and one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the Diamondbacks farm system. Grade A (Short term: A Long term: A+)
IHSB: Mike Belfiore cemented his status as one of the top-10, prospects in the D-Backs system with his absolutely ridiculous debut season in Missoula. There's so much to like. The first-half-Haren-esque ERA. The 1.24 WHIP. The K:BB. How often he induces ground ball outs with his heavy fastball despite definitely being a strikeout pitcher. Even the fact that he throwed left-handed, which seems to add an extra couple million dollars on a free-agent pricetag. The only things counting against Belfiore are that we expected a good season from a guy who was the 45th pick, was 20 years old after some time in college ball, and was in rookie-ball with a bunch of high school kids, but by all accounts Belfiore destroyed any expectations the team may have had for him, and was absolutely a man amongst boys. Consider this deeper look into the numbers: the team's plan involved Belfiore starting with a few relief outings before going into the rotation. In three relief appearances, he accumulated a 7.36 ERA. However, knowing his season ERA, you know where this is headed. In his 11 starts following the bullpen disaster, Belfiore absolutely dominated in the role he's more accustomed to, and will be in for his career, posting a 1.82 ERA. Expect him to certainly skip Low-A, and earn himself a promotion to Hi-A by mid-season if he lights up the Midwest League the way he lit up the Pioneer League. Or, perhaps the Jarrod Parker promotion track could be applied to Belfiore (second season begins in Hi-A, quick promotion to AA if performance merits it). As a side note, he also played first base in college and has drawn Micah Owings comparisons because of his ability to win more games than his ERA would merit due to helping himself with his bat, another tool that will keep him in a rotation. Grade: A (Short-term: A-, Long-term: A)
Round 6, Pick 186 - Bradin Hagens
Born: May 12, 1989 in Denair, California School: Merced JC (California) Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 23.2 ERA: 3.42 FIP: 2.99 BABIP: .350 WHIP: 1.48 K:BB: 13:6 GO:AO: 2.56:1
Zephon: Although I can't find a scouting report on Hagens, I do know that the Diamondbacks like his arm and the sink he gets on his fastball. Hagens is a groundball pitcher.The club saw him throw up to 94 mph and will hope he can develop his secondary stuff. 23.2 innings pitched doesn't give you that much of a sample size to work with, but I'll try my hand at grading this guy anyway. 3.42 ERA is below league average, the whip is a little high, and the strike out to walk ratio is decent, not great. He's got a nice GO/AO ratio as well. He does get extra points for being young, however. This is a guy I need to see pitch for a full season. Grade: B (Short term B, Long term B)
IHSB: Well, there are certainly two types of really successful pitchers: the first type is like Belfiore, where stuff leads to strikeouts, which leads to BABIP not resulting in a pitcher's demise. The second type is represented by Hagens - ground ball pitchers who rely on the fact that BABIP on a lazy ground ball to the shortstop is pretty close to zero to get outs. Hagens had a decent GO:AO ratio last season from the sink he gets on his fastball, and despite a pretty scary WHIP, a guy getting that many groundouts isn't going to have that high of a BABIP, leading me to believe that some bad luck bit at Hagens last year and that the scary WHIP will go down a little. His frame is a bit small for a pitcher, but if you're going to try to do it at 6'1'', relying on sink rather than overpowering stuff is probably the way to go unless you want to blow out an elbow (see: Jarrod Parker). He's got a few things working for him going into next season, likely at Yakima. Grade: B- (Short-term: C+ Long-term: B-)
Round 9, Pick 276 - Chase Anderson
Born: November 30, 1987 in Wichita Falls, Texas School: University of Oklahoma Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 3-1 IP: 45.1 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.43 BABIP: .299 WHIP: 1.06 K:BB: 48:13 GO:AO: 1.43:1
Zephon: This is what I know about Chase Anderson outside of his stats: He doesn't have the biggest frame at 6'1'' and 175 pounds, but the Diamondbacks like the toughness and athleticism he brings to the table. He gets up to 92-93 mph and has three solid pitches. Personally I'd like to have seen him start off in Low-A Yakima, not rookie ball, as he's a little old for the level. Hopefully the Diamondbacks have him start out in Middle A South Bend next season. Looking at Anderson's actual debut season, he did very well. Anderson dominated the Pioneer League, holding opponents to a 2.38 ERA and an impressive 1.06 WHIP. His K:BB ratio was a very solid (almost) 4:1 and he has a slight groundball tendency. Overall, a very nice debut season, with room for growth. Normally, I'd knock down a grade for the potential for injury risk as in the case for Anderson, but technically that applies to every pitcher. Pitchers are fragile, and that's where the phrase TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) comes from. Grade: A (Short term A, Long term B+)
IHSB: The small frame and lack of ability to collect ground-balls scares me with Anderson, as reaching back and pulling 93 mph out of a 6'1'' body can't be easy on the arm. However, if the injuries manage to stay away, the numbers on Anderson look good. He doesn't walk a whole lot of guys, and K's over one per inning. He's a guy the organization is going to have to handle well, but is a high-risk, high-reward potential. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A, Long-term: B)
Round 11, Pick 336 - Scott Allen
Born: July 3, 1991 in Lyman, California School: Lyman HS Height: 6'1'' Weight: 165 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-0 IP: 17.2 ERA: 0.51 FIP: 2.58 BABIP: .210 WHIP: 0.91 K:BB: 16:7 GO:AO: 0.89:1
Zephon: One of the two high school arms taken by the Diamondbacks in the draft, Scott Allen dominated in his brief stint with Missoula, holding his opponent to a 0.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. I don't think any one can maintain that kind of performance over any length of time, and his 2.58 FIP, suggests that he's clearly due for some regression next year. But he does have a nice 2-1 K:BB ratio, and he's got a 8.15 K/9. I think once we see him pitch in a full seasons worth of games, we can get a more accurate judgement of his potential. He did have nice little run in Missoula. Grade: B+ (Short Term A, Long term: B)
IHSB: The BABIP is definitely going to regress against Allen, but a 0.51 ERA is always something nice and flashy to look at. If these seventeen innings are any indication, Allen is a strikeout guy, as his GO:AO suggests that reliance on his ability to induce ground balls is foolhardy. He'll need to reduce his walk rate, but given that he's an eighteen-year-old high school kid, Allen definitely has time to develop his command of the zone. A flashy and solid, but not great, year, with a bright future if he can cut back on his walks and continue to develop his stuff. One other concern, which drops his grade down a bit, is the 6'1'' frame, as it leads to questions as to just how much projectionability and velocity he can add to his fastball over the course of his development. Grade: B (Short-term: B-, Long-term: B+)
Round 12, Pick 366 - Charles Brewer
Born: April 7, 1988 in Paradise Valley, California School: UCLA Height: 6'4'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 7-2, 54.2IP ERA: 2.47 FIP: 2.96 BABIP: .295 WHIP: 1.06, K:BB: 61:15 GO:AO: 1.62:1
Zephon: Brewer is a big right handed pitcher who can pitch 90-94 MPH. There was some talk that he didn't really "fit in" at UCLA, and they made changes to his arm slot and delivery from his days pitching in high school. Brewer had a very nice debut season, with a dominant 2.47 ERA, and a first half Dan Haren-esque WHIP. His strike out to walk ratio is a very impressive 4:1, and he has a slight groundball tendency. Brewer is a possible sleeper candidate going into next year, especially if he finds the right groove in his arm slot and delivery. Grade: B+ (Short term: A Long Term: B)
IHSB: Zephon covered all of the questions revolving his days at UCLA, so all that's left is to deal with the great season the kid had. He worked as both a starter and reliever, although with much better raw results out of the 'pen (1.59 ERA in 10 appearances) than in the rotation (3.09 ERA in 7 starts). Nonetheless, the kid is big at 6'4'', has a great K:BB rate of 4:1, gets a little bit of help from ground balls, and actually walked batters at a less frequent rate as a starter (just 4 in 32 innings) than as a reliever (11 in 22.2 innings) with just a slight dip in strikeouts per inning (33/32 as a starter, 28/22.2 as a reliever), so my bet is that they'll try to keep sending him out there every fifth day due to the value of a starter being greater than that of a reliever. Great start for a 12th round pick. Grade: A- (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B+)
Round 24, Pick 726 - Brad Gemberling
Born: 12/09/1986 in Swarthmore, PA School: Princeton University Height: 6'1'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 0-1 IP: 42.0 ERA: 6.43 FIP: 3.53 BABIP: .416 WHIP: 1.81 K:BB 44:20 GO/AO 1.71
Zephon: Another victim of bad luck and bad defense, Gemberling did not pitch nearly as bad as his 6.43 ERA suggests. Yeah, his BB/9 was a pretty high 4.29, but his K/9 is a pretty darn good at 9.43. His FIP is a full 3 runs lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is an outrageously high .416. I would expect in the long term for the BABIP to drop and his ERA to follow suit. Expect this guy to improve next season. Grade: I can't really give this guy a grade. If I absolutely had to, it would be a C- overall.
