Here we are, at the final edition of my brilliant idea for wasting countless hours of summer, the D-Backs Deadline Possibilities series, with a final piece on the last two really marketable pieces on our roster that we would actually consider moving - our eighth and ninth inning guys, Jon Rauch and Chad Qualls. The season has gone quite differently for both pitchers, as to be expected due to the fact that both of them have immensely different pitching styles - Rauch being a fly-ball contact pitcher who needs to be able to keep the ball in the ballpark to be successful (why he was so dominant in Washington and so horrible-to-solid in the desert), and Qualls being a heavy sink pitcher on both of his two best pitches, his sinker and slider, getting outs by forcing ground balls that a good defensive infield can scoop up for double plays. Qualls certainly has the better season numbers, but after finally getting rid of dead-arm symptoms and picking his velocity back up, Rauch has been the best pitcher in our bullpen over nearly the past three months, to the tune of a 3.46 May ERA, a 2.08 June ERA, and 2.35 ERA so far in July. Were it not for the horrendous 9.31 ERA he put up in April, he would probably be one of the top two or three relief arms on the market. On the season, he has a 4.15 ERA with 6 holds, and is 2-3 in save opportunities. Qualls, on the other hand, struggled a little through June, with a 5.59 ERA and going just 1-2 in saves after posting a 3.43 ERA through the first two months of the season, but has rebounded spectacularly in July, posting a shiny 1.80 ERA and going 5-6 in save opportunities. On the season, he has a 3.54 ERA and is 18-22 in save opportunities.
The second detail that must be taken note of with regards to both pitchers is their respective contracts. Both are signed/under control not just through this season, but also for 2010, before becoming free agents in the winter of 2010/spring of 2011. The D-Backs have exercised Rauch's 2010 option in the offseason, a move that, while originally blasted, is looking like a stroke of genius for the mere $2.9M Rauch is to be paid. Since Rauch is an option to close next season, and is set to make a modest salary, there isn't much urgency to deal him this deadline. As for Qualls, he becomes arbitration eligible after this season, which may be bad news for the budget-conscious D-Backs. While he won't make near the $10M that Valverde made through arbitration due to his lack of bulk saves (despite being a better pitcher), his $2.535M salary for this season is set to rise substantially next season, perhaps doubling like it did last summer, or even rising up beyond that point. It's a situation that reminds me mildly of the Roy Halladay debacle in Toronto - The D-Backs and Jays both have valuable pitchers that other teams desire, and there's supposedly extra value in these players since they have a year and a half of control left rather than just three months, but there's also incentive for the teams to trade their players now in order to get that increased value, and to remove the salary off of their books for next season, as both teams appear to be trying to make salary cuts and go into rebuilding mode. The D-Backs have said that they're not going to deal Qualls unless they're wowed by an offer, but if they are, it would certainly be extremely beneficial to the short-term and long-term successes and budget-management of the team. Teams often panic when they're in need of bullpen help, and we might be the lucky recipients of such panic this year.
Star-divide
Time to get down to the nitty-gritty once again, and with the unique contract circumstances of Qualls and Rauch, there's one tweak to be made to the teams involved. Anybody who feels that they need bullpen help for this season, or who are building up pieces to try to make a run next season, are in the market for a Chad Qualls. So basically, you can take the list of teams from the last two pieces I've written - on Chad Tracy and Jon Garland/Doug Davis, and add teams like the high-budget/hard-luck Mets who are primed to be contenders again next season after their stars recover from their injuries and they're able to add a good fifth starter in free agency (I could see Doug landing in New York if we don't extend him). As far as the AL/NL shift, it's certainly less dramatic for relief pitchers, and Qualls definitely has the stuff to make it in the AL, and while Rauch is more questionable, with the way he's been pitching as of late, it's not out of the question that he could be productive in the AL as well.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have a closer, a LOOGY, and nothing else of any value in their bullpen. I could see them acquiring both Rauch and Qualls, despite the move to the AL, because of how gigantic the Angels' ballpark is and how good their outfield is defensively. Rauch would probably thrive in L.A., and Qualls would be the set-up man to Brian Fuentes from day one. They're looking for a starter, but the bigger need might be a set-up man.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners don't appear to be making a run at this season, but looking to the future, they could use a couple of bullpen pieces going into next season. David Aardsma has been lights-out, and Mark Lowe, Sean White, and Cesar Jimenez have been good-to-solid, but Miguel Batista is in the twilight of his career, and fill-ins Shawn Kelley and Chris Jakubauskas have both been horrid. Safeco is big enough for Rauch to operate, and the Mariners certainly have the budget to accomidate Qualls' arbitration salary. Would make sense for the Mariners to jump into the fray in the winter to try and get one of these two guys.
