TWG Exclusive - The Phillies/M's/Jays/A's Halladay/Lee Trade

First, I feel it necessary to mention that I've expanded the trade to add what the Jays are doing with Oakland, swapping former-Phillies OF prospect Michael Taylor for 3B/1B Brett Wallace, essentially making what was originally conceived as a three-team trade (although that could easily be broken up into two two-team deals as well) into a four-team trade to add more glitzy appeal for everyone trying to cement it as one of the biggest, most dramatic, and most interesting trades in history because, well, it is. So here is the entirety of the trade:

Phillies get:
RHP Roy Halladay from Toronto
RHP Philippe Aumont from Seattle
OF Tyson Gillies from Seattle
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez from Seattle

M's get:
LHP Cliff Lee from Philadelphia

Jays get:
RHP Kyle Drabek from Philadelphia
C Travis D'Arnaud from Philadelphia
1B/3B Brett Wallace from Oakland

A's get:
OF Michael Taylor from Philadelphia

And, to help keep everything straight (although the deal is fairly simplistic, essentially three two-team trades mashed together):

Phillies give up:
LHP Cliff Lee to Seattle
RHP Kyle Drabek to Toronto
C Travis D'Arnaud to Toronto
OF Michael Taylor to Oakland

M's give up:
RHP Philippe Aumont to Philadelphia
OF Tyson Gillies to Philadelphia
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez to Philadelphia

Jays give up:
RHP Roy Halladay to Philadelphia

A's give up:
1B/3B Brett Wallace to Toronto

Also, a brief view of each prospect, his expected ceiling, and the season each just finished up:

To Philadelphia:
RHP Philippe Aumont - Already a reliever, hip problems took him out of the rotation at the young age of 20. Also has makeup problems, having broken his non-throwing hand punching a locker. Had a 3.24 ERA in 33.1 innings at Hi-A High Desert and a 5.09 ERA in 17.2 innings at AA West Tennessee, with the ERA spike both due to control failings (11 walks in those 17.2 innings) and bad luck (10.7 hits/9 innings cannot accompany 12.2 K/9 innings without some fluky BABIP, or maybe it's just me)
OF Tyson Gillies - Extremely fast (stole 44 bases in '09), but yet, despite an OPS of .916 and nine home runs this year at Hi-A High Desert, doesn't appear to have a build that would allow for that to carry over any sort of power to the majors. Seems like a Juan Pierre-type to me, a guy who relies completely on OBP to have any sort of offensive usefulness, and will need to become a great defender to be an everyday guy. However, there is promise for this, as his OBP last season was .430.
RHP Juan Carlos Ramirez - Unlike Aumont, has actually stuck in the rotation, but has had some mixed results in the minors. Hasn't posted an ERA below 4 in three years since coming to America from the Venezuelan Summer League, although this was at age 18 in Short-season A, 19 in Mid-a, and 20 in Hi-A. Just posted an ERA of 5.12 in 27 starts and one relief appearance at High Desert, so expect him to repeat the level.

To Jays:
RHP Kyle Drabek - The guy the Jays have wanted as part of a Philadelphia-Halladay deal since last season. The son of Dave Drabek, a former major-league pitcher, Kyle dominated Hi-A in 9 starts and a relief appearance with a 2.48 ERA before being promoted to AA and putting up a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts and a relief appearance there. Will be in AAA to start '10, and could be ready for a full-time major-league starting gig in 2011. Good metrics, although with a significant K-rate dip across the Hi-A to AA jump, great at limiting walks, and could be a top-line starter.
C Travis D'Arnaud - Decent, but not great, throwing arm, and a solid bat for the position. Threw out 23% of base-stealers in '09, and put up an OPS of .738 at AA. Needs to get on base more than the .319 clip he posted.
1B/3B Brett Wallace - A quick riser through the minors, made it from Mid-A at 21 out of college to AAA in about 1 1/3 seasons at age 22. Will be a major-leaguer next year, and although his defense is suspect at third, he has the bat and power potential to make it as a first-baseman if necessary. Smacked 20 home runs and held an .822 OPS at three stops in '09, including a shift from St. Louis' AAA affiliate in the PCL to Oakland's AAA affiliate in the PCL as a part of the Matt Holliday trade. The best pure bat involved in this deal.

To A's:
OF Michael Taylor - A guy you're probably going to see sometime in 2010, just posted an OPS of .944 across AA and AAA. Is a corner outfielder, so his bat will have to produce, but an OBP pushing .400 and 20 home runs in a minor-league season, especially at the high levels, is pretty darned good.