IHSB: The strikeouts are sure nice, as is the case anytime you strike out more than one guy per inning, and the GO:AO also helps a little, but the walks have to come down. 2.2:1 isn't a great K:BB ratio for a relief arm, especially one who racks up as many K's as Gemberling did, and while bad luck certainly hurt Gemberling last year, you're asking for bad luck whenever you walk that many guys. But, of course, the BABIP will likely drop by at least 100 points, and the rest of his numbers will adjust accordingly. Next year will be the year where we really get a good feel for Gemberling and what he can really do, both in terms of luck and in terms of what he can do about reducing those walks. Also, given his propensity for K's and short frame, injuries always loom as a question. It's crazy to say this about someone who threw 42 innings this season, but... Grade: Incomplete
Round 27, Pick 816 - Jake Hale
Born: 12/11/1985 in Athens, OH School: Ohio State Height: 6'7'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 2-2 IP: 17.0 ERA: 5.29 FIP: 3.09 BABIP: .438 WHIP: 1.47 K:BB 14:6 GO/AO: 1.92
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 9.0 ERA: 6.00 FIP: 4.32 BABIP: .334 WHIP: 1.67 K:BB 10:2 GO/AO: 1.13
Zephon: All though his numbers at first glance look pretty ugly with the 5.29 ERA in Yakima and the 6.00 ERA in Missoula, once you dig deeper, this guy didn't pitch that bad, and was the victim of some extremely bad luck. His FIPs at both levels are a good 2 runs lower at each level. In addition his .428 BABIP in Yakima is just down right unlucky. His K:BB ratio combined at both levels is a pretty decent 3 to 1. Overall, I'd say this guy is a victim of bad luck, and I would expect his numbers to regress to the mean. Grade: Incomplete (not enough innings)
IHSB: Bad luck bites Hale as Zephon noted, especially at Yakima. The K/BBs are good, and everything else checks out. My buggest question is which of the GO/AO ratios are going to be the one Hale follows for his career. Regardless, though, he has a good frame, good metrics, and appears to be a decent relief arm to have stashed away. Grade: Incomplete
Round 28, Pick 846 - Brian Budrow
Born: 11/12/1986 in Glendale, Arizona School: University Of Utah Height: 6'3'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 3-3 IP: 34.0 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.70 BABIP: .306 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 28:12 GO/AO: 1.84
Zephon: This is a guy who put up some pretty impressive numbers for a guy who was drafted with the 846th pick. He's got a great ERA and there's not much of discrepency between it and his FIP. His WHIP is excellent, and his GA/AO is pretty nice. The K/BB is a solid 2.33, and would be even better if he could cut down the walks just a shade. He's right on track for age. Grade: B (Short Term: A- Long Term: B-)
IHSB: Some good numbers from Budrow, but my biggest question is what is he? The K-rate, 7.4 per 9 innings, isn't great for a power bullpen arm, while the GO:AO ratio isn't good enough for a sinkerballer bullpen arm. Also, walks too many guys at 3.2 per 9 innings. However, even with the walks, combining those two other numbers produces good results, as noted by Budrow's good season. It's just a matter of him being able to keep up his hybrid act, and if he can't, what he is going to be. Grade: B (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B-)
Round 31, Pick 936 - Keith Cantwell
Born: 09/09/1987 in Tinton Falls, New Jersey School: Seton Hall University Height: 6'5'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-Level Missoula: W-L: 4-0 IP: 35.0 ERA: 4.11 FIP: 1.74 BABIP: .390 WHIP: 1.17 K:BB 44:5
Zephon: Although Keith Cantwell is a late round pick who's a little old for Rookie Level ball, This is a guy who has an 11.31 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, and an almost 9:1 strike out to walk ratio. Oh and his HR/9? It's 0.26. Those are some serious video game numbers, yet somehow this guy has a 4.11 ERA. Once you look up his 1.74 FIP and .390 BABIP, it's clear this guy was the victim of some terrible bad luck. And to top it off, dude was drafted with the 936th pick of the draft. The only real knock is his age, which at 22 is a bit old for rookie ball. I'd expect him to skip a level and start out at Mid-A South Bend next year. I'm not sure about the long term future of this guy, but i think he could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft. Grade: A- (Short Term A-, Long Term B+)
IHSB: Cantwell's a guy with some really frightening metrics. A K:BB ratio of 8.8:1 is something I've never seen. It's really a shame that BABIP decided to screw him, because the average fan wouldn't recognize how great of a season Cantwell had because his ERA is so mediocre. But this is a guy who really belongs in either South Bend or Visalia to start 2010, a level more appropriate with both his skill level and his age. Also has a great frame at 6'5'', meaning he could easily continue to develop and be a major-league bullpen piece someday. For where he was drafted, it's impossible not to say that this was an absolute heist. Guys taken in the 31st round aren't supposed to have any chance of a future in the majors, and this guy has a pretty legitimate one, which is all you could hope for. Grade: A (Short-term: A, Long-term: A-)
We'll continue our look at the remaining pitchers taken in the draft with pitchers Harvil-Wilson. No real conclusion on the pitchers this week, for that you'll have to wait until next week. Thanks to IHSB, and everyone involved in the making of these articles. In addition, a special thanks goes out to you, the reader for your comments and constructive criticism.
For this, the fourth part of the piece, we'll begin to look at the arms added to the system, eighteen in all. How to break up these picks was perhaps the biggest dilemma for this week's piece. It's impossible to know which guys will end up as starters and which will end up as relievers, so that distinction was a no-go. Lefty vs. righty would have resulted in two really lopsided articles, with the Snakes picking fourteen righties to just four lefties. So we got creative, and first split the article alphabetically, so that the first article will cover A-Hale, and the second article will cover Harvil-Z. Then, within each article, the prospects are organized from highest to lowest draft position. It's not a perfect organization, but it works well enough, especially when given the alternative options.
Star-divide
The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success. It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.
Baseball is one of those rare sports where the ultimate team mentality is directly clashing with one person's determination to dominate a contest on his own. No one offensive player, or even no pair of offensive players, can win game after game single-handedly, as Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton so aptly demonstrated last season. Offense is a team collaboration in baseball, and requires a stringing-together of multiple successful at-bats in order to effectively produce runs. Pitching, on the other hand, is completely opposite of this. Sure, a good defense can help a pitcher out, but the defense cannot affect the pitches being thrown. Even the best offenses can be effectively shut down by a dominant pitcher, and an amazing start can mesmerize a crowd. And, for Arizona, that has been a point well-made by some of the dominant starters to grace the mound for the Snakes.
The first four that will be, and should be, mentioned are the two duos, co-World Series MVP's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling from the marvellous 2001 season, and two guys on the roster today who, when at their best, are bona fide Cy Young contenders, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. However, what deserves to be noted about these two pairs of aces is how they were attained by the organization. Johnson was signed as a free agent after a late-season trade to the Astros, and Schilling was acquired from Philadelphia for three young but mostly big-league ready players (Travis Lee, Vincente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa) and Omar Daal. On the other hand, Webb was developed as a prospect after being an absolutely astounding find in the eighth round of the 2000 draft (which leaves us to wonder why we don't now take a pitcher every year in the eighth round out of moral obligation), and Haren was acquired in 2007 along with fringe-average reliever Connor Robertson (later traded for Scott Schoeneweis) from Oakland in exchange for six prospects (Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Chris Carter) who are just now starting to seep into the major leagues.
Sifting below the cream, you can also find a number of quality #3/#4 types who have hit the rubber for Arizona, including Brian Anderson, who is third on Arizona's innings-pitched list behind Johnson and Webb, Miguel Batista, fifth on that list after Schilling, Doug Davis at #6, Daal at #7, and Andy Benes at #8. As for relievers, we've had great luck with young, inexpensive back-of-the-pen options Byung-Hyun Kim, Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Mike Koplove, and Juan Cruz. Any way you slice it, pitching has typically been a position of strength for Arizona.
Next season, however, may be a different story. The rotation has one big hole at the #4 slot, one big question in whether or not Brandon Webb will be able to return close to his #1 form as our #2 starter, and one big competition amongst Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augenstein, and Cesar Valdez for the #5 slot. The discussion has been rampant on the 'Pit as to who the team will sign for that #4 slot, with Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Pedro Martinez, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Eric Bedard, and even Chris Capuano's scattered ashes all being tossed out (no pun intended... okay, yes it was) as signing possibilities. Perhaps the only certainty about this situation is that we will sign a guy, probably later on in the bidding process when some of the market has diminished and the guys who are left are scrambling to try to find a roster that needs them.
Further, the system has no real impact guys close to major-league ready now that star prospect Jarrod Parker is going to be shelved for all of 2010 recovering from TJ surgery, although the organization does have a fair number of #4/#5 potential arms in the upper ranks. In the upper levels of the system aside from the aforementioned foursome, amongst whom only Augenstein probably has the potential to be anything above a #4 guy (and even that will require some serious work on his secondary offerings), Tony Barnette could be ready to be a #5 guy in 2011, Matt Torra could see a rotation in 2011 or 2012, and while Barry Enright's ERA dropped across the hardest jump in the minors, his metrics need a major rebound year to get him back to being a top prospect as he was a year ago (K:BB fell from over 4:1 to 2.8:1). Tom Layne pitched well in the AFL and can be either a starter or reliever. Wes Roemer proved his dominance over the California League before having a solid season at Mobile. Further down in the system there is some promise, with both Trevor Harden and Pat McAnaney ending the season with decent numbers at Visalia. Bryan Shaw's metrics at Visalia indicate he was the victim of some serious bad luck, and he still had some moderate success as a starter. Wade Miley had a solid season at South Bend, and will start at Visalia next season.