Texas Rangers: Closer Frank Fransisco has been dominant when healthy, and his most recent DL trip - for pneumonia - isn't arm-related. Fill-in closer C.J. Wilson has been very good, Darren O'Day has been productive, but otherwise, they have a bunch of average arms in the 'pen, the best of them being long-relief guy Jason Jennings and 38-year-old Eddie Guardado. A Rauch acquisition wouldn't be the best fit for Arlington, but Qualls would fit very nicely.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox: They got Tony Pena from us, and fans have revolted since. Regardless of whether or not they could use another bullpen arm - and they don't, and really didn't even before getting Pena, they have a marvellous bullpen - they're not trading for either Qualls or Rauch.
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers bullpen could use some work. Brandon Lyon is a decent set-up guy, but nobody is fooled by Fernando Rodney's 21-for-21 in saves. He's got a 3.67 ERA, and has been a huge product of luck, even after pitching above his career numbers at age 32, something that is oh so very sustainable, of course. Bobby Seay's a decent LOOGY, Zach Miner is useless aside from as an Edgar Gonzalez-type long reliever and rare spot starter, Ryan Perry has been solid but is 22, and Joel Zumaya might not pitch again for the rest of the season, and even if he does, for as hard as he throws, a 4.94 ERA isn't going to be what the Tigers need. Comerica Park isn't a home-run park, so Rauch could be a good value for the Tigers, and Qualls of course would be welcome by the high-budget Tigers, who could certainly afford his arbitration paycheck. If they're hoping to go anywhere in the postseason, they're going to need a better bullpen.
Minnesota Twins: The front four of the Twins 'pen is pitching marvellously this year, but after them, there's a fairly steep drop. However, since those guys are pitching better than Qualls or Rauch are, it wouldn't make much sense for the Twins to invest in a relief pitcher who would split sixth- and seventh-inning duties with a stacked bullpen. Especially when it means possibly moving Rauch to the Astrodome.
AL East
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox's bullpen is just fine, and not in need of a Qualls or a Rauch. Papelboners are still at full-mast, and the middle relief guys have all put up good numbers on the season, without any major injuries currently nagging the team to speak of. The biggest thing that the Red Sox could probably use is a LOOGY, as their only left is Hideki Okajima, who is more of a one-inning guy than a lefty specialist. But, once again, Scott Schoenweis is not their answer. The Sox have likely filled out their shopping list for the summer, having added a much-needed righty-hitting left-handed bat in Adam LaRoche.
New York Yankees: Phil Hughes has been dominant ever since moving to a set-up role for Mariano Rivera, but there are questions in the Yankees' bullpen, primarily Brian Bruney's 5.30 ERA and Damaso Marte's 15.19 ERA in seven appearances at the start of the year before landing on the DL. However, the Yankees would probably look to address their fifth starter slot before looking to address the bullpen, and have been quiet enough to suggest that much more than one addition doesn't seem likely.