And now, I'll break down the deal by team:

For the A's:
Starting with the A's because it's the simplest part of the deal. They trade a better major-league-ready bat at a position (1B/DH, as his 3B defense was sufficiently horrific, although I listed him there just in case Toronto gives it a shot) they're over-stocked at in the majors with Chris Carter, Daric Barton, and Jake Fox for a bat that people have differing opinions on, but plays in the OF, where they were in greater need of offensive help. It's hard to say who got the better player of the Wallace/Taylor swap aspect of this, but I tend to think that Toronto did, and Oakland knows it, but the position need made it make sense for both sides.

For the M's:
The M’s have had the best off-season in baseball. As executives continue to undervalue OBP and spend fortunes to get top-line starting pitching, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik now has assembled two-headed OBP monster of Ichiro and Figgins to cause absolute havoc for 162 games, and assembled the best 1-2 starting pitching tandem in the game today in Felix Hernandez and Lee. The last tandem I've seen that is in the same ballpark is Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling from the Diamondbacks of the early 2000's. And when you look at the quality of prospects the Phillies gave up for their ace (future top-line starter potential, top catching prospect, major-league-ready corner outfield speed/power/on-base bat) in comparison to what the M's gave up for theirs (future closer potential, hit-or-miss starting pitcher prospect who has done nothing special in the low minors, OF with speed but questionable power), you start to understand just how much of a heist the M's pulled. They also are going to pay Lee $8M next season, while the Phillies are paying Halladay around $13.5M, and are extending him at $20M per for three seasons with a vesting option for one or two more seasons. Whether or not the M's can retain Lee after this season is another question, but they clearly saw that the Angels were losing talent and their grasp on the AL West, and saw an opportunity to take the AL West by storm in 2010. If the M's can retain Lee (they were in the Jason Bay sweepstakes for a while, so perhaps they have enough money to throw at him), they are dominant for years headlining Felix and Lee, and give Felix all the more incentive to extend and stay in Seattle long-term. That, and they didn't gut the best prospects out of their system or trade their premier young talent (i.e. Brandon Morrow, Dustin Ackley). Can't argue with that.

For the Jays:
They got the guy they wanted in Drabek, but yet they really ought to have dealt Halladay back at the deadline when they could have gotten more for him. Then again, you can't blame Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos for that, since he wasn't the GM at that time. By being creative with Seattle and Oakland, Toronto got their top-line starter prospect and a corner-infield power bat to feature with Travis Snyder and Adam Lind. That's a pretty fearsome, young, and inexpensive combination for a rebuilding team.

For the Philles:
Lee is not better than Halladay (Halladay has done it more consistently in the tougher league), but the difference is not worth the difference in quality of prospects the Phillies gave up and took back. As a friend of mine pointed out, Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro was in "make a huge trade to show we're still big-time contenders" mode, and he got taken to school by Zduriencik. This is especially depressing for Philly fans when you realize that he could have had BOTH Lee and Halladay last year at the deadline for an approximate combined three years of control for eight prospects, and guaranteed themselves two World Series rings. The Yankees don’t beat Halladay-Lee-Hamels the way they beat Lee-Hamels-etc., as Halladay's calling card for years has been shutting down the AL East. Instead, he overvalues his prospects, half-asses his run for the World Series by getting just Lee, loses, and makes a panic-deal to try to give a façade of activity. Ever since inheriting a championship team, Amaro has done nothing helpful for the Phillies. Polanco? No arbitration for Park? Not assembling the best top-3 of a rotation possibly in baseball history when you already have a stacked lineup, and without sacrificing any of that stacked lineup? Miserable. I’d be sick if I was a Phillies fan. And the excuse now for dealing Lee is that they are trying to sustain their run at championships for a longer-term with Halladay in the fold for a greater number of years, and prospects to replenish the system and Lee likely gone in 2011. Problem is, they're not going to get 2 World Series rings within this Halladay deal, and they could have guaranteed that if they'd made this deal without Lee last trade deadline.

Overall, Zduriencik built up his team to make a World Series run in 2010, and frankly I like how their roster looks in the short-term more than how the Phillies look. Toronto re-stocked for the future, and Oakland made its prospects and young pieces make more sense. Philadelphia, however, didn't really make anything more than a lateral move, and won't be beating New York anytime soon with what they have, which is horrible when you consider just what could have been.