Relief arms are also aplenty, and even after trading away Dan Schlereth, they still have a few lefties stashed away with Leyson Septimo and Jordan Norberto having.... interesting.... years in the minors, and Clay Zavada's big debut season solidifying the left-handed relief contingent to the point where the organization felt comfortable in trading away LOOGY-in-the-making Scott Maine in the Aaron Heilman trade. Roque Mercedes looks like another great piece added from the Felipe Lopez trade, and Bryan Henry had a good year at Visalia. Reid Mahon lost the ground-ball-inducing ability on his sinker, and needs to find it quickly if he's going to rebound and have major-league value. 40-man roster men Daniel Stange and Kyler Newby each have a lot of work to do in not a lot of time if they're going to reach the majors, in both cases involving the finding of lost K-rates. Bryan Woodall had a good season in South Bend, striking out ten per nine innings. Josh Ellis was lights out in Mobile, but while the wheels fell off in Reno, the lack of any metric spikes leads me to believe foul luck was a factor. Finally, Billy Spottiswood had a peculiar (and luck-filled) season, being promoted from Hi-A to AAA to provide rest for Reno's arms, and despite metric spikes and dips all over (K-rate drop, BB-rate spike, HR-rate spike), his WHIP fell, as did his ERA.
Yet, in drafting arms, there really isn't much of a pattern that can be adhered to. Teams look for a few things - projectionability (a tall body with wide shoulders that indicate the potential to add extra bulk and hence extra velocity on a pitcher's fastball - also an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury), smooth pitching mechanics (typically an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury, although I've heard recent studies say mechanics have little indication on a pitcher's risk of injury), and, of course, what a pitcher already has - the stuff he posesses, his command, poise, feel for pitching, and production in high school and/or college. Even more difficult is knowing what role a pitcher will end up in. For an example that has already been covered to a slight extent, a guy who begins his minor-league career as a potential left-handed ace (Scott Maine) can wind up with LOOGY-upside by the time he reaches AAA (hence why we dealt him in the aforementioned Aaron Heilman trade). You just never know, as so much can go wrong with a pitching prospect, even the best of them (see - aforementioned Jarrod Parker).
Really, the only thing a team can do is try to mix a combination of college arms with polish and shorter paths to the majors with higher-upside high school arms who have a bigger risk of injuries due to the need for a longer development time in the minors. However, the D-Backs' philosophy in the early rounds tends to lean towards college arms, with past arms such as Daniel Schlereth (University of Arizona - 1st round, 2008), Wade Miley (Southeastern Louisiana University - 1st round, 2008), Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton - 1st round, 2007), Max Scherzer (University of Missouri - 1st round, 2006), Brooks Brown (University of Georgia - 1st round, 2006), and Matt Torra (University of Massachusetts - 1st round, 2005) all being high picks from colleges. Not to say that the team will refuse to select a high school arm early, but typically if they're going to do so, they look for some polish in the player they're drafting, as was the case with Jarrod Parker (Norwell HS in Ossian, Indiana - 1st round, 2007), whose minor-league pitching career began in Mid-A South Bend, and who had made it to AA Mobile before elbow injuries ended his season in '09. This philosophy stems from the team's budget consciousness, as they look for safer bets to spend their money on in the early rounds of the draft so as to not have a complete disaster cost them a multi-million dollar signing bonus without any return. And, indeed, this philosophy remained intact for the '09 class, as the first four arms taken, Mike Belfiore, Eric Smith, Bradin Hagens, and Chase Anderson, were all from the college ranks. So, without further ado:
1/2 Sandwich Round, Pick 45 - Michael Belfiore
Born: October 3, 1988 in Commack, New York School: Boston College Height: 6'3'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Left
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 2-2 IP: 58.0 ERA: 2.17 FIP: 2.48 BABIP: .344 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 55:13 GO:AO: 1.85:1
Zephon: Michael Belfiore is a hard throwing left handed pitcher who'll hopefully rise through the system quickly, and looking at his excellent debut season, it looks he might just do that. Baseball America ranked Belfiore as our number seven prospect. Looking at his numbers, there's not a single thing that I don't like. He's got an excellent 2.17 ERA to go along with a mighty fine 1.24 WHIP. In addition, he's got an excellent almost 5:1 strike out to walk ratio. An excellent debut season all around. look for him in High A Visalia next season, or possibly AA Mobile by season's end. In my opinion, Belfiore is a top 10 prospect, and one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the Diamondbacks farm system. Grade A (Short term: A Long term: A+)
IHSB: Mike Belfiore cemented his status as one of the top-10, prospects in the D-Backs system with his absolutely ridiculous debut season in Missoula. There's so much to like. The first-half-Haren-esque ERA. The 1.24 WHIP. The K:BB. How often he induces ground ball outs with his heavy fastball despite definitely being a strikeout pitcher. Even the fact that he throwed left-handed, which seems to add an extra couple million dollars on a free-agent pricetag. The only things counting against Belfiore are that we expected a good season from a guy who was the 45th pick, was 20 years old after some time in college ball, and was in rookie-ball with a bunch of high school kids, but by all accounts Belfiore destroyed any expectations the team may have had for him, and was absolutely a man amongst boys. Consider this deeper look into the numbers: the team's plan involved Belfiore starting with a few relief outings before going into the rotation. In three relief appearances, he accumulated a 7.36 ERA. However, knowing his season ERA, you know where this is headed. In his 11 starts following the bullpen disaster, Belfiore absolutely dominated in the role he's more accustomed to, and will be in for his career, posting a 1.82 ERA. Expect him to certainly skip Low-A, and earn himself a promotion to Hi-A by mid-season if he lights up the Midwest League the way he lit up the Pioneer League. Or, perhaps the Jarrod Parker promotion track could be applied to Belfiore (second season begins in Hi-A, quick promotion to AA if performance merits it). As a side note, he also played first base in college and has drawn Micah Owings comparisons because of his ability to win more games than his ERA would merit due to helping himself with his bat, another tool that will keep him in a rotation. Grade: A (Short-term: A-, Long-term: A)
Round 6, Pick 186 - Bradin Hagens
Born: May 12, 1989 in Denair, California School: Merced JC (California) Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 23.2 ERA: 3.42 FIP: 2.99 BABIP: .350 WHIP: 1.48 K:BB: 13:6 GO:AO: 2.56:1
Zephon: Although I can't find a scouting report on Hagens, I do know that the Diamondbacks like his arm and the sink he gets on his fastball. Hagens is a groundball pitcher.The club saw him throw up to 94 mph and will hope he can develop his secondary stuff. 23.2 innings pitched doesn't give you that much of a sample size to work with, but I'll try my hand at grading this guy anyway. 3.42 ERA is below league average, the whip is a little high, and the strike out to walk ratio is decent, not great. He's got a nice GO/AO ratio as well. He does get extra points for being young, however. This is a guy I need to see pitch for a full season. Grade: B (Short term B, Long term B)
IHSB: Well, there are certainly two types of really successful pitchers: the first type is like Belfiore, where stuff leads to strikeouts, which leads to BABIP not resulting in a pitcher's demise. The second type is represented by Hagens - ground ball pitchers who rely on the fact that BABIP on a lazy ground ball to the shortstop is pretty close to zero to get outs. Hagens had a decent GO:AO ratio last season from the sink he gets on his fastball, and despite a pretty scary WHIP, a guy getting that many groundouts isn't going to have that high of a BABIP, leading me to believe that some bad luck bit at Hagens last year and that the scary WHIP will go down a little. His frame is a bit small for a pitcher, but if you're going to try to do it at 6'1'', relying on sink rather than overpowering stuff is probably the way to go unless you want to blow out an elbow (see: Jarrod Parker). He's got a few things working for him going into next season, likely at Yakima. Grade: B- (Short-term: C+ Long-term: B-)
Round 9, Pick 276 - Chase Anderson
Born: November 30, 1987 in Wichita Falls, Texas School: University of Oklahoma Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 3-1 IP: 45.1 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.43 BABIP: .299 WHIP: 1.06 K:BB: 48:13 GO:AO: 1.43:1
Zephon: This is what I know about Chase Anderson outside of his stats: He doesn't have the biggest frame at 6'1'' and 175 pounds, but the Diamondbacks like the toughness and athleticism he brings to the table. He gets up to 92-93 mph and has three solid pitches. Personally I'd like to have seen him start off in Low-A Yakima, not rookie ball, as he's a little old for the level. Hopefully the Diamondbacks have him start out in Middle A South Bend next season. Looking at Anderson's actual debut season, he did very well. Anderson dominated the Pioneer League, holding opponents to a 2.38 ERA and an impressive 1.06 WHIP. His K:BB ratio was a very solid (almost) 4:1 and he has a slight groundball tendency. Overall, a very nice debut season, with room for growth. Normally, I'd knock down a grade for the potential for injury risk as in the case for Anderson, but technically that applies to every pitcher. Pitchers are fragile, and that's where the phrase TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) comes from. Grade: A (Short term A, Long term B+)
IHSB: The small frame and lack of ability to collect ground-balls scares me with Anderson, as reaching back and pulling 93 mph out of a 6'1'' body can't be easy on the arm. However, if the injuries manage to stay away, the numbers on Anderson look good. He doesn't walk a whole lot of guys, and K's over one per inning. He's a guy the organization is going to have to handle well, but is a high-risk, high-reward potential. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A, Long-term: B)