Tampa Bay Rays: An odd situation. Their closer, left J.P. Howell, has a 1.82 ERA, but yet is only 11-16 in converting saves. It seems like with the numbers he's putting up, though (1.01 WHIP, 60 K, 17 BB, 49.1 IP, aforementioned shiny ERA), that can mostly be attributed to the Rays not giving him much wiggle room, and a little bit of bad luck. They also have a good LOOGY, with Randy Choate having turned his career around, and Dan Wheeler to handle the eighth inning duries. However, they could use a more adequate seventh-inning man, with Jason Isringhausen having been out for most of the year with a torn elbow ligament, long-relief guy Lance Cormier starting to struggle as his innings are building (53.1 IP this year in 29 appearances - 5.79 July ERA), and Brian Shouse on the DL. The Trop isn't a huge home-run field, so Rauch could probably manage there, although the stuff is shaky for the level of competition within the division. Qualls would probably be a better fit, and would be in a role more suited to his ability. However, as addressed yesterday, they're probably more in the market for a starter, and also not looking to add salary, so getting Qualls just as he's arbitration-eligible probably wouldn't make much sense for the small-market Rays. Qualls not a match for financial reasons, and Rauch iffy for AL East reasons.
NL West
Colorado Rockies: As briefly touched-upon in my last post, the Rockies could certainly use a bullpen arm since injuries have devastated their already-shaky 'pen. They did just trade for Rafael Betancourt of the Indians, but nevertheless had to call up Jhoulys Chacin from AA to be their fifth middle reliever into the 'pen. Qualls certainly seems like a guy who wouldn't suffer too badly in Coors, since he can keep the ball on the ground instead of in Colorado's paper-thin air. Rauch, on the other hand, had better pray that he doesn't end up a Rockie. It would be really bad. Also, the in-division factor is there.
Los Angeles Dodgers: While we'd never trade either Rauch or Qualls to the Dodgers, they probably could use the bullpen help, as they have Claudio Vargas and James McDonald filling in in the 'pen while Ronald Belisario and Will Ohman are out with injuries. What they could really use more than anything is a better LOOGY than Ohman has been for them, but, once again, we are not in possession of such a commodity.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants have a decent bullpen, with Brandon Medders having a career year, closer Brian Wilson getting 25 of 29 saves despite his ERA, Jeremy Affeldt being very good as a non-LOOGY left-hander, and Bob Howry giving a few quality innings, but they certainly have room for improvement. But Merkin Valdez has never been able to utilize his good fastball, and Sergio Romo frankly shouldn't be pitching in the majors for a team in the race for a Wild Card berth. If Randy Johnson comes back, they could be free to put ZOMGZ Sanchez back in the bullpen where he belongs, but his status is fairly uncertain. They could really use another starter to put in place of ZOMGZ Sanchez, which would bolster both their rotation and, subsequently, their bullpen. Qualls would be a great pickup, although I wouldn't be too trusting of Rauch at AT&T Park. However, he wouldn't be any worse there than at Chase Field. But, like with the Rockies, there's the in-division factor. And finally, because I want to say it once more, for no reason at all, ZOMGZ Sanchez!!!
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: The Cubbies don't appear to have much need for Qualls or Rauch. Kevin Gregg, despite his lackluster ERA in the mid-3's for a closer, has converted 21 of 24 save opportunities. Carlos Marmol continues to be a workhorse in the seventh and eighth innings, and abandoned starter Angel Guzman has thrived in middle relief. Really, what they could probably use is a better LOOGY than Sean Marshall, but sadly Scott Schoenweis has certainly not been that.
Houston Astros: Jose Valverde is closing again, and finally has gotten his ERA below 3, although whether or not he's worth the $10M they're paying him is very debatable with the number of games he's missed (well, not really actually, he's most definitely not worth it). LaTroy Hawkins has been marvellous, and LOOGY Tim Byrdak's 3.58 ERA is highest on the team. Even if Hawkins' back problems are serious, the Astros shouldn't be in need of any bullpen help. This, not to mention the fact that a trade re-acquiring Qualls just as he's about to be arbitration-eligible would seem to be poor timing, and make very little sense.
Milwaukee Brewers: The fact that Carlos Villanueva has pitched in 43 games for a contending team despite a 6.18 ERA is astonishing, and says a lot about the fact that the Brewers could stand to add another arm in the 'pen to go along with Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, LOOGY Mitch Stetter, and Mark DiFelice. Qualls would be a good fit, but would be a great deal more expensive than Rauch, who could pitch just fine at Miller Park, currently 27th in the majors in Park Factor. I could see a Rauch deal being a win-win with the Brewers. Yet another piece of ours the Brewers could use.