Round 11, Pick 336 - Scott Allen
Born: July 3, 1991 in Lyman, California School: Lyman HS Height: 6'1'' Weight: 165 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-0 IP: 17.2 ERA: 0.51 FIP: 2.58 BABIP: .210 WHIP: 0.91 K:BB: 16:7 GO:AO: 0.89:1
Zephon: One of the two high school arms taken by the Diamondbacks in the draft, Scott Allen dominated in his brief stint with Missoula, holding his opponent to a 0.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. I don't think any one can maintain that kind of performance over any length of time, and his 2.58 FIP, suggests that he's clearly due for some regression next year. But he does have a nice 2-1 K:BB ratio, and he's got a 8.15 K/9. I think once we see him pitch in a full seasons worth of games, we can get a more accurate judgement of his potential. He did have nice little run in Missoula. Grade: B+ (Short Term A, Long term: B)
IHSB: The BABIP is definitely going to regress against Allen, but a 0.51 ERA is always something nice and flashy to look at. If these seventeen innings are any indication, Allen is a strikeout guy, as his GO:AO suggests that reliance on his ability to induce ground balls is foolhardy. He'll need to reduce his walk rate, but given that he's an eighteen-year-old high school kid, Allen definitely has time to develop his command of the zone. A flashy and solid, but not great, year, with a bright future if he can cut back on his walks and continue to develop his stuff. One other concern, which drops his grade down a bit, is the 6'1'' frame, as it leads to questions as to just how much projectionability and velocity he can add to his fastball over the course of his development. Grade: B (Short-term: B-, Long-term: B+)
Round 12, Pick 366 - Charles Brewer
Born: April 7, 1988 in Paradise Valley, California School: UCLA Height: 6'4'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 7-2, 54.2IP ERA: 2.47 FIP: 2.96 BABIP: .295 WHIP: 1.06, K:BB: 61:15 GO:AO: 1.62:1
Zephon: Brewer is a big right handed pitcher who can pitch 90-94 MPH. There was some talk that he didn't really "fit in" at UCLA, and they made changes to his arm slot and delivery from his days pitching in high school. Brewer had a very nice debut season, with a dominant 2.47 ERA, and a first half Dan Haren-esque WHIP. His strike out to walk ratio is a very impressive 4:1, and he has a slight groundball tendency. Brewer is a possible sleeper candidate going into next year, especially if he finds the right groove in his arm slot and delivery. Grade: B+ (Short term: A Long Term: B)
IHSB: Zephon covered all of the questions revolving his days at UCLA, so all that's left is to deal with the great season the kid had. He worked as both a starter and reliever, although with much better raw results out of the 'pen (1.59 ERA in 10 appearances) than in the rotation (3.09 ERA in 7 starts). Nonetheless, the kid is big at 6'4'', has a great K:BB rate of 4:1, gets a little bit of help from ground balls, and actually walked batters at a less frequent rate as a starter (just 4 in 32 innings) than as a reliever (11 in 22.2 innings) with just a slight dip in strikeouts per inning (33/32 as a starter, 28/22.2 as a reliever), so my bet is that they'll try to keep sending him out there every fifth day due to the value of a starter being greater than that of a reliever. Great start for a 12th round pick. Grade: A- (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B+)
Round 24, Pick 726 - Brad Gemberling
Born: 12/09/1986 in Swarthmore, PA School: Princeton University Height: 6'1'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 0-1 IP: 42.0 ERA: 6.43 FIP: 3.53 BABIP: .416 WHIP: 1.81 K:BB 44:20 GO/AO 1.71
Zephon: Another victim of bad luck and bad defense, Gemberling did not pitch nearly as bad as his 6.43 ERA suggests. Yeah, his BB/9 was a pretty high 4.29, but his K/9 is a pretty darn good at 9.43. His FIP is a full 3 runs lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is an outrageously high .416. I would expect in the long term for the BABIP to drop and his ERA to follow suit. Expect this guy to improve next season. Grade: I can't really give this guy a grade. If I absolutely had to, it would be a C- overall.
IHSB: The strikeouts are sure nice, as is the case anytime you strike out more than one guy per inning, and the GO:AO also helps a little, but the walks have to come down. 2.2:1 isn't a great K:BB ratio for a relief arm, especially one who racks up as many K's as Gemberling did, and while bad luck certainly hurt Gemberling last year, you're asking for bad luck whenever you walk that many guys. But, of course, the BABIP will likely drop by at least 100 points, and the rest of his numbers will adjust accordingly. Next year will be the year where we really get a good feel for Gemberling and what he can really do, both in terms of luck and in terms of what he can do about reducing those walks. Also, given his propensity for K's and short frame, injuries always loom as a question. It's crazy to say this about someone who threw 42 innings this season, but... Grade: Incomplete
Round 27, Pick 816 - Jake Hale
Born: 12/11/1985 in Athens, OH School: Ohio State Height: 6'7'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 2-2 IP: 17.0 ERA: 5.29 FIP: 3.09 BABIP: .438 WHIP: 1.47 K:BB 14:6 GO/AO: 1.92
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 9.0 ERA: 6.00 FIP: 4.32 BABIP: .334 WHIP: 1.67 K:BB 10:2 GO/AO: 1.13
Zephon: All though his numbers at first glance look pretty ugly with the 5.29 ERA in Yakima and the 6.00 ERA in Missoula, once you dig deeper, this guy didn't pitch that bad, and was the victim of some extremely bad luck. His FIPs at both levels are a good 2 runs lower at each level. In addition his .428 BABIP in Yakima is just down right unlucky. His K:BB ratio combined at both levels is a pretty decent 3 to 1. Overall, I'd say this guy is a victim of bad luck, and I would expect his numbers to regress to the mean. Grade: Incomplete (not enough innings)
IHSB: Bad luck bites Hale as Zephon noted, especially at Yakima. The K/BBs are good, and everything else checks out. My buggest question is which of the GO/AO ratios are going to be the one Hale follows for his career. Regardless, though, he has a good frame, good metrics, and appears to be a decent relief arm to have stashed away. Grade: Incomplete
Round 28, Pick 846 - Brian Budrow
Born: 11/12/1986 in Glendale, Arizona School: University Of Utah Height: 6'3'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 3-3 IP: 34.0 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.70 BABIP: .306 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 28:12 GO/AO: 1.84
Zephon: This is a guy who put up some pretty impressive numbers for a guy who was drafted with the 846th pick. He's got a great ERA and there's not much of discrepency between it and his FIP. His WHIP is excellent, and his GA/AO is pretty nice. The K/BB is a solid 2.33, and would be even better if he could cut down the walks just a shade. He's right on track for age. Grade: B (Short Term: A- Long Term: B-)
IHSB: Some good numbers from Budrow, but my biggest question is what is he? The K-rate, 7.4 per 9 innings, isn't great for a power bullpen arm, while the GO:AO ratio isn't good enough for a sinkerballer bullpen arm. Also, walks too many guys at 3.2 per 9 innings. However, even with the walks, combining those two other numbers produces good results, as noted by Budrow's good season. It's just a matter of him being able to keep up his hybrid act, and if he can't, what he is going to be. Grade: B (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B-)
Round 31, Pick 936 - Keith Cantwell
Born: 09/09/1987 in Tinton Falls, New Jersey School: Seton Hall University Height: 6'5'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-Level Missoula: W-L: 4-0 IP: 35.0 ERA: 4.11 FIP: 1.74 BABIP: .390 WHIP: 1.17 K:BB 44:5
Zephon: Although Keith Cantwell is a late round pick who's a little old for Rookie Level ball, This is a guy who has an 11.31 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, and an almost 9:1 strike out to walk ratio. Oh and his HR/9? It's 0.26. Those are some serious video game numbers, yet somehow this guy has a 4.11 ERA. Once you look up his 1.74 FIP and .390 BABIP, it's clear this guy was the victim of some terrible bad luck. And to top it off, dude was drafted with the 936th pick of the draft. The only real knock is his age, which at 22 is a bit old for rookie ball. I'd expect him to skip a level and start out at Mid-A South Bend next year. I'm not sure about the long term future of this guy, but i think he could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft. Grade: A- (Short Term A-, Long Term B+)
IHSB: Cantwell's a guy with some really frightening metrics. A K:BB ratio of 8.8:1 is something I've never seen. It's really a shame that BABIP decided to screw him, because the average fan wouldn't recognize how great of a season Cantwell had because his ERA is so mediocre. But this is a guy who really belongs in either South Bend or Visalia to start 2010, a level more appropriate with both his skill level and his age. Also has a great frame at 6'5'', meaning he could easily continue to develop and be a major-league bullpen piece someday. For where he was drafted, it's impossible not to say that this was an absolute heist. Guys taken in the 31st round aren't supposed to have any chance of a future in the majors, and this guy has a pretty legitimate one, which is all you could hope for. Grade: A (Short-term: A, Long-term: A-)
We'll continue our look at the remaining pitchers taken in the draft with pitchers Harvil-Wilson. No real conclusion on the pitchers this week, for that you'll have to wait until next week. Thanks to IHSB, and everyone involved in the making of these articles. In addition, a special thanks goes out to you, the reader for your comments and constructive criticism.
December 2, 2009 - 2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Three: Outfielders and Catchers (Co-Written w/ Zephon)
The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Kieth Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.
For week three of our 5 part prospect extravaganza we're looking at outfielders and catchers. I know someone is going to ask why we chose to stick the outfielders with the catchers, so I guess i should explain. The Dbacks just didn't draft all that many outfielders or catchers, so we chose to put them together to make the articles even in size. Next week we're looking at the first half of the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 Amateur-opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.
Star-divide
The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success.
It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.
When you discuss outfielders for the Diamondbacks, the great trio the Snakes trotted out in the 2001 World Series season has to be mentioned immediately - Luis Gonzalez in left, Steve Finley in center, and Reggie Sanders, who we let leave the following offseason, in right. Prior to the arrival of the 2009 Turbo-Charged Justin Upton, these three were arguably (with the debate between Sanders and Danny Bautista being a toss-up) the best players the Diamondbacks had ever had at the three respective positions. Runners-up to the Big Three include Shawn Green, Bautista, Jose Guillen, and Devon White.
Ever heard of Chris Jones, Hensley Meulens, and Matt Mieske? We thought not. Well, they're also just a small sampling of the numerous unheard-of outfielders the D-Backs have trotted out in their short history. And for 2010 we have a promising group of young outfielders, with the likely starters being that aforementioned 22-year-old guy named Upton in right, 26-year-old Chris Young in center, and a platoon of 26-year-old Conor Jackson and 22-year-old Gerardo Parra in left. And there's a healthy competition for the fifth outfield spot quietly stirring between Alex Romero, Cole Gillespie, and the one man almost nobody wants to see remain in a Diamondbacks uniform, Eric Byrnes.
So the major-league outfield appears set for quite a while, and it's a good thing that it is, as there really isn't much talent other than Gillespie in the upper-levels of the minors ready to fill in. AAA, if Gillespie is headed to the major-league roster, will contain no outfielders of note, unless Romero, Cyle Hankerd, and Chris Rahl put a banana in your pants. AA will be where some of the higher-upside guys in the system start next season, most noteably Collin Cowgill and Ollie "Lightning" Linton, of completely different skill sets, but equally potent. Cowgill is a good power hitter despite his 5'9'' frame, and can get on base. Linton has almost no home run power, although he used his ridiculous speed to accumulate 28 doubles and a whopping 10 triples last season, reached base at a .394 mark, and stole 28 bases. Further, Linton's speed makes him a plus defender in center, and he plays with the kind of reckless abandon that fans used to love about Byrnes.
They may ready for the majors just in the nick of time, as Cowgill, a more advanced hitter than Linton, could step in to backup/platoon with Parra when Co-Jack is a free agent in 2012, and Linton could be ready to start when CY is a free agent in 2014 (team has option for 2015 season). But the team clearly didn't want to count on Cowgill has their only plan to replace Jackson, especially given the questions surrounding whether or not Jackson will return to his old levels of production, so it decided to use a few of its earlier picks in the draft on college outfielders with advanced bats and tool sets who could rise quickly and provide insurance for the outfield. Then, to add a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect to the lower ranks of the system, the team picked tool-shed Keon Broxton after solidifying the quick-rising ranks of the system.
Now, to move on to the catchers. While usually a difficult position to solidify for many years, catcher has been a fairly stable position for the Diamondbacks throughout their history. While we haven't had enough luck to find a Jorge Posada or Joe Mauer with a plus bat for the position for a dozen years, and we played too well last season to bank on Bryce Harper in the 2010 draft, we have been able to get six years (and counting, for now) from Chris Snyder, five years from Damian Miller, four years from Kelly Stinnett (although in two stints with the team, from '98-'00 and '05), and one real stop-gap starter in Johnny Estrada. Further, we've even received some good consistency with backups, from Robby Hammock to Rod Barajas to Chad Moeller. And, even though Snyder's clock in Arizona may be winding down, it appears that we have ourselves set at the position for many years once again with Miguel Montero's breakout season and a good cameo from John Hester, who appears to be a fairly capable backup for years to come.
So, even though the system lacks any real high-upside catchers outside of 20-year-old Rossmel Perez, especially with the lackluster seasons just put in by former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton, the team didn't need to spend a high pick on a backstop. However, it is important to note that minor-league catchers are very important commodities. It is in the minor leagues that catchers begin to actually call games for pitchers, and the way a catcher handles a top prospect pitcher may have a huge impact on that pitcher's development. Therefore, it is crucial to have a solid group of organizational catchers who can call a good game for your pitchers and utilize each pitcher's strengths. So, while the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively.
Round 1, Pick 17 - A.J. Pollock
Born: December 5, 1987 in Hebron, Connecticut School: University of Notre Dame Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200LBs Position: Center Field Bats: Right Throws: Right
Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 255 AVG/OBP/SLG: .271/.319/.376 XBH: 12 2Bs/3 3B/3 HRs K:BB: 36:16 ISO: .106 BABIP: .306 SB:CS 10:4 Errors: 1
Zephon: Pollock was one of our "safe" picks at 17 overall, a college bat that's should move quickly through the minors. Pollock is considered one of the better pure college hitters in this draft. He's a gap to gap line drive hitter who won't hit a ton of homers, maybe 10 to 15 at most. However, he does make up for that with his speed on the base paths. As he gets more experience he should become an excellent stolen base threat. Since he's recently converted from shortstop to the outfield, he still has a lot to learn defensively , but he should end up being a plus defender. Pollock got off to a slow start, heated up in July, had a poor August, and then had an excellent September to finish the year. Although his on base percentage isn't all that great, he does have a pretty solid 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. Pollock's slugging percentage was really dragged down by the miserable August. Overall, I think Pollock had a pretty solid debut, and I think it'll be interesting to see how he does next year in (most likely) Visalia. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B)
IHSB: The way to describe the first pro season for the most oddly named man alive (Allen Lorenz Pollock = A.J. Pollock?) is solid but unspectacular, which is disappointing given that the organization expected him to rip through Mid-A South Bend given that Midwest League Competition wasn't foreign to Pollock, given that Notre Dame plays an exhibition game against the SilverHawks at the beginning of each season. He’ll nevertheless rise to Visalia because the organization wants to push him through quickly after a standout career and Notre Dame, and his age requires this for his top-prospect standing. Still a top-ten guy for the organization with his tools (speed, good contact bat, fielding, decent arm, light power) and occasional encouraging flashes of brilliance, but needs to show more consistency (or maybe some BABIP regression - his number for South Bend was .303, which, given his speed, may be low for Pollock), especially since the California League, which he’ll be entering, is a hitter’s paradise (although not quite to the proportions of the PCL). The acquisition of Tony Abreu likely means that the middle infield of the future is jammed up with Abreu, Taylor Harbin, and Pedro Ciriaco, so the once-possible move to second-base, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would have made Pollock's bat more valuable and saved outfield spots for power hitters, Justin Upton, and Chris Young's contract, now becomes nearly a complete a non-possibility unless the team starts to clear a couple prospects for major-leaguers at next year's or 2011's trade deadline. Good news with the stay in the outfield for Pollock is that his defense there is plus, as can be derived from his tool set. It can be thought of this way: you can get a plus bat with solid defense at second, or a solid bat with plus defense in center field. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B-)
Round 2, Pick 64 - Marc Krauss
Born: October 5, 1987 in Deshler, Ohio School: Ohio U Height: 6'3'' Weight: 235 Position: Left Field Bats: Left Throws: Right
Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 115 AVG/OBP/SLG: .304/.377/.478 XBH: 12 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs K:BB: 21:14 ISO: .174 BABIP: .359 Errors: 1
Zephon: With Justin Upton manning right field for as long as we can hopefully hold on to him, and Chris Young signed till 2013, left field is going to have a lot of guys competing for the job the next few years until someone completely locks down the position. Unfortunately for Marc Krauss, there's already Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and A.J. Pollock ahead of him competing for the job. In addition, that doesn't even factor in a guy like Keon Broxton who's less projectionable, or guys like Borchering who may end up getting moved to the outfield. Getting past that, Marc Krauss put up a very nice season in South Bend, with an above average batting, on base, slugging, and isolated slugging percentages. I'd like to see a few more homers out of him next season honestly, all though I don't mind a high BA doubles hitter (see Conor Jackson). He's got a very solid almost 3:2 K:BB ratio, not too many strikeouts. For the season, Krauss was 21, a touch younger than league average. Hopefully he'll be able to move through the system quickly. Grade B+ (Short term: B Long Term: B+)
IHSB: There were two big concerns about Marc Krauss going into his first professional season. First was how he would handle the transition from aluminum bats and crappy, in-conference pitching to wood bats and good, professional-level pitching. Welp (misspelling intended for dramaticish effect), so much for that little dilemma. Second was where, and how well, could he play defense. Sadly, that one still hasn't been quite figured out. Nonetheless, he raked in his time in Mid-A fresh out of college, so it wouldn't be at all far-fetched if he ends up mashing the hitter-friendly California League and ends up in Mobile by the end of next season. Still, it's in cases like this where being an American League team would be really helpful. Especially since the position it appears he is most likely going to end up playing, left field (since right field is currently and hopefully forever-ly manned by a man named Upton), is home to Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra (who is only going to be 23 next season to Krauss' 22) in the majors and guys like Cole Gillespie, Collin Cowgill, and South Bend teammate A.J. Pollock in the minors. Could definitely see this being a high-quality bat used as a trade chip in a year or two. Grade: B- (Short-term B, Long-term: C+)
Round 3, Pick 95 - Keon Broxton
Born: May 07, 1990 in Lakeland, Florida School: Santa Fe (Fla.) CC Height: 6'3'' Weight: 187 Position: Center Field Bats: Rights Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 272abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .246/.302/.474 XBH: 11 2B/9 3B/11 HRs K:BB: 93:19 ISO: .228 BABIP: .333 SB:CS: 6:1 Errors: 4