St. Louis Cardinals: In getting to Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan has been solid, and Trevor Miller is an above-average LOOGY. But for a team that put Blaine Boyer on waivers, the rest of their 'pen could really use some work, especially after also giving up Chris Perez in the Mark DeRosa trade. They're clearly looking to add as many pieces as they can, and spacious Busch Stadium could be a haven for both Rauch and Qualls, both of whom the Cardinals could certainly use. The biggest question is whether or not they're willing to further gut their farm system in order to go all-out and make a run for the title. The Holliday trade pretty much automatically put them in the playoffs barring a serious injury, the big question that's left is how far do they want to go?
NL East
Atlanta Braves: The always-interesting Mike Gonzalez appears to have lost the closer's spot to Rafael Soriano, who is in the midst of a video-game like 1.54 ERA season. Gonzalez is 10-14 in save opportunities, while Soriano is 14-15. Not a very hard decision for Bobby Cox to make, really. But Gonzalez, despite consistently making things interesting, is putting up good numbers, with a 3.18 ERA on the season. They're also getting good production out of just about every one of their middle relievers, with Peter Moylan turning his season around after a miserable start (at the start of the season, he allowed five earned runs in two games before recording an out in his third contest), Boone Logan throwing well in his first cup of coffee, Eric O'Flaherty being solid all year, and Manny Acosta keeping his ERA below 4, despite having numbers below his career averages this season. They could use a bat, as mentioned in previous pieces, but their pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, is marvellous.
New York Mets: Currently, Pedro Feliciano is their best option to get it to closer Francisco Rodriguez, but he has lowered his ERA by over 1 point since last season at the age of 32, something that doesn't figure to continue into next season (or for the rest of this one, for that matter). The Mets currently aren't in a race, and hence aren't likely to pay the steep price to get Qualls or Rauch now, but don't be shocked if they pop up as a suitor for either in the summer, more likely Qualls, especially since 38-year-old Billy Wagner has been injured most of the year and can't be relied on much more, and J.J. Putz has been about what his last-name suggests ever since coming over the Mets (zing). It's a good fit, really, as Citi Field's park factor shows a trend for giving up an above-average number of home runs, but a below-average number of hits, so Qualls' sinker would take care of the first part, and he'd feast off of the second. Especially with a good defense up the middle with Reyes and Castillo, Qualls could be a great set-up man in New York. Rauch, not so much.
Philadelphia Phillies: They need a starter, but aren't desperately in need of relief help to get to Brad Lidge, despite the presence of the name "Chan Ho Park" amongst the five middle relievers in their 'pen. Ryan Madson has been good all season, Scott Eyre has been a fantastic LOOGY, Clay Condrey has been solid but was just put on the DL with a strained back, and former Giants closer Tyler Walker has been good in his limited action since being called-up from AAA to fill in for the injured J.C. Romero. However, if they're not in the mood to depend on a 33-year-old AAA-callup in Walker for a solid chunk of bullpen innings, it would make sense to add Qualls, and rumors have the Phillies as a potential Qualls suitor. Rauch could also play at Citizen's Bank Park, and would be an alternative if they don't want to pay quite as steep of a price as Qualls would demand.
To recap once more, the market for any interest in Qualls is significantly larger than that for Rauch, including the Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, Rockies, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, and Phillies, with Rauch's market being the Angels, Mariners, Tigers, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, and Phillies. The teams that seem to have legitimate interest in adding Qualls appear to be the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, and Cardinals, with the Mariners and Mets jumping into the fray if he sticks with the D-Backs into the winter. For Rauch, the list is the Angels, Tigers, Brewers, and Cardinals, with the Mariners possibly stepping up in the offseason.
And with that, we have the final edition of the D-Backs Deadline Possibilities 2009. Psyched for the 2010 edition already. :-P My next post will likely take a little longer, as I'll look into the seasons of the Futurebacks Fifty - the D-Backs top-50 prospects according to Scout.com (because if it's top-50, you're getting just about everybody at some point, so one source will do), likely starting from 41-50 and going in sets of ten per post.
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