Zephon: First, I must note that Keon Broxton is NOT related to the Dodgers reliever. Keon Broxton is a player I'm probably a little too high on. I seem to always end up loving players that share my birthday(See Conor Jackson). Broxton is a multi-tooled outfielder who was raw but fast-improving during his junior college season. Physical comparisons have ranged from Rondell White to Matt Kemp. His strike zone judgement is sketchy, but it's obvious from his numbers that he not only has some serious power, but some serious wheels as well. I think this guy is definitely a diamond in the rough. As IHSB notes, he's basically Chris Young. If this guy figures out the strike zone, he could be something special. Take a look at his XBH numbers, especially the ridiculous 9 triples. Then look at his excellent .228 ISO. This is a guy I think you should be keeping an eye on over the next couple years. Grade: B (Short Term: B Long term: B+)
IHSB: Although it's worth noting that Zephon has a moderately unwarranted solid man-crush on Keon Broxton, it's not like Keon Broxton is bad. Quite the contrary - he plays a solid center field, has wheels, hits for power, and strikes out a ton. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, we've found Chris Young again. He's just 19 years old, just finished slugging all over the Pioneer League, and will definitely be in line for a slow path through Yakima next season to work on those on-base skills. It'll take a lot of work, but if this guy figures out that his bat doesn't need to go below his knees or above the letters, he'll do some special things. Grade: B+ (Short-term: B, Long-Term: B+)
Round 10, pick 306 - Tyson Van Winkle
Born: February 2, 1988 In Vancouver, Washington School: Gonzaga Height: 6'1'' Weight: 190 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: ABs: 156 AVG/OBP/SLG: .244/.367/.308 XBH: 10 2B K:BB: 35:25 ISO: .064 BABIP: .314 SB:CS 4:2
Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 17 AVG/OBP/SLG: .059/.111/.059 XBH: None K:BB: 2:1 ISO: .000 BABIP: .067
Zephon: First I have to say it: Tyson Van Winkle is a funny name. Now to the analysis. At first glance, Tyson had a relatively mediocre season, but he did have two bright spots: His on base percentage in Yakima was 123 points higher than his batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a pretty decent 7:5 ratio. I'm not even going to bothering discussing his time in South Bend, other than the fact that it appears he was the victim of extremely bad luck, sporting a BABIP of .067. Winkle is the highest drafted catcher in the Dbacks' 09 draft. With the offensive skillset he's shown, i would think he'd best succeed as a defense first catcher in the mold of Chris Snyder, a guy who can draw walks and maybe hit for a little pop, although the latter he has yet to show. Grade: C (Short term: C- Long term C)
IHSB: 17 at-bats is too few to make any judgment on, so people should only bother to look at the Yakima numbers. From those numbers, we find one thing that Van Winkle needs to really improve upon in order to make himself a solid catching prospect. He needs to find some sort of power that can make him into an OPS "Moneyball" guy (hearkening to Oakland GM Billy Beane's book about deeper statistical analysis of baseball players, although the original definition of a "Moneyball" guy has been stretched to be anybody with a high OPS and low BA), the type of player that casual fans will hate because he'll have low batting averages, but the type of guy that the stat nerds (like me) will like because he gets the job done without making a whole lot of contact. And, of course, he needs to know how to handle a pitching staff. However, the Diamondbacks have historically been good at developing good defensive/game-managing catchers (see Chris Snyder, Rod Barajas). This makes the biggest question the Van Winkle's power, which is crucial to his development. Without power, Van Winkle flops, no questions asked. Grade: C- (Short-term C-, Long-term: C-)
Round 18, Pick 546 - Roidany Aguila
Born:10/22/1990 in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico School: Colegio Nuestra Senora de la Providencia HS Height: 5'10'' Weight: 175 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 13 ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .000/.000/000 XBH: 0 ISO: BABIP: .000 K:BB 6:0
Low-A Yakima: 42 ABs AVG/OBP/SLG: .119/.156/.143 XBH: 1 double ISO: .034 BABIP .172 K:BB 13:1
Zephon: I won't bother with a grade for this one. Roidany Aguila did absolutely nothing in his 57 ABS. Even if he raked in those at bats, it wouldn't mean much, since it's such a small sample size. It does he appear that he was a victim of bad luck with a BABIP of 000 in Missoula, and BABIP of .172 in Yakima. The big positive for Aguila his age. He was 18 during the whole season, and only turned 19 after the season ended. Latin American prospects tend to be quite raw, and seem to take a while to develop, but Aquila does have youth on his side. Grade: Incomplete
IHSB: Nothing else to say here that Zephon didn't already. 57 ABs is too few, but the kid has time. Young catching prospects are always intruiging, but, especially coming from Latin America and having a position that requires a good relationship with the pitching staff, lots of development is a must. Grade: Incomplete
Round 26, Pick 786 - Daniel Kaczrowski
Born: 06/17/1987 in St. Anthony, MN School: Hamline U Height: 5'9'' Weight: 170 Position: Left Field Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: 274ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .266/.345/.343 XBH: 16 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homerun ISO: .077 K:BB 42:28 BABIP: .312 SB:CS 12:3
Zephon: Another one of the 'owskis selected by the Dbacks this year, and another one I'm rooting for purely based on his last name. In college Kaczrowski was a shortstop, but after signing with the Dbacks, Kaczrowski was moved to the outfield. I'm not sure if the move was permanent, or just to get him playing time, but it does reduce the value of his offense. Looking at his offensive statistics, there really isn't that much to say. The batting average isn't bad, but it's not that good. His on base percentage is pretty decent considering the low batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a respectable 4:3. In addition, all though his power numbers aren't that great, Kazcrowski makes up for it a bit with his excellent 80 percent success rate on the base paths. If Kaczrowski doesn't develop more power, he's going to have to succceed at the major league level by basically being the good version of Juan Pierre: a guy who hits for contact, draws a lot of walks, and swipe lots of bags. If he could get moved back to the infield, he'd be worth a lot more, but who know if that's even an option. Grade: C (Short term: C Long term: C-)
IHSB: Doesn't have the bat to make in the outfield, so even though it's where he played this year, he'll likely be found in the middle infielders section when it comes time to check back in on these guys. I can only speculate that the 5'9'' Kaczrowski was put in the outfield because, of the plethora of middle infielders that the Osprey had available to it, Kaczrowski was the one that the team has the least invested in, as he's a 26th round pick. However, given
his draft spot, putting up an OPS just shy of .700 while probably uncomfortable playing out of position is pretty solid. Another guy whose career goal is to be Augie Ojeda, the fact that the team is juggling him around the diamond already is absolutely detrimental to the part of his game he needs to focus on the most, his defense. It's a bit of shame when a team's handling of a player has a negative impact on the player's development, but in this case, given the sheer quantity of middle infielders covered last week, it's understandable that Kaczrowski was juggled. Grade: B- (Short-term: B, Long-term: C)
Round 44, Pick 1326 - Zach Varnell
Born: 06/25/1986 Pine Bluff, AR School:: U Arkansas Pine Bluff Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: 37abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .108/.267/.135 XBH: 1 double K:BB: 20:8
Zephon: The very last pick to sign with the Diamondbacks was Zach Varnell, a catcher out of Arkansas. There's really not all that much to say about the guy, as he had a pretty poor debut season. I think the only thing worth mentioning is the fact that his on base percentage is 159 points higher than his batting average, and he does have a pretty decent 2 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of a positives for this guy. He'll more than likely end up being minor league organizational filler, all though then again, there's been some other catchers that teams have signed in the last round that have turned out pretty well... Grade: Incomplete. And Pointless.
IHSB: There's a reason that Varnell was picked later than any other kid we signed - he's an organizational guy. Catchers are always valuable commodities, as mentioned in the introduction, and that's what Varnell is here for. The bat is pretty much irrelevant, as we can't have any real expectations of him ever reaching the major leagues. All we can honestly hope for is for Varnell to handle the pitching staff of Yakima, South Bend, or wherever the heck the team decides to put him (it really doesn't matter) well. And since I have no information on how Varnell handles a pitching staff, there is no grade that I feel I can assign here. Grade: Incomplete (and Irrelevant)
The Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set in the outfield with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and Cole Gillespie. However, there's still some concern about Chris Young's offense, and Conor Jackson will be a free agent in 2012. Although the outfield is not the most pressing of needs for the Diamondbacks at the major league level, in the minors there's a lack of impact talent, so they took two promising (and hopefully fast moving) college bats in A.J. Pollock and Marc Krauss. In addition they added a high ceiling, toolsy and young raw prospect in Keon Broxton. Daniel Kaczrowski was drafted as a shortstop and will most likely end up being moved back to the middle infield next year.
Moving onto the catching position, the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set with Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder (who will most likely be moved during this offseason), and John Hester at the major league level. While the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively. Tyson Van Winkle has a chance to be a high OPS catcher in the vein of Chris Snyder; 18th rounder Roidany Aguila is a young Latin American talent that is a total wild card, and Zach Varnell fills the need for an organizational catcher.
Next week we'll begin looking at the whopping 19 pitchers taken in the draft, starting with pitchers A through Hale. Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to once again make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Milb.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank IHateSouthBend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. And to the everyone else on Snakepit, I'd just like to thank you all for the positive feedback you've given us so far. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned next week for part three!
For week three of our 5 part prospect extravaganza we're looking at outfielders and catchers. I know someone is going to ask why we chose to stick the outfielders with the catchers, so I guess i should explain. The Dbacks just didn't draft all that many outfielders or catchers, so we chose to put them together to make the articles even in size. Next week we're looking at the first half of the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 Amateur-opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.
Star-divide
The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success.
It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.
When you discuss outfielders for the Diamondbacks, the great trio the Snakes trotted out in the 2001 World Series season has to be mentioned immediately - Luis Gonzalez in left, Steve Finley in center, and Reggie Sanders, who we let leave the following offseason, in right. Prior to the arrival of the 2009 Turbo-Charged Justin Upton, these three were arguably (with the debate between Sanders and Danny Bautista being a toss-up) the best players the Diamondbacks had ever had at the three respective positions. Runners-up to the Big Three include Shawn Green, Bautista, Jose Guillen, and Devon White.
Ever heard of Chris Jones, Hensley Meulens, and Matt Mieske? We thought not. Well, they're also just a small sampling of the numerous unheard-of outfielders the D-Backs have trotted out in their short history. And for 2010 we have a promising group of young outfielders, with the likely starters being that aforementioned 22-year-old guy named Upton in right, 26-year-old Chris Young in center, and a platoon of 26-year-old Conor Jackson and 22-year-old Gerardo Parra in left. And there's a healthy competition for the fifth outfield spot quietly stirring between Alex Romero, Cole Gillespie, and the one man almost nobody wants to see remain in a Diamondbacks uniform, Eric Byrnes.
So the major-league outfield appears set for quite a while, and it's a good thing that it is, as there really isn't much talent other than Gillespie in the upper-levels of the minors ready to fill in. AAA, if Gillespie is headed to the major-league roster, will contain no outfielders of note, unless Romero, Cyle Hankerd, and Chris Rahl put a banana in your pants. AA will be where some of the higher-upside guys in the system start next season, most noteably Collin Cowgill and Ollie "Lightning" Linton, of completely different skill sets, but equally potent. Cowgill is a good power hitter despite his 5'9'' frame, and can get on base. Linton has almost no home run power, although he used his ridiculous speed to accumulate 28 doubles and a whopping 10 triples last season, reached base at a .394 mark, and stole 28 bases. Further, Linton's speed makes him a plus defender in center, and he plays with the kind of reckless abandon that fans used to love about Byrnes.
They may ready for the majors just in the nick of time, as Cowgill, a more advanced hitter than Linton, could step in to backup/platoon with Parra when Co-Jack is a free agent in 2012, and Linton could be ready to start when CY is a free agent in 2014 (team has option for 2015 season). But the team clearly didn't want to count on Cowgill has their only plan to replace Jackson, especially given the questions surrounding whether or not Jackson will return to his old levels of production, so it decided to use a few of its earlier picks in the draft on college outfielders with advanced bats and tool sets who could rise quickly and provide insurance for the outfield. Then, to add a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect to the lower ranks of the system, the team picked tool-shed Keon Broxton after solidifying the quick-rising ranks of the system.
Now, to move on to the catchers. While usually a difficult position to solidify for many years, catcher has been a fairly stable position for the Diamondbacks throughout their history. While we haven't had enough luck to find a Jorge Posada or Joe Mauer with a plus bat for the position for a dozen years, and we played too well last season to bank on Bryce Harper in the 2010 draft, we have been able to get six years (and counting, for now) from Chris Snyder, five years from Damian Miller, four years from Kelly Stinnett (although in two stints with the team, from '98-'00 and '05), and one real stop-gap starter in Johnny Estrada. Further, we've even received some good consistency with backups, from Robby Hammock to Rod Barajas to Chad Moeller. And, even though Snyder's clock in Arizona may be winding down, it appears that we have ourselves set at the position for many years once again with Miguel Montero's breakout season and a good cameo from John Hester, who appears to be a fairly capable backup for years to come.
So, even though the system lacks any real high-upside catchers outside of 20-year-old Rossmel Perez, especially with the lackluster seasons just put in by former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton, the team didn't need to spend a high pick on a backstop. However, it is important to note that minor-league catchers are very important commodities. It is in the minor leagues that catchers begin to actually call games for pitchers, and the way a catcher handles a top prospect pitcher may have a huge impact on that pitcher's development. Therefore, it is crucial to have a solid group of organizational catchers who can call a good game for your pitchers and utilize each pitcher's strengths. So, while the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively.
Round 1, Pick 17 - A.J. Pollock
Born: December 5, 1987 in Hebron, Connecticut School: University of Notre Dame Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200LBs Position: Center Field Bats: Right Throws: Right
Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 255 AVG/OBP/SLG: .271/.319/.376 XBH: 12 2Bs/3 3B/3 HRs K:BB: 36:16 ISO: .106 BABIP: .306 SB:CS 10:4 Errors: 1
Zephon: Pollock was one of our "safe" picks at 17 overall, a college bat that's should move quickly through the minors. Pollock is considered one of the better pure college hitters in this draft. He's a gap to gap line drive hitter who won't hit a ton of homers, maybe 10 to 15 at most. However, he does make up for that with his speed on the base paths. As he gets more experience he should become an excellent stolen base threat. Since he's recently converted from shortstop to the outfield, he still has a lot to learn defensively , but he should end up being a plus defender. Pollock got off to a slow start, heated up in July, had a poor August, and then had an excellent September to finish the year. Although his on base percentage isn't all that great, he does have a pretty solid 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. Pollock's slugging percentage was really dragged down by the miserable August. Overall, I think Pollock had a pretty solid debut, and I think it'll be interesting to see how he does next year in (most likely) Visalia. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B)
IHSB: The way to describe the first pro season for the most oddly named man alive (Allen Lorenz Pollock = A.J. Pollock?) is solid but unspectacular, which is disappointing given that the organization expected him to rip through Mid-A South Bend given that Midwest League Competition wasn't foreign to Pollock, given that Notre Dame plays an exhibition game against the SilverHawks at the beginning of each season. He’ll nevertheless rise to Visalia because the organization wants to push him through quickly after a standout career and Notre Dame, and his age requires this for his top-prospect standing. Still a top-ten guy for the organization with his tools (speed, good contact bat, fielding, decent arm, light power) and occasional encouraging flashes of brilliance, but needs to show more consistency (or maybe some BABIP regression - his number for South Bend was .303, which, given his speed, may be low for Pollock), especially since the California League, which he’ll be entering, is a hitter’s paradise (although not quite to the proportions of the PCL). The acquisition of Tony Abreu likely means that the middle infield of the future is jammed up with Abreu, Taylor Harbin, and Pedro Ciriaco, so the once-possible move to second-base, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would have made Pollock's bat more valuable and saved outfield spots for power hitters, Justin Upton, and Chris Young's contract, now becomes nearly a complete a non-possibility unless the team starts to clear a couple prospects for major-leaguers at next year's or 2011's trade deadline. Good news with the stay in the outfield for Pollock is that his defense there is plus, as can be derived from his tool set. It can be thought of this way: you can get a plus bat with solid defense at second, or a solid bat with plus defense in center field. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B-)
Round 2, Pick 64 - Marc Krauss
Born: October 5, 1987 in Deshler, Ohio School: Ohio U Height: 6'3'' Weight: 235 Position: Left Field Bats: Left Throws: Right
Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 115 AVG/OBP/SLG: .304/.377/.478 XBH: 12 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs K:BB: 21:14 ISO: .174 BABIP: .359 Errors: 1
Zephon: With Justin Upton manning right field for as long as we can hopefully hold on to him, and Chris Young signed till 2013, left field is going to have a lot of guys competing for the job the next few years until someone completely locks down the position. Unfortunately for Marc Krauss, there's already Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and A.J. Pollock ahead of him competing for the job. In addition, that doesn't even factor in a guy like Keon Broxton who's less projectionable, or guys like Borchering who may end up getting moved to the outfield. Getting past that, Marc Krauss put up a very nice season in South Bend, with an above average batting, on base, slugging, and isolated slugging percentages. I'd like to see a few more homers out of him next season honestly, all though I don't mind a high BA doubles hitter (see Conor Jackson). He's got a very solid almost 3:2 K:BB ratio, not too many strikeouts. For the season, Krauss was 21, a touch younger than league average. Hopefully he'll be able to move through the system quickly. Grade B+ (Short term: B Long Term: B+)
IHSB: There were two big concerns about Marc Krauss going into his first professional season. First was how he would handle the transition from aluminum bats and crappy, in-conference pitching to wood bats and good, professional-level pitching. Welp (misspelling intended for dramaticish effect), so much for that little dilemma. Second was where, and how well, could he play defense. Sadly, that one still hasn't been quite figured out. Nonetheless, he raked in his time in Mid-A fresh out of college, so it wouldn't be at all far-fetched if he ends up mashing the hitter-friendly California League and ends up in Mobile by the end of next season. Still, it's in cases like this where being an American League team would be really helpful. Especially since the position it appears he is most likely going to end up playing, left field (since right field is currently and hopefully forever-ly manned by a man named Upton), is home to Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra (who is only going to be 23 next season to Krauss' 22) in the majors and guys like Cole Gillespie, Collin Cowgill, and South Bend teammate A.J. Pollock in the minors. Could definitely see this being a high-quality bat used as a trade chip in a year or two. Grade: B- (Short-term B, Long-term: C+)
Round 3, Pick 95 - Keon Broxton
Born: May 07, 1990 in Lakeland, Florida School: Santa Fe (Fla.) CC Height: 6'3'' Weight: 187 Position: Center Field Bats: Rights Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 272abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .246/.302/.474 XBH: 11 2B/9 3B/11 HRs K:BB: 93:19 ISO: .228 BABIP: .333 SB:CS: 6:1 Errors: 4
Zephon: First, I must note that Keon Broxton is NOT related to the Dodgers reliever. Keon Broxton is a player I'm probably a little too high on. I seem to always end up loving players that share my birthday(See Conor Jackson). Broxton is a multi-tooled outfielder who was raw but fast-improving during his junior college season. Physical comparisons have ranged from Rondell White to Matt Kemp. His strike zone judgement is sketchy, but it's obvious from his numbers that he not only has some serious power, but some serious wheels as well. I think this guy is definitely a diamond in the rough. As IHSB notes, he's basically Chris Young. If this guy figures out the strike zone, he could be something special. Take a look at his XBH numbers, especially the ridiculous 9 triples. Then look at his excellent .228 ISO. This is a guy I think you should be keeping an eye on over the next couple years. Grade: B (Short Term: B Long term: B+)
IHSB: Although it's worth noting that Zephon has a moderately unwarranted solid man-crush on Keon Broxton, it's not like Keon Broxton is bad. Quite the contrary - he plays a solid center field, has wheels, hits for power, and strikes out a ton. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, we've found Chris Young again. He's just 19 years old, just finished slugging all over the Pioneer League, and will definitely be in line for a slow path through Yakima next season to work on those on-base skills. It'll take a lot of work, but if this guy figures out that his bat doesn't need to go below his knees or above the letters, he'll do some special things. Grade: B+ (Short-term: B, Long-Term: B+)
Round 10, pick 306 - Tyson Van Winkle
Born: February 2, 1988 In Vancouver, Washington School: Gonzaga Height: 6'1'' Weight: 190 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: ABs: 156 AVG/OBP/SLG: .244/.367/.308 XBH: 10 2B K:BB: 35:25 ISO: .064 BABIP: .314 SB:CS 4:2
Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 17 AVG/OBP/SLG: .059/.111/.059 XBH: None K:BB: 2:1 ISO: .000 BABIP: .067
Zephon: First I have to say it: Tyson Van Winkle is a funny name. Now to the analysis. At first glance, Tyson had a relatively mediocre season, but he did have two bright spots: His on base percentage in Yakima was 123 points higher than his batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a pretty decent 7:5 ratio. I'm not even going to bothering discussing his time in South Bend, other than the fact that it appears he was the victim of extremely bad luck, sporting a BABIP of .067. Winkle is the highest drafted catcher in the Dbacks' 09 draft. With the offensive skillset he's shown, i would think he'd best succeed as a defense first catcher in the mold of Chris Snyder, a guy who can draw walks and maybe hit for a little pop, although the latter he has yet to show. Grade: C (Short term: C- Long term C)
IHSB: 17 at-bats is too few to make any judgment on, so people should only bother to look at the Yakima numbers. From those numbers, we find one thing that Van Winkle needs to really improve upon in order to make himself a solid catching prospect. He needs to find some sort of power that can make him into an OPS "Moneyball" guy (hearkening to Oakland GM Billy Beane's book about deeper statistical analysis of baseball players, although the original definition of a "Moneyball" guy has been stretched to be anybody with a high OPS and low BA), the type of player that casual fans will hate because he'll have low batting averages, but the type of guy that the stat nerds (like me) will like because he gets the job done without making a whole lot of contact. And, of course, he needs to know how to handle a pitching staff. However, the Diamondbacks have historically been good at developing good defensive/game-managing catchers (see Chris Snyder, Rod Barajas). This makes the biggest question the Van Winkle's power, which is crucial to his development. Without power, Van Winkle flops, no questions asked. Grade: C- (Short-term C-, Long-term: C-)
Round 18, Pick 546 - Roidany Aguila
Born:10/22/1990 in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico School: Colegio Nuestra Senora de la Providencia HS Height: 5'10'' Weight: 175 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 13 ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .000/.000/000 XBH: 0 ISO: BABIP: .000 K:BB 6:0
Low-A Yakima: 42 ABs AVG/OBP/SLG: .119/.156/.143 XBH: 1 double ISO: .034 BABIP .172 K:BB 13:1
Zephon: I won't bother with a grade for this one. Roidany Aguila did absolutely nothing in his 57 ABS. Even if he raked in those at bats, it wouldn't mean much, since it's such a small sample size. It does he appear that he was a victim of bad luck with a BABIP of 000 in Missoula, and BABIP of .172 in Yakima. The big positive for Aguila his age. He was 18 during the whole season, and only turned 19 after the season ended. Latin American prospects tend to be quite raw, and seem to take a while to develop, but Aquila does have youth on his side. Grade: Incomplete
IHSB: Nothing else to say here that Zephon didn't already. 57 ABs is too few, but the kid has time. Young catching prospects are always intruiging, but, especially coming from Latin America and having a position that requires a good relationship with the pitching staff, lots of development is a must. Grade: Incomplete
Round 26, Pick 786 - Daniel Kaczrowski
Born: 06/17/1987 in St. Anthony, MN School: Hamline U Height: 5'9'' Weight: 170 Position: Left Field Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: 274ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .266/.345/.343 XBH: 16 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homerun ISO: .077 K:BB 42:28 BABIP: .312 SB:CS 12:3
Zephon: Another one of the 'owskis selected by the Dbacks this year, and another one I'm rooting for purely based on his last name. In college Kaczrowski was a shortstop, but after signing with the Dbacks, Kaczrowski was moved to the outfield. I'm not sure if the move was permanent, or just to get him playing time, but it does reduce the value of his offense. Looking at his offensive statistics, there really isn't that much to say. The batting average isn't bad, but it's not that good. His on base percentage is pretty decent considering the low batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a respectable 4:3. In addition, all though his power numbers aren't that great, Kazcrowski makes up for it a bit with his excellent 80 percent success rate on the base paths. If Kaczrowski doesn't develop more power, he's going to have to succceed at the major league level by basically being the good version of Juan Pierre: a guy who hits for contact, draws a lot of walks, and swipe lots of bags. If he could get moved back to the infield, he'd be worth a lot more, but who know if that's even an option. Grade: C (Short term: C Long term: C-)
IHSB: Doesn't have the bat to make in the outfield, so even though it's where he played this year, he'll likely be found in the middle infielders section when it comes time to check back in on these guys. I can only speculate that the 5'9'' Kaczrowski was put in the outfield because, of the plethora of middle infielders that the Osprey had available to it, Kaczrowski was the one that the team has the least invested in, as he's a 26th round pick. However, given
his draft spot, putting up an OPS just shy of .700 while probably uncomfortable playing out of position is pretty solid. Another guy whose career goal is to be Augie Ojeda, the fact that the team is juggling him around the diamond already is absolutely detrimental to the part of his game he needs to focus on the most, his defense. It's a bit of shame when a team's handling of a player has a negative impact on the player's development, but in this case, given the sheer quantity of middle infielders covered last week, it's understandable that Kaczrowski was juggled. Grade: B- (Short-term: B, Long-term: C)
Round 44, Pick 1326 - Zach Varnell
Born: 06/25/1986 Pine Bluff, AR School:: U Arkansas Pine Bluff Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: 37abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .108/.267/.135 XBH: 1 double K:BB: 20:8
Zephon: The very last pick to sign with the Diamondbacks was Zach Varnell, a catcher out of Arkansas. There's really not all that much to say about the guy, as he had a pretty poor debut season. I think the only thing worth mentioning is the fact that his on base percentage is 159 points higher than his batting average, and he does have a pretty decent 2 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of a positives for this guy. He'll more than likely end up being minor league organizational filler, all though then again, there's been some other catchers that teams have signed in the last round that have turned out pretty well... Grade: Incomplete. And Pointless.
IHSB: There's a reason that Varnell was picked later than any other kid we signed - he's an organizational guy. Catchers are always valuable commodities, as mentioned in the introduction, and that's what Varnell is here for. The bat is pretty much irrelevant, as we can't have any real expectations of him ever reaching the major leagues. All we can honestly hope for is for Varnell to handle the pitching staff of Yakima, South Bend, or wherever the heck the team decides to put him (it really doesn't matter) well. And since I have no information on how Varnell handles a pitching staff, there is no grade that I feel I can assign here. Grade: Incomplete (and Irrelevant)
The Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set in the outfield with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and Cole Gillespie. However, there's still some concern about Chris Young's offense, and Conor Jackson will be a free agent in 2012. Although the outfield is not the most pressing of needs for the Diamondbacks at the major league level, in the minors there's a lack of impact talent, so they took two promising (and hopefully fast moving) college bats in A.J. Pollock and Marc Krauss. In addition they added a high ceiling, toolsy and young raw prospect in Keon Broxton. Daniel Kaczrowski was drafted as a shortstop and will most likely end up being moved back to the middle infield next year.
Moving onto the catching position, the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set with Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder (who will most likely be moved during this offseason), and John Hester at the major league level. While the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively. Tyson Van Winkle has a chance to be a high OPS catcher in the vein of Chris Snyder; 18th rounder Roidany Aguila is a young Latin American talent that is a total wild card, and Zach Varnell fills the need for an organizational catcher.
Next week we'll begin looking at the whopping 19 pitchers taken in the draft, starting with pitchers A through Hale. Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to once again make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Milb.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank IHateSouthBend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. And to the everyone else on Snakepit, I'd just like to thank you all for the positive feedback you've given us so far. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned next week for part three!
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